Biden struck suddenly.
On May 13, local time, the White House announced that U.S. President Joe Biden officially signed a bipartisan bill banning the import of unirradiated low-enriched uranium produced in Russia. This is the main fuel used in nuclear power plants, and the import ban will come into effect after 90 days. Affected by this, after the U.S. stock market on the 13th local time, a number of nuclear energy concept stocks rose collectively.
It is noteworthy that on the eve of Biden's signing of the bill, the United States imported a large amount of uranium from Russia. According to data compiled by the Russian Satellite News Agency, in November 2023, Russia became the largest uranium exporter to the United States for the first time; From January to November 2023, Russia sold a total of $1.017 billion worth of uranium fuel to the United States, the highest value since 2010.
The market expects that the import ban signed by Biden may further stimulate the price of related products to continue to rise. As of now, the international uranium price has approached a 16-year high, according to the latest data from the Global Economic Indicators Network, on May 14, the international uranium price has risen above $92 / pound, a cumulative increase of 88.7% compared with the beginning of 2023.
Biden signed
On May 13, local time, the White House announced that U.S. President Joe Biden officially signed the "Ban on Russian Uranium Imports Act", prohibiting the import of unirradiated low-enriched uranium produced by the Russian Federation or Russian entities.
The ban on fuel imports for nuclear power plants will come into effect after 90 days. The bill also provides about US$2.7 billion (about 19.5 billion yuan) in funding to build the U.S. uranium fuel industry.
According to the official website of the White House, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in his latest statement: "Today, President Biden signed a series of historic actions that will strengthen our nation's energy and economic security by reducing and ultimately eliminating our dependence on Russian civilian nuclear energy." ”
Sullivan said the bill "achieves the multilateral goals we have set with our allies and partners," including a commitment in December to jointly invest $4.2 billion with Canada, France, Japan and the United Kingdom to expand uranium enrichment and conversion capabilities.
It is worth mentioning that the bill also sets up some temporary exemptions that allow the US Department of Energy to issue exemptions in the event of supply problems, which will provide exemptions for utilities that may be forced to shut down nuclear reactors until 2028.
Analysts pointed out that the exemption of the bill is equivalent to "leaving leeway" for the United States to import Russian uranium, which is in line with the consistent practice of the United States.
Jonathan Hintz, president of UxC, a nuclear industry market research and analysis firm, said that if the ban signed by Biden does not have an exemption, the spot price of enriched uranium will rise sharply by 20%.
受拜登签署法案影响,当地时间5月13日美股盘后,核能概念股集体上涨,其中Ur-Energy涨超1%,Nexgen Energy涨1%,Constellation Energy涨0.66%,Energy Fuels涨0.5%,Baselode Energy当日大涨超8%。
It is worth mentioning that the share price of Constellation Energy, the owner of the largest nuclear power plant in the United States, which has the most competitive nuclear power generation capacity, has risen by more than 83% this year.
The U.S. buys on a buying spree
Russia is the world's largest supplier of enriched uranium, with about 24% of the enriched uranium used in U.S. nuclear power plants coming from the country. Russia supplies low-enriched uranium to more than 90 commercial nuclear reactors in the United States, making it the number one external supplier of low-enriched uranium to the United States, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.
It is worth noting that on the eve of Biden's signing of the bill, the United States is aggressively importing Russian uranium.
In November 2023, Russia became the largest exporter of uranium to the United States for the first time, according to data compiled by the Russian news agency Sputnik, after hovering in second to fourth place.
From January to November 2023, Russia sold a total of $1.017 billion worth of uranium fuel to the United States, the highest value since 2010. Throughout 2022, Russia sold $766 million worth of uranium to the United States.
Once the ban on Russian uranium imports is implemented, the cost of uranium imports in the United States may rise significantly.
Rosatom owns nearly 50% of the world's uranium enrichment capacity and has been selling nuclear fuel and uranium enrichment services to nuclear power plants in the United States and European countries. In contrast, only a handful of nuclear fuel enrichment suppliers in Western countries have uranium enrichment capabilities, including Orano and Eurouan Enrichment.
Currently, more than a fifth of the enriched uranium fuel in nuclear reactors in the United States and Europe is supplied by Rosatom.
At the same time, the United States is the world's largest producer of nuclear energy, accounting for about 30% of global nuclear power generation, and the demand for enriched uranium fuel is very high. In 2022, U.S. nuclear reactors generated 772 terawatt-hours (TWh), accounting for 18% of total electricity generation.
Once the bill is officially implemented, the supply chain of nuclear reactors in the United States will face great uncertainty. Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, chairman of the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said: "Expanding domestic production capacity is imperative, and we need to deploy investments in the U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain as soon as possible to boost our uranium conversion and enrichment capabilities and prepare for the development and commercialization of next-generation nuclear energy technologies." ”
According to Reuters, Wyoming is seen as the preferred state for future uranium supplies from U.S. nuclear reactors. At least five U.S. uranium producers have begun resuming uranium production in Wyoming, Texas, Arizona and Utah.
At the same time, the United States is actively moving to seek alternatives to Russian uranium supplies. In January, the United States said it planned to work with allies such as Japan, Britain and France to establish an international supply chain for low-enriched uranium. However, it will take some time for a stable supply to be formed.
Crazy uranium
Some analysts believe that the import ban signed by Biden has once again brought great uncertainty to the global nuclear fuel market, which may help the prices of related products continue to rise.
In the context of the floods in Kazakhstan and the almost shutdown of uranium production in African countries such as Niger due to political turmoil, the uranium fuel gap is getting bigger and bigger, and the imbalance between supply and demand has created more room for further rise in uranium prices.
Uranium is the main fuel for the operation of nuclear power plants, and the spot price of uranium has accelerated since 2021, and will start the "hurricane mode" in 2023.
As of now, the international uranium price has approached a 16-year high, according to the latest data from the Global Economic Indicators Network, on May 14, the international uranium price has risen above $92 / pound, a cumulative increase of 88.7% compared with the beginning of 2023.
At the same time, global uranium demand continues to grow. The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates that the global nuclear energy industry will need more than 100,000 tonnes of uranium per year by 2040, meaning that uranium mining and processing will need to roughly double current levels.
Huatai Securities' research report said that it is optimistic that spot uranium prices will continue to have upward momentum in the context of one or two warmer supply and demand relations, and the uranium price ceiling may be further opened with the recent structural price increase of overseas nuclear power brought by AI data centers.
Editor-in-charge: Yang Yucheng
Proofreading: Zhao Yan