Recently, there have been two new changes in the worrying Russia-Ukraine conflict.
One is the front line.
The defense system of the Ukrainian army in the western part of Avdeyevka has fallen into a complete collapse, and the Western main battle tanks and armored combat vehicles on which high hopes have been placed on have been blown up one after another.
According to the Russian side, the Ukrainian army lost 1,050 servicemen in one day.
The commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky, called the situation "difficult".
Ukrainian Defense Ministry spokesman Razutkin said that in order to defeat Russia, a signal of a general military mobilization of the whole country was issued.
The other is that Russia and Ukraine have both made important personnel adjustments, and a personnel "big competition" is coming.
Explosive news broke from the Ukrainian side: on May 13, the Ukrainian commander in charge of the front-line operations in Kharkiv had been replaced.
On the same day, Zelensky dismissed Alekshenko, the first deputy head of the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service, and appointed Lukhovsky as deputy director.
Why is this important position being replaced?
First, there must always be people on the front line who are responsible for the defeat on the battlefield.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian army posted a military intelligence report on social media in the early morning of May 13, saying: "The enemy is currently achieving a tactical victory. ”
Second, Zelensky's life is important.
Ukraine's National Security Service said on May 7 that it had captured two colonels of Ukraine's National Security Service who attempted to assassinate Zelensky and tried to guide Russian missiles to strike Budanov, the head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Service.
With such a major security breach, it is natural to "clean up the portal".
In addition, there is also news from the Russian side: an expert specializing in "economics" has been sent to command an army of millions.
Have you ever seen this amazing operation?
On May 7, after Putin's re-election, the outside world speculated about how the personnel of the next government agency will be arranged.
After five days of deliberation, the new cabinet list came out.
On May 12, Putin nominated to the Federation Council (the upper house of parliament) the heads of the main departments of the new government.
Prime Minister Mishustin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Foreign Intelligence Service Chief Naryshkin, Emergency Situations Minister Kulenkov, Internal Affairs Minister Kolokoltsev, Justice Minister Tchaichenko, and FSB Head Bortnikov remain in their posts.
But former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who is regarded by the West as Putin's cronies, was transferred to the post of secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation.
And Belousov, an expert specializing in "economic development" and previously served as the first deputy prime minister, served as Russia's defense minister.
As soon as the news came out, the foreign media were shocked.
Bloomberg said Putin's nomination of an economist for defense minister came as a surprise.
Belousov, an economist with little military experience, will come as a surprise to some for his nomination, according to the BBC.
According to CNN, Putin chose Belousov because of rising military spending and the need for reform.
The Financial Times called it an "unexpected move".
Many people may be relatively unfamiliar with Belousov.
He was born on March 17, 1959 and holds a doctorate in economics. In 1981, he graduated with honors from the Faculty of Economics of Lomonosov Moscow State University.
Since 2000, he has served as a supernumerary adviser to the Russian Prime Minister, Minister of Economic Development, Assistant to the President, First Deputy Prime Minister, etc., is a real economist, but also a civilian official, and now the Russian-Ukrainian conflict situation is stalemate, it stands to reason that changing the commander on the spot is a taboo for soldiers, such a 180-degree turn, the outside world is not shocked.
So why did Putin make a seemingly "high-risk" personnel transfer?
According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, "on today's battlefield, whoever is more open to innovation is the winner," and military spending is now comparable to that of the late Soviet Union, which is a red flag.
He also said that the current military budget is 6.7% of GDP.
When the United States and the Soviet Union were vying for hegemony, the United States' military spending accounted for less than 4.5% of GDP.
It can be seen that Russia's current military spending and economic development are not too optimistic.
So a major change has to be made.
Therefore, the only way to innovate and maintain economic stability is to let Belousov, the "sworn enemy" of Russia's financial interest groups and first deputy prime minister in charge of the economy, "put out the fire."
As we all know, the most important thing to fight a war is money, and whoever has more money can buy more and more advanced weapons, and whoever has more money can develop and produce weapons to defeat the enemy, and at the same time, logistics support can also keep up with the energy.
And in fact, it is not the Minister of Defense who commands a war, just like Xiao He in the Chu-Han dispute, what he has to do is to send troops and transport food and do a good job in logistics support.
The Russian version of "Han Shin" is Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff, who is responsible for all kinds of planning and commanding troops to fight, and he is still in office.
This is what the Russian side is saying, for the sake of innovation, in order to better coordinate the economy, and to serve the battlefield.
There are two important backgrounds to this major personnel change.
First, the United States has stepped up military aid to Ukraine.
Not long ago, U.S. President Joe Biden signed a $95 billion foreign military aid bill, most of which went to Ukraine.
However, at present, this military aid has not yet reached the hands of the Ukrainian army, and the Russian army can take advantage of this "window period" to further adjust the economy and resist the upcoming US military aid by creating the maximum effect of the economy.
Second, Western sanctions against Russia have not been successful.
Under all kinds of outrageous sanctions imposed by the United States and the West on Russia, Russia has shown strong resilience to pressure.
Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto also said that the economic sanctions imposed by the West on Russia have failed and failed to achieve the expected containment effect.
And the United States is still not giving up.
On May 2, the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions against a number of Russian organizations and businesses.
Therefore, the benefits of this major personnel adjustment to Russia are obvious:
First of all, Belousov's "economic" background may be more able to draw up a national defense policy that is in line with the overall interests and development needs of the country based on his professional advantages, which will help promote Russia's military modernization and equipment upgrading, strictly investigate and deal with corruption in the army, and improve the combat effectiveness of the Russian army.
On the other hand, although the Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its third year, one day this conflict will end and will move towards negotiations. Perhaps arranging Belousov to take charge of a million-strong army can also make sufficient preparations for future Russian-Ukrainian negotiations.
What about Shoigu, the controversial former defense minister?
Shoigu, born in 1955, served in the Soviet Airborne Forces and is a veteran military general.
Before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Shoigu made a lot of efforts in rectifying military discipline, reforming the military system, and developing military equipment, so that the Russian army gradually recovered its combat effectiveness, and achieved good results.
However, after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Shoigu's performance was not so bright, first of all, he turned the blitzkrieg at the beginning into a passive war of attrition later. The second is the Wagner rebellion led by Prigozhin in June last year, also directed against Shoigu.
Plus on April 24, Shoigu's most effective deputy, Ivanov, will be detained until June 23 on a criminal case of corruption.
The damage to combat effectiveness caused by corruption within the army is extremely fatal, and Shoigu cannot escape the blame.
These are probably the main reasons for Shoigu's reshuffle.
However, the situation cannot be seen at face value.
Although Shoigu seems to have been "thrown into the cold", Shoigu's new post shows that Putin may be taking action in strengthening the military-industrial complex in preparation for a long-term conflict.
This is not negligible.
In the face of this major personnel adjustment by Russia, Ukraine is nervous.
Ukrainian economist Kushi said on Facebook that the proposed appointment was "bad news" for Ukraine. The reason is that "everything is moving in the direction of a sharp increase in the activity of the Russian military-industrial complex and the growth of Russian military-industrial production."
On the whole, what Putin needs more now is "Xiao He" who controls the overall situation. On the contrary, the Ukrainian side has also made personnel adjustments, and what is needed is to unite internal forces to resist the offensive of the Russian army.
In this "big competition" between Russia and Ukraine, who is better? How will the United States and the West intervene?
We'll see.