Author: Cheng Mo
Executive summary: 1. The latest situation on the Kharkiv border; 2. A residential building in Belgorod, Russia, was hit by the wreckage of an interceptor missile; 3. Putin nominated Belousov as the new defense minister; 4. The UK quickly completed the delivery of the largest military aid to Ukraine in history; 5. Ukrainian drones continue to attack Russian oil refineries and oil storage depots; 6. The Ukrainian army destroyed 1,740 enemies in a single day, breaking the highest record in history.
The Russian army's small-scale attack on the Kharkiv border area has set off a new round of myths of the invincibility of the Russian army on the Russian and Chinese simplified Chinese networks, and many media hyped that the Russian army was directly aimed at Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine, and even fabricated lies that Zelensky had been killed. My objective comments in the past two days have been questioned by a large number of Russian fans and some pro-Ukrainian people. In this regard, while I was helpless, I resolutely and resolutely chose to ignore and despise.
Once again, I can say responsibly that the Russian army has only occupied 5 small uninhabited villages that have long been in the "gray zone" on the Russian-Ukrainian border, and the Ukrainian army has prevented the Russian army's attempts to move further. The total number of troops dispatched by the Russian army in all directions does not exceed 2,000 people, and there is no large-scale mechanized offensive hyped by some media. The so-called "gray zone" refers to the sparsely populated areas on both sides of the border between Russia and Ukraine that have not been defended for a long time.
The latest battle map drawn by the Institute for the Study of War below, as of 3 a.m. Beijing time today, clearly shows that the Russian army has penetrated up to 5 kilometers into the Russian-Ukrainian border area, and has not yet approached the preset position of the Ukrainian army about 10 kilometers away from the border. Note the ruler in the lower left corner of the image.
This agency does not assess the course of the war very well, but their descriptions of the situation and the maps of the situation drawn daily according to the latest situation are always quite accurate. So far, I haven't found any one that is more precise than they do.
(The latest situation on the Kharkiv border)
On May 12, Antony Blinken, in response to a moderator's question about whether the attempts of the Russian occupiers to advance in the Kharkiv region were caused by the delay in the provision of military assistance to Ukraine by the United States, expressed confidence that Ukrainian soldiers would hold their ground. "There is no doubt that the months-long delay in obtaining additional budgetary approval for the delivery of weapons to Ukraine has led to losses," he said...... But I believe that Ukraine can effectively hold its line of defense in the east. He also said that the United States is currently making every effort to ensure that Ukraine receives military assistance as soon as possible.
On the evening of May 12, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a regular video address, "I am particularly concerned about the Kharkiv region. The defensive battle continues, with heavy fighting taking place in most parts of our border strip. He said that some villages have become zones of hostilities in the "gray zone", and the occupiers are trying to gain a foothold in some of them and attempt to advance further into Ukrainian territory. He thanked the Ukrainian soldiers who held their ground and destroyed the occupiers.
On the same day, the commander of the 125th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade of the Ukrainian Army, Lieutenant Colonel Artur Khorbinko, made a statement specifically about the latest situation in the Kharkiv region. In his statement, he said that after the deterioration of the situation in the Kharkiv region, a large number of lies appeared on social media, claiming that the defensive positions of the Ukrainian army were captured by the Russian army, and even that part of the Ukrainian army was defeated, which is completely inconsistent with the facts.
"Whether out of ignorance of the situation or an attempt to deliberately discredit the Ukrainian army, the dissemination of false information on social networks that some Wehrmacht forces are unprepared for the enemy's offensive or, worse still, fabricating that the defending forces have failed to repel the enemy's attack and retreat from the defensive line are all lies," the statement said. The commander of the 125th Brigade said in a statement, "I responsibly state that the 125th Brigade defense area is the main direction of attack of the Russian army, and the situation, although difficult, has been brought under control." ”
"The settlements that the enemy entered were in a permanent 'gray zone', and we held our positions and inflicted huge losses on the Russian army in terms of equipment and manpower," he said. We will resolutely annihilate the enemy who enters the 'gray zone' on the Ukrainian side. ”
(The Ukrainian army on the front line is on standby)
According to the report of the Russian Ministry of Defense, at around 11:40 on the 12th, the Ukrainian army launched an attack on the residential area of Belgorod City using "Dot-U" tactical missiles, "Alder" rocket launchers and RM-70 "Vampire" rocket launchers. Russian air defense forces destroyed 6 Dot-U missiles, 4 Vampire rocket launchers and 2 Alder rocket launchers. The Russian Ministry of Defense did not report casualties.
