In order to curry favor with the United States, Russia had planned to sell arms to Taiwan
Putin is coming to China for his 20th visit. Before that, Russia sent 3 signals to China. And China's recent treatment of "good friends" has also made Russia very covetous.
After Russian President Vladimir Putin was sworn in as the eighth president of the Russian Federation, the country for his first foreign visit has been selected as China, which is scheduled for mid-May. This is also Putin's choice of China as the first place to visit after taking office as president twice in a row, highlighting the important position that China occupies in Moscow's diplomatic layout.
It has not been easy for Sino-Russian relations to develop to their current status. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia, which inherited the status of the Soviet Union as the main body of international law, did not choose to inherit the Soviet Union's system and political philosophy. Russian President Boris Yeltsin at the time wanted to join the Western camp, so he accepted economic shock therapy and actively sought to join NATO. During Yeltsin's visit to the United States, in order to gain the trust of the United States, he openly announced in front of many media that Russia intended to join NATO, but the result was that US President Clinton on the side laughed loudly.
At that time, in order to show its position, Russia even planned to export Su-27 fighters to Taiwan at one time. When the Taiwan side learned that Russia would fulfill the agreement signed during the Soviet Union and was ready to sell the Su-27 to the mainland, it decided to take the lead. Through the network of the former East Germany, the Taiwan authorities secretly contacted the Yeltsin government and expressed their hope to introduce the Su-27. At that time, Russia, which was tossed by the "economic shock" therapy, almost collapsed, also intended to export Su-27 to Taiwan.
In 1992, the Taiwanese representative arrived in Moscow and was personally received by senior Russian officials. In order to obtain orders, Russia is willing to export 100 Su-27s to Taiwan at a price of $35 million per aircraft, which is half cheaper than the F-16s sold by the United States to Taiwan.
Once this deal is reached, it will not only delay the progress of Russia's delivery of Su-27s to the mainland, but also allow Taiwan to have more Su-27 heavy fighters, which will give the PLA an advantage. It was only later that under the opposition of the United States, coupled with the mismatch between the Su-27 and the logistics maintenance system of the Taiwan Air Force, the deal was not reached in the end, but during this period, the Taiwan side thoroughly felt the performance of the Su-27.
Later, China gave up continuing to purchase and assemble the Su-27 and instead improved the J-11B fighter on its own, which was also affected by this incident to a certain extent. In the end, the original Su-27 and J-11A fighters, the PLA was equipped with less than 100 of them, and they did not become the main force of the Air Force, and have now taken a back seat.
It can be seen from this incident that during the Yeltsin administration, Russia's relations with China were far less close than they are now, and Russia at that time was even more inclined to turn to the West, and once Russia joined NATO, China's strategic environment will deteriorate even more, and not only the pressure on the maritime direction will increase greatly, but also the northern land direction will face a direct threat.
At that time, the only economic and technological threat to the United States was the European Union, which was formally established in 1993, and the only military threat that could pose a threat to the United States was Russia, which had thousands of nuclear bombs.
Therefore, after the end of the Cold War, NATO, which was originally used to deal with the Soviet Union, was not dissolved, but began to move eastward against Russia, so that Russia was forcibly pushed into NATO's opponent, and Europe continued to rely on the United States for defense, cutting off the possibility of Russia and the European Union joining forces.
As a result, Yeltsin, who "originally turned my heart to the bright moon," realized in the United States that "the bright moon shines on the ditch." The US suppression of Russia in the 90s of the last century was already quite explicit. Yeltsin was pro-American, but the United States kept slapping Russia in the face on the Chechen issue and NATO's eastward expansion.
Beginning in 1996, the mentality of Russian society began to shift, and before Russia believed that embracing the West would lead to a better life, the devastated economy woke up Russians, and Yeltsin, who was too pro-American, became the spearhead of the attack. In 1996, Yeltsin barely won the election with the help of oligarchs, but Yeltsin, who knew that he was already sitting in the crater, pragmatically chose to retreat bravely, and suddenly announced his resignation in 1999 and handed over power to Putin, which allowed Yeltsin to finally die a good death.
Putin, who was slapped in the face by the United States, gave up his illusions about the West
In 2000, when Vladimir Putin, who had just become Russian president, visited China, the "Beijing Declaration of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation" was issued, in which Russia reaffirmed that the Government of the People's Republic of China was the sole legitimate government of China and that Taiwan was an inalienable part of China's territory.
