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First, the price trend
Recently, the domestic POM market has been running sideways, and the spot price is relatively firm. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of May 13, the mixed price of domestic POM was 12,700 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price on May 1.
2. Cause analysis
Raw materials:
The domestic methanol market as a whole is mainly narrow and higher. Recently, the fundamental contradiction of methanol is not large, the inventory of mainland sample enterprises is low, the shipping pressure of enterprises is not large, and some enterprises are sourcing out, the market atmosphere is relatively high, and the overall market is mainly running strongly. Downstream MTBE, after the start of construction of Yuhuang, the output of next week will be affected, and the demand for MTBE will increase; Downstream chloride, the device returned to normal after the shutdown and maintenance of the mainstream factory in Shandong, and the demand for chloride increased. The short-term domestic methanol market is mainly consolidated, and the overall support for POM is acceptable.
On the supply side:
Recently, domestic POM enterprises have started to run smoothly, and the overall load is about 77%, which is a narrow downward range. In the later stage, there is a maintenance plan for Shenhua Ningxia coal, and the supply is expected to shrink. At the same time, after a week of digestion, the inventory position of the polymerization plant has declined. Coupled with the rise in the price of imported materials, the confidence of manufacturers is strong, and the pricing is generally firm. Overall, the pressure on the supply side is not obvious.
On the demand side:
The stock situation of domestic POM downstream enterprises is average, and most of them just need to take goods to maintain production. The main logic of terminal factories to take goods is to maintain and digest inventory, and the circulation speed of goods in the field is slow. The release of surplus goods is not obvious, the consumption level is still under the weak trend in the early stage, and the mentality of traders is flat. Overall, the demand side has poor support for the spot price of POM.
3. Forecast for the future
The POM market has been strong recently. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants will be adjusted in a narrow range, and there will still be maintenance enterprises in the market outlook, and the pressure on the supply side will be eased. Downstream consumption follow-up remained weak, and POM long and short confrontation. It is expected that the POM market in the future may be mainly volatile.