Source: China Youth Daily
China Youth Daily and China Youth Network Intern Reporter Zhao Limei Reporter Zhang Junbin Source: China Youth Daily (2024-05-14 05 Edition)
The policies introduced by various localities to optimize the real estate market have "rolled up". Chengdu, Hangzhou, Xi'an and other hot cities have completely canceled purchase restrictions, and the settlement policy is also relaxing. At present, in the "city-specific policies", the real estate optimization policies that have been introduced one after another are not only in line with market demand, but also hidden behind the "war for people", and the "war for people" is not only to grab the "population", but also to grab talents.
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Housing purchase restrictions, which have been in place for 14 years, have become a thing of the past in many cities.
On May 9, two hot cities, Hangzhou and Xi'an, announced the complete cancellation of housing purchase restrictions. More than 10 days ago, Chengdu announced the complete cancellation of housing purchase restrictions. Up to now, in addition to the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, only Hainan Province, Tianjin City, and Zhuhai City in Guangdong Province are still in a state of partial relaxation of purchase restrictions.
What are the deep meanings behind the comprehensive relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in many cities? What will be the impact?
Some people want to "buy the bottom" and some people are waiting
Among these cities, Hangzhou has attracted the most attention. On the morning of May 9, the Office of the Leading Group for the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Hangzhou issued the "Notice on Optimizing and Adjusting the Real Estate Market Regulation and Control Policies" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), clarifying that the purchase of housing within the scope of Hangzhou will no longer review the qualifications for house purchase. The new policy of the Hangzhou property market is also known as the "Hangzhou Seven Articles".
For a long time, as a hot city, Hangzhou's property market is relatively strong, and the comprehensive cancellation of housing purchase restrictions is undoubtedly "a stone to stir up a thousand waves" for the current property market, which is also quickly reflected in the stock market. On the morning of the introduction of Hangzhou's new policy, the stock prices of many listed real estate companies rose significantly.
After the release of the new policy, the number of second-hand housing listings in Hangzhou surged. According to data from the Hangzhou Shell Research Institute, compared with the single-day average in April, the number of second-hand housing inquiries on the first day of the new deal increased by 54%, and the number of new second-hand housing listings increased by 91%. On May 11 alone, 939 new listings were added to the Hangzhou property market, including 180 prices and 2,033 prices.
Some people's willingness to buy a house has risen, and many new real estate projects in Hangzhou were crowded on the first weekend after the implementation of the new policy.
In addition, there are also many potential buyers who just need and just change (improved just need) and have begun to "gear up". A property owner who lives in the suburbs of Hangzhou noticed that the prices of the properties he was concerned about had dropped considerably. He said: "I want to buy everywhere I look. At the beginning, he bought the house when the house price was high, and the price of this house was "cut in half". Now he plans to sell the house as a down payment for a new home, and in his opinion, it seems that now is the time to "buy the bottom" and "earn back what he lost".
At present, many people in Hangzhou are waiting to see the reaction of the property market after the new policy, waiting for a suitable time to "get on the bus" or replace the existing houses. At the same time, they are also worried that they will become "pick-up men" once housing prices continue to decline.
On the first weekend after the new policy was introduced, Zhang Fan (pseudonym), a real estate agent in Hangzhou, kept switching between multiple home buying groups to answer questions from people who wanted to buy a house. The question he gets asked the most is: "Can I settle down when I buy a house?" "When is the opportunity to buy a house better, is there room to fall?" "Is so-and-so community worth entering?"
"When is the time to buy a house with a better chance, this is an eternal problem." Zhang Fan suggested that after buyers choose a house, they should see whether the price after bargaining meets their expectations, and then decide whether to "get on the car". In his opinion, Hangzhou's property market does not lack purchasing power, but many people are worried that they have become a "pick-up man". He still maintains optimistic expectations for Hangzhou's property market, and in his opinion, if the house price reaches the right position, the transaction volume will still rise.
On the first day of the new deal, the number of housing transactions rebounded significantly. According to data from the Hangzhou Municipal Bureau of Housing Security and Real Estate, on May 9, 160 new commercial houses in Hangzhou were sold, an increase of 8 units from May 8, an increase of 5.3% month-on-month, and 92.8% higher than the average level of the past week. There were 259 units of stock houses in Hangzhou in a single day, a decrease of 9 units from May 8, a decrease of 3.4% month-on-month, and 137.6% higher than the average level of the past week.
