On May 13, CCTV News released three important news in succession, all of which were related to Huangyan Island. One is that the Chinese Coast Guard ship has carried out regular training in the waters near Scarborough Shoal, the other is the first aerial footage of Scarborough Shoal and nearby waters has been released for the first time, and the last is the details of the Chinese Coast Guard's Chuanshan ship recently carried out marine lifesaving training in the waters of Scarborough Shoal. Taken together, we can draw an obvious conclusion, which is that China has fully achieved control over Scarborough Shoal.
In addition, the timing of these three messages is also stuck at a very important juncture, because on May 11, the Philippine presidential office issued a "special" statement, saying that a large number of Chinese ships, including coast guard ships, were operating at Xianbin Reef in the Spratly Islands to carry out "land reclamation" activities. In this regard, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a regular press conference that the Philippine accusations are groundless and pure rumors. Therefore, CCTV has released 3 pieces of news about Scarborough Shoal in a row, is there a hint of it? Is it preparing for the reclamation of Scarborough Shoal?
Regardless of whether CCTV's move is a coincidence or not, judging from the current situation, the Philippines has begun to challenge China's bottom line on the South China Sea issue, and now it is time to teach the Philippines a lesson.
Scarborough Shoal
Twenty-five years have passed since 1999, when the Philippine landing ship "Sierra Madre" "beached" at Second Thomas Shoal. Since taking office, the Marcos Jr. administration has continued to break the consensus reached between China and the Philippines, and with the support of the United States, it has continued to try to repair and strengthen the broken ship "beached" on Ren'ai Jiao.
The United States has also had to move forward on this issue, frequently reiterating that the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty between the United States and the Philippines is as solid as a rock, and even stating that China has seriously underestimated the possibility of a conflict between China and the United States in the South China Sea, and cheering for the Philippines to provoke China.
In addition, the Philippine military has been preparing for the establishment of a permanent military base at Second Thomas Shoal since last year. Even in order to achieve this purpose, the Philippine Congress has specifically increased the budget for the establishment of a permanent military base at Second Thomas Shoal in the Philippine 2024 military budget.
In other words, the situation in the South China Sea is unlikely to cool down this year, but the Philippines, with the support of the United States, is taking increasingly aggressive actions in the South China Sea, which will further worsen the situation in the South China Sea, and even does not rule out the possibility of a direct conflict between China and the Philippines.
It is clear that the Philippines is planning to take unilateral action over the dispute over islands and reefs in the South China Sea. In response, China should take punitive action against the Philippines, and the most effective and direct way is to reclaim land on Scarborough Shoal.
In fact, in the past few years, there has been talk of land reclamation at Scarborough Shoal, because the reclamation of Scarborough Shoal will play an important role in stabilizing the situation in the South China Sea and consolidating the South China Sea strategy.
On the one hand, China's land reclamation at Scarborough Shoal could send a very clear signal to the Philippines that if the Philippines continues to jump up and down in the South China Sea, the next time it may be Ren'ai Jiao. On the other hand, it will also further consolidate China's South China Sea strategy. Scarborough Shoal is located in China's Zhongsha Islands, only 130 kilometers away from the Philippines and 300 kilometers away from the Philippine capital.
In addition, China has completed the reclamation of Woody Island and Subi Island, and has already carried out military deployments, which will form a super triangle in the South China Sea if Scarborough Shoal can complete the reclamation and military deployment. This triangle will effectively strengthen China's control over the South China Sea, and can even form a de facto air defense identification zone in the South China Sea, which can monitor the entire South China Sea, which will form an effective deterrent to the surrounding debris and foreign forces, and further extend the mainland's strategic buffer zone outward.
In addition, there are complex reasons why China did not choose to reclaim Scarborough Shoal in the past. On the one hand, after the resignation of Benigno Aquino III, Duterte came to power, and Duterte chose to directly abolish the South China Sea arbitration, ushering in an improvement in China-Philippines relations. On this basis, for the sake of China-Philippines relations and to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea, we have not included Scarborough Shoal in our reclamation of islands and reefs in the South China Sea.
On the other hand, in order to ensure long-term peace and stability in the South China Sea, we have been promoting the implementation of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea and hoping to institutionalize stability in the South China Sea. After all, the Philippines is not the only ASEAN country that has a dispute with China over islands and reefs, and if we take tough measures against the disputed Scarborough Shoal, it is very likely that it will lead to a collective backlash from ASEAN, making it difficult to advance the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, so Scarborough Shoal is not the best choice. This is not to say that China does not have the ability to reclaim Scarborough Shoal, but rather a decision based on the overall situation in the South China Sea.
In the past, we have reached a consensus with ASEAN countries that disputes over islands and reefs in the South China Sea should not affect the development of bilateral relations, that ASEAN countries should not take sides between China and the United States, and that disputes in the South China Sea should be "shelved". But now all the reasons for China's patience have been unilaterally torn up by the Philippines.
Max
When Duterte was in office, China and the Philippines reached a "gentlemen's agreement", under which China agreed to allow the Philippines to send daily supplies to the "beached" ship out of humanitarian terms, but the Philippines must notify China before making supplies, and cannot carry building materials. However, after Marcos Jr. came to power, he not only tore up the "gentlemen's agreement" between China and the Philippines, but also tore up the "new model" of transportation and subsidies reached by China and the Philippines again in the following year or so. In addition, although the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea is still being promoted, it has once again fallen into a dilemma due to the influence of the Philippines.
Therefore, on the issue of the South China Sea, since the Philippines has to eat and punish wine if it does not toast, then we do not have to be polite, and we need to sacrifice a "killing stick".