On May 13, 2024, a piece of news that shocked the world instantly ignited the changes in Russian politics: Shoigu, the "Iron Guard" who has long held Russia's military power, unexpectedly "stepped down" to give way to a little-known politician Belousov. At the same time, Foreign Minister Lavrov, who is regarded as a "hardcore", was unexpectedly reused and continued to hold this important post. This series of personnel earthquakes has undoubtedly caused an uproar in public opinion, and people can't help but ask: What kind of goal does Putin want to achieve through this personnel adjustment?
A closer look at this series of changes reveals that there is a deeper power struggle and political calculations behind them. This is undoubtedly the epitome of a "war for power", behind which Putin's thoughtful thinking about the future direction of Russia.
Shoigu's "debasement" and ambition are unstoppable
Regarding Shoigu's sudden "dismissal", public opinion generally believes that this is the result of Putin's attempts to limit his power. As a veteran tough guy in Russian politics, Shoigu has been seen for many years as Putin's right-hand man and staunch supporter. But at the same time, he is also considered a politician with independent ideas and political aspirations, which undoubtedly arouses Putin's vigilance.
Against the backdrop of the worsening conflict in Ukraine, Putin seems to fear that Shoigu's power is too centralized, which in turn threatens his own dominance. Therefore, he acted decisively and suppressed Shoigu's actual influence by "degrading".
We have to admit that although Shoigu was "thrown into the cold house" to the post of secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, his political position has not been substantially weakened. On the contrary, the position is seen as an affirmation of Putin's strength and trust.
This begs the question, does Shoigu have other plans? Perhaps he is brewing the next step in the political game, trying to seek more room for development in his new position. After all, as an ambitious politician, why wouldn't he want to move up the ladder and expand his influence?
This "depreciating" personnel adjustment may also mean that Putin imposes more restrictions on Shoigu. After all, the role of the secretary of the Security Council is more of a coordinating nature than direct control of the military. This will undoubtedly weaken Shoigu's actual influence to a certain extent.
We can't help but ask, is this what Putin really intends? Does it mean that he wants to strengthen his control over the army in this way? This question may be worth exploring further.
Belousov's "debut" constrained the military
While the outside world was still speculating about Shoigu's whereabouts, another key figure, Belousov, suddenly "appeared" and took over the post of Minister of Defense. What kind of changes will this previously little-known politician bring to Russia's military affairs?
Some analysts believe that the appearance of Belousov reflects Putin's attempt to strengthen his control over the military. As a "layman" who has worked in government agencies for a long time, Belousov clearly lacks extensive military experience. This will undoubtedly create new uncertainties about Russia's military operations.
Is Putin trying to weaken the military's autonomy and ensure that the military is better subordinated to his will? After all, against the backdrop of the escalating conflict in Ukraine, ensuring that the military follows command is undoubtedly Putin's most pressing political need at the moment.
Some analysts believe that the emergence of Belousov may be Putin's attempt to cultivate a new force that is more loyal to him. He may have hoped that through the appointment of this "layman", he would build an army that was more obedient to political leadership, so as to increase his direct control over the army.
We also cannot ignore the fact that Belousov's appointment will undoubtedly bring great variables to Russia's military affairs. As a "layman" who lacks actual combat experience, it is still unknown whether he can really control this army.
Needless to say, uncertainty within the Russian military will undoubtedly intensify, which will also have a direct impact on Russia's military operations in the conflict in Ukraine. We can't help but ask, will this become a fatal weakness for Russia?
Lavrov's "conservatism" and diplomatic dilemma
In contrast, Lavrov's ability to remain Russia's foreign minister does not seem to have caused much controversy. This undoubtedly reflects Putin's full affirmation of his capabilities.
But the question is, in the context of the escalating conflict in Ukraine, can Lavrov's sophisticated diplomatic skills really resolve the growing contradictions between Russia and the West? I'm afraid this is still an unknown.
Some analysts believe that Lavrov's re-election may mean that Putin hopes to maintain relative stability in the diplomatic field. After all, in such a grim international environment, frequent diplomatic personnel changes will undoubtedly increase Russia's uncertainty.
Nor can we ignore the fact that Lavrov, as a veteran diplomat, may not be able to adapt to the current rapidly changing international situation. By contrast, perhaps Putin needs some more enterprising and innovative diplomatic talent to push Russia to a breakthrough in the global game. Is Lavrov's re-election a manifestation of diplomatic stability, or is it a microcosm of Russia's desperate need for a breakthrough? This issue may be worth continuing to pay attention to.
The underlying logic behind the power struggle
It is not difficult for us to find that behind the high-level personnel adjustment in Russia, there is undoubtedly a deeper power game and political considerations. On the one hand, Putin is trying to strengthen his direct control over the military and diplomacy by adjusting the number of people in key positions. He may have feared that the concentration of power by political heavyweights such as Shoigu could threaten his own dominance. Therefore, he acted decisively to limit Shoigu's actual influence by "degrading".
Putin is also trying to cultivate a new force that is more loyal to himself. Belousov's ascension as defense minister as a "layman" could mean that Putin wants to build an army that is more subservient to political leadership. This will undoubtedly have far-reaching implications for Russia's future military affairs.
On the other hand, Putin's diplomatic considerations are also quite complex. Lavrov's re-election reflects Russia's cautious attitude in diplomacy to a certain extent. But at the same time, it also means that Russia's breakthrough in the global game still has a long way to go.
Behind this high-level personnel change in Russia, there is no doubt that Putin's deep consideration of the power structure is hidden. He has sought to assert his dominance and ensure that Russia's military and diplomatic interests are safeguarded by reshuffling key positions. But it will undoubtedly also bring new uncertainty about the future direction of Russia's politics.
We are already standing ahead of a major watershed in Russian politics. Where exactly will Russia go in Putin's chess game? This question may require further observation and reflection.