As a hot city in the northwest, Xi'an's comprehensive cancellation of purchase restrictions has also attracted a lot of attention. A number of intermediaries said that after the implementation of the new policy, there were more people looking at houses, but most of them took a wait-and-see attitude. Zhuge housing data shows that as of 19:00 on May 13, there were 3,264 new listings in Xi'an on that day, up 5.73% month-on-month, and 1,354 listings were reduced, down 0.17% month-on-month. From May 9th to 11th, the number of price reduction listings in Xi'an has been decreasing.
From May, there will be a wave of housing policy "relaxation"
The speed of Hangzhou's one-time comprehensive lifting of housing purchase restrictions exceeded many people's expectations.
The executive vice president of the East China Region of the China Index Research Institute believes that the "Hangzhou Seven Articles" new deal is another blockbuster new deal in the Hangzhou property market after the "Hangzhou Five Articles" new policy (lifting restrictions on the purchase of second-hand houses) on March 14.
In mid-March, Hangzhou just lifted restrictions on the purchase of second-hand houses. According to Zhang Fan, during the "May Day" holiday, there were foreign buying groups in Hangzhou, and more than 20 suites were purchased on the same day. He said that these people bought a limited-price house, and one square meter was several thousand yuan lower than the surrounding area.
Gao Yuansheng believes that the full liberalization of housing purchase restrictions in Hangzhou, coupled with other supporting policies, will be conducive to the active release of effective demand. "On the one hand, you can settle down by buying a house and absorb more new demand in the province or abroad; On the other hand, the demand for local improvement may be accelerated. ”
Gao Yuansheng said that the monitoring data of the China Index Research Institute showed that in the first four months of this year, the popularity of new housing transactions in Hangzhou continued to decline. Based on this, the purchase restrictions on new houses in Hangzhou have been lifted again after nearly seven and a half years, with the aim of stimulating more potential demand. Catalyzed by favorable policies, Hangzhou's new housing market will see a slow and moderate recovery.
Yan Jinqiang, chief analyst of Weifang Research Institute and deputy secretary-general of the Real Estate Professional Committee of the China Urban Economics Association, believes that in the short term, the new policy will have a certain stimulating effect. However, in the long run, it remains to be seen whether it can drive the rebound of Hangzhou's property market. In his view, "the force of the policy side cannot comprehensively solve the systemic problems existing in the current property market." ”
The Xi'an property market is also under pressure. According to the statistics of the China Index Research Institute, in the first quarter alone, the inventory level of new residential buildings in Xi'an has risen to 12.53 million square meters, and the decommissioning period has reached 12.8 months.
Shi Rui, general manager of Xi'an Company of the China Index Research Institute, believes that the background of the introduction of the policy in Xi'an is that the Xi'an property market is insufficient in the traditional "gold three silver four", and the housing inventory has been fluctuating and rising. As an important city in the west, Xi'an and Chengdu have strong synchronization of real estate market policies, so Xi'an's round of liberalization is also expected. This move is also to fully open up the channel for foreign buyers to buy houses, attract the surrounding areas and even the five northwestern provinces to buy houses, and inject new impetus into the market.
At present, more and more cities have fully relaxed purchase restrictions. Gao Yuansheng expects that in the future, cities with stricter purchase restrictions may continue to optimize their purchase restriction policies. Core cities also have certain adjustment expectations for reducing down payment ratios, reducing mortgage interest rates, and reducing transaction taxes and fees.
Yan Jinqiang believes that Hangzhou's official participation in the cancellation of purchase restrictions has also opened up the imagination space for the further liberalization of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities. "According to the current situation, this possibility is gradually increasing."
Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, believes that the optimization and adjustment of Hangzhou's real estate policy is of great significance and has strong inspiration for other cities. In his view, starting from May, various localities may usher in an unprecedented wave of policy "relaxation".
The "roll-up" policy and the "war for people" behind it
Hangzhou's new real estate policy has triggered a "blowout" of housing purchase consultations. According to the "Notice", Hangzhou will also optimize the points settlement policy, and non-registered persons who have obtained legal property rights in Hangzhou can apply for settlement. At the beginning of the policy's release, some people misinterpreted this policy as "buying a house can be settled".
On the afternoon of May 9, He Chenyu, deputy director of the Real Estate Industry Development Department of Hangzhou Municipal Housing and Housing Management Bureau, said that within the existing framework of points settlement, it is planned to greatly increase the weight of self-owned housing, and specific implementation rules will be issued in the future.
