The luckier you are, the more unlucky you are? Is this NBA rookie really so bad that it's worthless to even pick the top pick?

Shangguan News

2024-05-13 16:15Posted on the official account of Shanghai Shangguan News

The Hawks had a 3 percent chance of winning the first pick, the Rockets had a 5.2 percent chance of finishing third, and the Spurs had two picks to pick the fourth and eighth picks in the first round...... On May 13, Beijing time, the 2024 NBA Lotto lottery was held in Chicago, and as soon as the results came out, the media began to name this year's "lucky team". However, at the same time, there are opposing voices, believing that "the luckier you are this year, the more unlucky you may be." ”

Xinhua News Agency Photo CHICAGO (USA) Hawks player Capela (second from right) fights during a game on April 17, 2024.    On the same day, in the 2023-2024 NBA play-off season, the Chicago Bulls defeated the Atlanta Hawks 131-116 at home.    Xinhua News Agency (photo by Joel Reiner)

The Eagles' winning this time is the first time in 49 years since 1971 that they have won the lottery, and at the same time, with a probability of 3%, it also refreshes the record for the lowest probability of winning the lottery under the current lottery rules. After the Eagles won the No. 1 pick, they posted photos on their official social media to celebrate, and posted: "3% is enough. ”

The Rockets, who were drawn to the Rip Pick, also became the team with the highest pick in the West. The Rockets finished 12th in the first round and missed the top four, but with an unprotected first-round pick from the Brooklyn Nets, they ended up with a scout pick — a return for trading Harden that year. As soon as the results came out, the Rockets officially wrote: "We have a scout draw in this year's draft!" What do you guys think? "Originally, it was expected that the Nets would only pick 9th, but now it suddenly jumped 6 places and came to the 3rd pick in the first round. Not only did this result exceed all expectations, but it also put the Rockets in a better position in the future draft market — they could have traded it away for more leverage.

Some people sign good luck, and some people sign bad luck. In this lottery draw, the Detroit Pistons only drew the No. 5 pick, despite being at the bottom of the lottery for two consecutive years.

However, there are many people who have the opposite view of this result, because the quality of this year's rookies has been evaluated by the outside world as the worst since the 2000 class. According to the US media, individual general managers of the league evaluated this draft conference, and their conclusion was: This session is really bad, how bad is it? Whoever draws the champion lottery will be fired, which means that this session is so bad that even the champion lottery is worthless!

After all, the team gave the champion an annual salary of tens of millions of dollars, but if you choose a parallel import, first, it has no transaction value, and secondly, it is rotten in your own hands, which is really difficult to top.

But soon some fans refuted this point of view, "The so-called draft year and small year are simply a prediction without factual basis, in the history of the NBA, there are not a few examples of the so-called draft year overturning, and there is no shortage of examples of the so-called draft year counterattack." ”

Take the so-called draft year as an example, in the past 20 years, there have been two counterattack draft conferences! First of all, the 2009 rookies, before the draft, all walks of life were not optimistic about Curry, Griffin, Harden, DeRozan and other young people, but in fact, the 2009 rookies became the same dazzling generation after the 2003 generation.

Two years later, in the 2011 draft, the rookies who were still not optimistic also achieved a counterattack - Irving, Klay, and Leonard are all core members of the championship team, and Paul George, Kemba Walker, Butler, and Thomas Jr. are all All-Star level players.

So, will these teams that have received good signings this year get their wish? Maybe we'll have to let the answer "fly" a little longer.

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