In a statement, the Russian Defense Ministry said the wreckage of a downed Dot-U missile hit the residential building, causing the collapse of one of the outermost units. However, Belgorod Governor Gladkov then said: "The city of Belgorod was subjected to massive shelling by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, shells hit apartments directly. "Judging from the surveillance video, it is very likely that it was caused by an anti-aircraft missile launched by Russia itself.
Russian media said that while rescuers were conducting on-site searches, a second collapse occurred, and four rescuers were buried in the rubble. As of 11 a.m. Beijing time today, 13 people were killed and 20 injured in the incident.
The city of Belgorod is the capital of the Belgorod region, located 25-40 km from the Russian-Ukrainian border. Within the range of the "Dot" short-range surface-to-surface missiles and rocket artillery produced by the Ukrainian side. Since last year, the city has been repeatedly attacked by Ukrainian drones and rockets. This attack on the city of Belgorod by the Ukrainian army should be Ukraine's retaliation for Russia's large-scale attack on Kharkiv.
Russia has repeatedly and publicly threatened to use nuclear weapons to protect itself if the Russian mainland is attacked. Now that the Ukrainian army's attacks on the Russian mainland are becoming more and more frequent, it is obvious that the Ukrainian army does not accept this set at all.
(A unit collapsed after a Russian residential building was attacked)
The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation announced on the same day that in response to the attack of the Ukrainian army on the city of Belgorod on May 12, it has been investigated as a terrorist attack. Russia's permanent representative to the OSCE said Ukraine had used weapons aided by NATO, but he did not provide any evidence. The Russian diplomat's statement is completely different from the Russian military's statement that "the wreckage of the intercepted missile hit the residential building" and has not been confirmed by any Russian media.
I think Russia is very funny, Russia's indiscriminate bombing of Ukrainian cities is a righteous action, and Ukraine's counterattack is a crime. I believe that after the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, the international tribunal will have an authoritative statement on this.
As far as the attack and collapse of a residential building in Russia is concerned, whether it is the Russian military that the residential building was hit by the wreckage of the intercepted "Dot-U" missile, or the anti-aircraft missile launched by the Russian side as shown in the video, it is not that the Ukrainian army intentionally attacked civilian targets, but the tragedy caused by the Russian army's interception of the missile. This is fundamentally different from the Russian army's daily attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine, deliberately harming civilians, and even killing prisoners of war, and using a large number of prohibited chemical weapons.
The Russian-Ukrainian war has been fought so far, and both sides are red-eyed, and it is no longer easy to rely on the sharp mouth and sharp teeth, it depends on whose fists are harder. In any case, I am saddened by the civilian casualties caused by the war.
To avoid the recurrence of such a tragedy, the Russian army must immediately withdraw from all Ukrainian territory and create conditions for ceasefire and peace talks. Obviously, this is wishful thinking on the part of peace-loving people.
(Rescuers at the scene)
On May 12, 2024, Putin nominated Andrei Belousov, who previously served as first deputy prime minister, as Russia's defense minister, replacing Shoigu, who gained notoriety in the Russia-Ukraine war.
The 65-year-old Belousov, with a Ph.D. in economics from Moscow University, has been engaged in economic research for a long time after graduation, and has been working as an external part-time adviser to the Russian prime minister since 2000, deputy minister of economic development in 2006, and first deputy prime minister of Russia in January 2020. Since Belousov has no qualifications to serve in the army, it shows that Putin will directly control the army and break Shoigu's circle of power.
At the end of last month, at a high-level meeting of the Ministry of Defense convened by Shoigu, the Russian side suddenly arrested Ivanov, Shoigu's main confidant, Deputy Defense Minister in charge of logistics procurement, on suspicion of corruption. At that time, public opinion was widely speculating that the post of Shoigu Defense Minister was not guaranteed. In the Russian-Ukrainian war, Prigozhin, the boss of the Wagner Group, who was single-handedly supported by Putin, publicly turned against Shoigu. Prigozhin has repeatedly angrily accused Shoiguk of withholding weapons, ammunition and funds for dealing with the Wagner Group, and has rebuked Shoigu for incompetence. At the end of June last year, Prigozhin even launched a mutiny "Qingjun Side", and was "killed" in a "plane crash" shortly after the mutiny failed.