Hangzhou's attraction to foreign population, especially many young people, "prefer" Hangzhou, and the implementation of the new policy means that more people have the opportunity to become new citizens of Hangzhou.
In order to settle down and invest, some people focus on the "old and dilapidated small" by the West Lake in Hangzhou. There are also people who are optimistic about the "old and dilapidated", and they are betting that these places will be "demolished and built" in the future.
"Can I settle down if I buy a house?" In the past few days, Zhang Fan has been asked this question too many times. At present, Hangzhou has not issued specific rules. However, many people believe that "the points for buying a house will increase".
Behind the relaxation of the settlement policy in hot cities is the increasingly fierce "war for talent". Nanjing, Chengdu and Hangzhou, as new first-tier cities, took turns to "grab people". Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Xi'an, which have recently fully lifted purchase restrictions, and Nanjing, which will be fully liberalized in 2023, are all cities with a net inflow of population. By the end of 2023, the permanent residents of Chengdu, Hangzhou, Xi'an, and Nanjing were 21.403 million, 12.522 million, 13.0782 million, and 9.547 million, an increase of 267,000, 146,000, 82,300, and 55,900 respectively over the previous year.
Jimmy Chen, a senior practitioner in the real estate industry and a respondent in the real estate field of Zhihu, saw that the policies introduced by various places to optimize the real estate market were "rolled up".
Two days after the introduction of Hangzhou's new policy, Nanjing further relaxed the conditions for settlement. On the same day, the Nanjing Municipal Public Security Bureau issued the "Notice on Matters Concerning the Settlement of Legal and Stable Residence", which mentioned that non-Nanjing household registration persons who have a legal and stable residence in Nanjing and actually reside in Nanjing can directly apply for settlement.
Nanjing directly canceled the points settlement model. Yan Yuejin believes that although Nanjing's new settlement policy does not directly specify that "you can settle down if you buy a house", from the actual implementation situation, as long as you buy a house and have a real estate property certificate, you can move your household registration and settle down.
More than 10 days ago, on April 29, the first day after the full cancellation of purchase restrictions, Chengdu supported qualified talents to apply for affordable housing and enjoy the support policy of reserved housing for commercial housing.
"There is only a potential demand for housing in a city if there is a sufficient net inflow of people." Jimmy Chen said that the full abolition of purchase restrictions is not only a kind of macro control of the real estate market, but also the real estate optimization policies that have been introduced in the "city-specific policies" in various places, in fact, there is a "war for people", and "war for people" is not only a "population", but also a talent grab.
More high-quality homes are on the way
Looking at Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Xi'an, when they proposed to fully relax the purchase restriction policy, they not only opened a number of policy "toolboxes" to release the demand of the consumer side, but also made efforts from the supply side to provide better products for home buyers.
These cities have sent a clear signal: building "good houses" and increasing the supply of high-quality housing are at the heart of these policies to make people live better.
"We must work hard to build a good house." This year, Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, once again stressed that housing development, in the final analysis, is to make the masses live better. He hopes that multi-industry cross-border collaboration can be made to jointly build green, low-carbon, intelligent and safe houses, so that the masses can live healthily and use safely. Green and low carbon is one of the hallmarks of a good house.
"Good houses" are diverse. Chengdu proposes to promote the use of the first floor of overhead floors for the setting of public service spaces, increase the proportion of semi-open spaces such as residential balconies, promote the development of low-density and high-quality residential products in suburbs (cities) and counties, and further increase the supply of high-quality housing. Hangzhou also proposes to promote the supply of high-quality housing, including improving the supporting facilities around the land plots, supporting the development of low-density and high-quality residential products according to local conditions, and encouraging green, low-carbon, and high-tech buildings, so as to better meet the diversified needs of the people for "good houses". Xi'an, on the other hand, focuses on high-quality residential construction with a focus on house type innovation.
A good house needs to have a good mechanism as a guarantee. It is worth noting that Xi'an also proposed to improve the return visit and complaint handling mechanism for housing delivery quality, put an end to violations of laws and regulations such as reducing standards and allocations, and changing plans without authorization, so as to continuously improve delivery satisfaction.
Yan Yuejin said: "'Good house' is not a simple concept at the architectural level, but also from the transaction and management mechanism, reflecting the policy optimization idea of finding market pain points and solving pain points. ”
2024-05-14 Edition 05