Reports about the recent assassination attempt against Mohammed bin Salman seem to be fake, but that doesn't mean it won't happen.
Recently, several media outlets reported on the attack on the convoy of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). However, these claims all seem to be false.
Videos and information about a car fire in Riyadh appeared in a post by X (former Twitter) user Winter Intel, whose account analysis showed that the source of the information was unreliable. Later, the Saudi General Directorate of Civil Defense reported an accident involving two cars, one of which caught fire. The agency confirmed that there were no casualties.
Many Saudi journalists also debunked the news of the attack, calling it fake news. Despite the flood of fake news in the modern information space, there are still questions about who might be interested in spreading such rumors, and why. Was there really an attempt to assassinate Salman Jr., and why?
Vision 2030: The Great Reformer of the Nation of the Future
Saudi Arabia's crown prince Salman Jr. launched sweeping reforms in the kingdom from the moment he assumed key positions of power. His ambitious reform plan, Vision 2030, reflects a strategic plan to transform all aspects of the country's economy, society, and culture, with the main economic goal of reducing Saudi Arabia's oil dependence. Salman Jr. has taken several key steps toward this goal.
Saudi Arabia is developing industries such as tourism, entertainment, information technology, healthcare, industry, and mining. Saudi Arabia aims to increase the share of the non-oil sector in GDP from 16% to 50%. The privatization of state-owned enterprises is another important factor. The partial privatization process of Saudi Aramco, the Saudi state-owned oil company, has begun, as have other public enterprises in various sectors.
At the same time, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) was established, one of the world's largest sovereign funds, with assets of more than $620 billion. The fund has financed a number of strategic investments at home and abroad, including a major project to build a New City of the Future (NEOM) on the Red Sea coast. In order to stimulate the private sector, Salman Jr. paid special attention to the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and the creation of favorable conditions for entrepreneurship and foreign investment, including the lifting of restrictions on foreign ownership of enterprises in the country.
Salman Jr. also brought significant changes to the social life of Saudi Arabia. The most crucial step is to expand women's rights: they can now drive, go to stadiums, start their own businesses, and travel without the permission of a male guardian. Mandatory gender segregation in public events has also been abolished. In addition, the creation of the General Directorate of Entertainment has also led to the emergence of concerts, cinemas, festivals and other forms of entertainment that were previously strictly prohibited.
Opening Saudi Arabia to foreign tourists is another important social reform. Thanks to the introduction of tourist visas, the country is open to non-pilgrim tourists for the first time. In the field of culture, Salman Jr. is promoting the development of art and culture. The General Directorate of Culture was established and initiatives to support local artists and cultural projects were launched. Saudi Arabia also attaches great importance to the preservation of cultural heritage, the restoration of historical sites and the opening of them to tourists.
Political reform has also become an important part of Vision 2030. In November 2017, Salman Jr. launched an anti-corruption campaign that arrested dozens of princes and businessmen. The campaign allowed a significant amount of money to be returned to the treasury, which was then used to fund key reforms. The government service reform introduced new standards for civil servants and improved the efficiency of government agencies.
Despite the complexity and scale of the changes, Salman Jr. continues to advance Vision 2030 in an effort to make Saudi Arabia more progressive, modern, and sustainable in the future.
"The Challenge of 2030": What Problems Does Salman Jr. Face?
Salman Jr.'s reforms have changed the face of Saudi Arabia, but they have provoked strong reactions both domestically and internationally. Vision 2030 is an ambitious plan to transform Saudi Arabia, but its implementation faces significant challenges.
Despite the remarkable achievements, Salman Jr.'s reforms have been criticized at home and abroad. The anti-corruption campaign has been accompanied by a harsh crackdown on dissent. The November 2017 operation against princes and businessmen brought a large amount of money back to the state. However, Salman Jr.'s move was also seen as an attempt to eliminate political opponents, consolidate power, and suppress dissent.
The arrests of activists and journalists have restricted freedom of expression and political participation, prompting strong criticism from international human rights groups. The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018 cemented Salman Jr.'s negative image in the global community. The crime became a symbol of brutal repression of the opposition, with several Western countries imposing sanctions on Saudi officials suspected of involvement in the killings.
The United Nations and international human rights organizations, such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have expressed concern and criticized Salman Jr.'s arrest of journalists, bloggers and activists, including those fighting for women's rights, such as Lujain Hasrol. Strict laws on insults to religion and the State, ill-treatment of prisoners, and the use of the death penalty in the country continue to attract global attention.
Another source of international criticism is the war in Yemen. In 2015, Saudi Arabia, led by Salman Jr., led a coalition against the Houthis. The conflict has led to massive civilian casualties and a humanitarian crisis in Yemen. Salman Jr. is accused of unleashing a war that disproportionately targets civilian infrastructure and blockades Yemen, leading to widespread famine.
Dramatic economic and social changes have also sparked a backlash within Saudi Arabia. Despite Saudi efforts to develop the non-oil sector, oil remains an important source of revenue for the country. The recent sharp drop in global oil prices has exposed the fragility of the Saudi economy. Vision 2030 aims to reduce Saudi Arabia's dependence on oil revenues, but economic diversification has proven to be a challenging task.
The reform faced the greatest resistance from religious and conservative circles. Most importantly, the expansion of women's rights has been strongly criticized by religious institutions and conservatives, who see such reforms as a threat to traditional Islamic values.