At the same time, Putin appointed former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as secretary of the Russian Security Council. Theoretically, the secretary of the National Security Council is no less in rank and importance than the Minister of Defense, but in Russia, the actual power is lower than that of the Minister of Defense. In the countries that follow the evil path in the West, the main responsibilities of the Ministry of Defense are logistics support and recruit training, and the coordination of the forces of various branches of the military in wartime, and the specific combat planning and command are the responsibility of professional soldiers, and most of the defense ministers are civilian officials, and it is normal for them to have no service experience.
Shoigu was appreciated by Putin in 1990 and entered the core of power in the Kremlin; He has been Minister of Defence since 2012. Shoigu has always been obedient to Putin, and at the same time used his power to promote a large number of cronies. Because the Russian-Ukrainian war is far less progressing than expected, the top generals of the Russian military blame each other, and they have been changing generals for the past two years, and now it is Shoigu's turn to become the latest scapegoat.
The latest appointment of the Kremlin shows that Putin wants to fully mobilize all social resources to win the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, this appointment may aggravate the confusion in the command structure of the Russian military, especially in the current situation in which the top level of the Russian military is acting in defiance of the good news and not reporting the bad news, and the bureaucracy is extremely serious, and it will magnify the evil consequences brought about by the blind command of the top level of the Russian army.
(Russia's new Defense Minister Belousov)
According to the official website of the British Ministry of Defense on May 11, the United Kingdom has provided Ukraine with the largest package of military aid in history. In addition to 500 million pounds (about $622 million) in military funding, Britain has also provided a large amount of military equipment. These include 4 million rounds of small arms ammunition; There are more than 1,600 missiles, I understand that the main ones are individual and vehicle-mounted anti-tank missiles, shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, and of course there are also big killers such as the "Storm Shadow" cruise missile, but the number of British stocks is not large; 400 military vehicles, including 160 armored personnel carriers.
On April 23 this year, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced at a joint press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Warsaw, Poland, that the UK's largest ever military aid to Ukraine was the same. The latest news from the British Ministry of Defense means that the UK has fulfilled this promise. This delivery is very fast.
From the night of May 11 to the early morning of May 12, the special forces under the Ukrainian military intelligence carried out a series of successful attacks on the oil depot in Kaluga Oblast, the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant in Lipetsk Oblast, and the Lukoil Refinery in Volgograd Oblast, using drones produced by Ukraine itself. Earlier, the Ukrainian army attacked the Volgograd Luk Petroleum Refinery on the night of May 10-early morning of May 11, the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant on February 3, the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant on the night of April 23-24, and the Kaluganft Produk oil depot on April 28.
In the past 24 hours, there have been 146 clashes between the two sides on various lines of contact. The Ukrainian Air Force dispatched 12 sorties of warplanes and helicopters to support the ground battle, and attacked the concentration of Russian troops and equipment.
On the 810th day of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Ukrainian General Staff announced that the battle losses of the Russian army (including Russian local, enterprise, and separatist groups) in the past 24 hours were as follows: 1,740 Russian troops were annihilated (killed and seriously wounded), and a total of 484,000 Russian troops were annihilated; Destroyed 31 tanks, 42 armored vehicles, 4 rocket launch systems, 59 fuel tankers and logistics heavy-duty vehicles, 6 sets of special equipment (mainly electronic warfare equipment), 15 artillery pieces, intercepted 26 large suicide drones, 3 missiles.
It was noted that the Ukrainian army killed 1,740 enemies in a single day, a record high, and the previous record was 1,380 since this statistic.
(Russian army battle losses counted by the Ukrainian side on May 13)
Based on various information, I roughly estimated that the losses of Ukrainian officers and soldiers were about 98,000, of which the number of dead and seriously injured was also 1:1, and more than 20,000 Ukrainian civilians were killed. The warriors of Ukraine who died defending their homeland will return to heaven with glory and be with God.
Let us continue to pray persistently: May God give peace and stop wars; Let the wicked be rewarded, and the good be sheltered.