Approaching the delivery of the month, Lunxi closed up 2.37% overnight, and today's increase fell, up 0.07% as of 11:34; Driven by London tin and the domestic short-term sentiment is better, Shanghai tin closed up 3.41% overnight, and today's gains narrowed slightly, closing up 3.16% as of noon.
Changes in the trend of Shanghai and London tin futures:
Spot prices
Since late April, the average spot price of SMM 1# tin has shown a range-bound trend, and it has risen sharply today, up 3.45% from the previous day to 269,500 yuan/ton. Yesterday, SMM survey showed that the willingness of downstream enterprises to buy is still sluggish, most of the trading enterprises reflect scattered transactions, some trading enterprises have less spot supply, and a few trading companies have about two cars. The overall transaction in the spot market was relatively flat.
SMM1# tin spot average price change trend:
Supply side
In terms of output: According to SMM research, the domestic refined tin output reached 16,545 tons in April, an increase of 6.36% month-on-month and 10.64% year-on-year. Looking ahead to May, most smelters in Yunnan are expected to maintain normal production, but the timing of the resumption of production of one company that has been suspended due to handover issues is unknown. In Jiangxi, most smelters plan to maintain normal production, and a few are expected to achieve a slight increase in output. In addition, a smelter in Hubei is planning to resume production due to the abundant supply of scrap in the market. Most smelters in other regions have basically maintained normal production. SMM expects domestic refined tin output to reach 17,015 tons in May, up 2.84% month-on-month and 8.65% year-on-year.
Changes in domestic refined tin output:
inventory
Domestic: At present, the total social inventory of tin ingots in different regions in China is at a high level, with an inventory of about 18,200 tons on May 10, 728 tons more than the inventory data before the holiday (April 26). During the week (May 6-May 10), the range of tin prices fluctuated, which effectively stimulated the enthusiasm of downstream procurement and promoted the increase in orders. Most trading companies reported that the market was active in the middle of the week, and the trading volume increased significantly, and the market transaction gradually returned to stable in the following two days.
In the spot market, the inventory of small-brand tin ingots has been rapidly reduced due to its good sales due to its better prices. Comparatively speaking, due to the increase in the storage capacity of the delivery brand tin ingots in the previous period, some of the tin ingots were used for warehouse receipt registration, and the other part flowed into the spot market. According to the analysis of market dynamics, the overall trading of the spot market during the week (May 6-May 10) was active, although there was inventory accumulation in the short term, but looking forward to the future, the market is expected to usher in the stage of inventory digestion.
LME inventory: Since May, LME tin inventory has changed steadily, and as of May 10, 35 tons have been removed from the warehouse compared with the previous week (May 3). Entering the week, the inventory fell by 40 tons on May 13, and the decline came to the Port Klang warehouse.
Changes in the total social inventory of tin ingots and LME tin inventory by region:
On the demand side
According to SMM research, it is expected that the operating rate of tin solder enterprises in April will be basically flat month-on-month. Most downstream solder companies reported that the order volume in April was relatively stable and not affected by the holiday factor. However, a small number of companies said that the continuous rise in tin prices has had a restraining effect on the willingness of terminal companies to place orders, so the overall order volume may decline to a certain extent compared with March. Despite this, judging from the overall trend, the output and operating rate of downstream tin solder enterprises are still expected to remain stable in April.
SMM outlook
On the whole, the domestic refined tin output on the supply side of the tin market is expected to increase in May, the inventory is optimistic about the future digestion, and the output of tin solder enterprises on the demand side may remain stable in April. The current short-term sentiment in the futures market is good, and the tin price may fluctuate greatly in the short term.