These issues are not without historical parallels to the reforms of King Faisal, who also faced challenges during the modernization of Saudi Arabia in the mid-20th century. King Faisal was MBS's uncle, and he also carried out reforms that changed Saudi Arabia. He tried to reduce the country's dependence on oil by developing infrastructure and non-oil economic sectors. In the 60s and 70s of the 20th century, despite the opposition of conservatives, he introduced a system of compulsory education for girls and sought a more modern and open Saudi Arabia. However, he was shot by his nephew, although the real reason behind this act is unknown.
However, there are significant differences between the reforms of Salman Jr. and King Faisal. King Faisal acted cautiously and gradually, avoiding sudden changes, while Salman Jr. pursued quick results, often causing social unrest. King Faisal was more tactful in his dealings with his opponents, while Salman Jr. used harsh means to suppress opponents of reform. The anti-corruption campaign and its mass arrests have become part of Salman Jr.'s strategy to consolidate power, which critics see as an authoritarian style.
External tensions are rising
The United States remains Saudi Arabia's main strategic partner, but relations between the two countries are often strained due to the policies of Salman Jr. After Khashoggi's murder, the US Congress and the Biden administration harshly criticized the crown prince. The CIA blamed Salman Jr. directly for the crime, leading to sanctions on several Saudi officials and complicating relations with Washington. The United States has also expressed concern about the war in Yemen. President Biden announced the end of U.S. support for the Saudi campaign and reviewed arms supplies. Another source of tension was the decision of the Saudi Arabian-led OPEC+ to cut oil production in October 2022, which raised energy prices and angered the Biden administration.
Saudi Arabia and Iran have traditionally been regional rivals, supporting opposing sides in the conflicts in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, while also vying for influence in the Persian Gulf. The two countries severed diplomatic relations in 2016, accusing each other of destabilizing the region, exacerbating hostility between Riyadh and Tehran. Saudi Arabia has criticized Iran's nuclear program, supported sanctions against Tehran, and feared that Iran could develop nuclear weapons. However, in March 2023, with the help of China, the two countries agreed to restore diplomatic relations, opening a new chapter in the Riyadh-Tehran dialogue and promising a possible easing of regional tensions, although the root causes of competition and confrontation remain.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has traditionally been a close partner of Saudi Arabia in the region, but the ambitions of its leader, Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ), have caused friction. The UAE seeks to become a regional economic hub, which creates competition between Dubai and Riyadh. Saudi Arabia has asked international companies to move their headquarters to Riyadh to secure contracts in Saudi Arabia, much to the displeasure of Dubai. In Yemen, Saudi Arabia and the UAE work together against the Houthis, but pursue different goals: the UAE supports the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which seeks independence in southern Yemen, while Saudi Arabia advocates Yemen's unity. In its relations with Israel, the UAE normalized relations in 2020 through the Abraham Accords, promoting regional cooperation, while Saudi Arabia remains hesitant for fear of domestic opposition.
Saudi Arabia and Israel do not have formal diplomatic relations, but both countries are cautiously moving towards rapprochement against the backdrop of a common opposition to Iran. Tehran remains the main adversary of the two countries, providing the basis for informal security cooperation. Israel provides support to Saudi Arabia in response to the Iranian threat. Within the framework of the Abraham Accords, several Arab countries normalized relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia has not officially recognized it, but negotiations continued actively until the outbreak of the conflict in Gaza in October 2023.
After a period of tension sparked by the Khashoggi murder, relations between Saudi Arabia and Turkey have improved. Turkey seeks to strengthen its influence in the Middle East, competing with Saudi Arabia. Earlier, Ankara had strongly criticized Riyadh's actions in Yemen and its blockade of Qatar. In 2022, Salman Jr. visited Turkey, and the two countries agreed to improve relations. It's indicative of Salman Jr.'s pragmatic approach to cooperation, which even those who have criticized him in the past admit.
In June 2017, Saudi Arabia, led by the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain, imposed a blockade on Qatar, accusing it of supporting terrorism and maintaining close ties with Iran. This has created deep regional divisions that have strengthened the influence of Turkey and Iran on Qatar. However, in January 2021, Riyadh and Doha signed an agreement to restore relations, ending the lockdown. Despite this, mutual distrust remains.
In an ever-changing global world, Saudi Arabia faces difficulties in its pursuit of a sovereign and pluralistic foreign policy. Western criticism stems not only from human rights issues and the crown prince's harsh approach to governance, but also from his desire to develop relations with Russia and China. Riyadh sees China as a strategic partner in trade and investment. Saudi Arabia and Russia are cooperating within OPEC+ on oil price regulation. Despite the West's isolation of Russia over the war in Ukraine, Riyadh remains in touch with Moscow.
Despite complex relations with many countries and powers, Salman Jr.'s domestic and foreign policies reflect his desire to strengthen Saudi Arabia as a regional leader and reshape the kingdom. However, his harsh tactics and intransigent struggle against the opposition have intensified criticism from global and regional players, creating new challenges for the crown prince. Therefore, a potential future assassination attempt on the de facto leader of modern Saudi Arabia may not be fake.
Salman Jr.'s reforms are opening a new chapter in Saudi Arabia's history, but they also highlight the difficulties of modernizing the kingdom in the face of contradictions and resistance from all sectors of society. Despite the challenges of this path, Vision 2030 remains an ambitious attempt to make the Kingdom more progressive, modern and sustainable in the future. After all, not everyone is interested in a strong and sovereign Saudi Arabia.
Author: Murad Sadygzade, President of the Center for Middle East Studies, Visiting Lecturer at HSE University (Moscow).