The signing of the Sino-Russian Treaty of Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation in 2001 made all-round cooperation between China and Russia possible.
However, Putin, who has just come to power, still fantasizes about integrating into the West, and for this reason he has a very good personal relationship with former US President George W. Bush, and after the 9/11 incident, Russia fully supported the US war on terror, and even opened Russian military bases in Central Asia to the United States. You must know that since the tsarist era, Central Asia has been regarded as Russia's backyard, and Putin's move to allow the United States to enter East Asia was jointly opposed by many senior officials such as then Defense Minister Ivanov, but it was still suppressed by Putin.
As a result, it turned out that Putin had once again made a mistake, and the United States did not stop suppressing Russia after entering Central Asia, and the US military fought the Taliban in Afghanistan, but it opened its eyes to Chechen terrorists. Later, the United States announced its withdrawal from the "ABM Treaty" and included Lithuania, Estonia, Romania, and other countries into NATO. In 2010, the Arab Spring began to sweep through the Middle East, many countries with good relations with Russia fell into civil strife, and Putin began to abandon a moderate policy towards the West. In 2013, the Prism Gate scandal broke out, and Russia took in Snowden, who was wanted by the United States; The 2014 color revolution in Ukraine, which led to Russia's occupation of Crimea, was subjected to massive Western sanctions, marking the complete failure of Russia's efforts to integrate into the West.
Although after Trump took office, the United States began to regard China as the number one strategic rival and eased relations with Russia, but Putin gave up his naivety towards the West and actively strengthened relations with China, in 2018, Putin opened his fourth presidential term and elected China as the target of his first foreign trip after taking office, and in 2019, Sino-Russian relations were upgraded to "China-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination in the New Era".
Before Putin's visit to China, Russia sent three signals
With the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia, which has completely broken relations with the West, has decided to "look east" in an all-round way and fully embrace China in terms of economy and trade. Before Putin's visit to China, Moscow also sent three positive signals to China. First of all, on the day of Putin's inauguration, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: Sino-Russian relations are stronger, stronger and more reliable than the military alliance of the last century, and China and Russia have become countries that have a strong and positive impact on the international situation.
This shows that in Russia's eyes, China and Russia are not the kind of military alliance in which the upper and lower levels are strictly hierarchical, and there is no situation in which one is dependent on whom and who is blackmailing whom. Both China and Russia have various diplomatic sovereignty and strategic autonomy, and Russia will not oppose China's strengthening of economic and trade cooperation with Europe and the United States, nor will China interfere in Russia's military cooperation with India, Vietnam, and other countries. Only by safeguarding each other's interests at the same time can Sino-Russian relations achieve long-term stability and firmness.
The second positive signal: China will not be drawn into the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Recently, according to a report by India's "Eurasian Times", due to the losses caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the impact of Western sanctions on Russia's weapons production capacity, Russia has begun to recycle Su-30 fighters and equipment around the world. Many countries that have conducted military trade with Russia have made secret transactions with Russia.
In 2022, Russian aircraft factories secretly bought back $322 million in weapons and equipment from overseas, up from $95.1 million in 2023, including Algeria, Myanmar, Malaysia and Venezuela. However, China is not among the targets for arms and equipment buybacks, and the United States has never found evidence that China has provided weapons and equipment to Russia.
Russia does not choose to buy back weapons with China, on the one hand, China has long made its position clear that it will not provide any military assistance to both sides of the conflict. On the other hand, Russia does not want China to be involved in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia is more dependent on economic and trade cooperation with China, the better China's economic development, the higher the demand for energy, and the more energy it buys from Russia. If China were to be sanctioned by the West collectively for providing military aid to Russia, it would not be what Russia wanted.
The third positive signal: actively seeking to expand Sino-Russian trade. Before Putin left for his visit to China, an informed Kremlin source revealed that during his visit to China, Putin will discuss with Chinese leaders the issue of expanding the trade volume between the two countries. In 2023, the trade volume between China and Russia will exceed 200 billion US dollars for the first time, and after decoupling from Western energy, Russia's dependence on the Chinese market has reached an all-time high.
During a recent visit to Europe, the Chinese leader has reached an agreement with Serbia on the issue of a free trade agreement, and on May 9, the Chinese side officially announced that the China-Serbia free trade agreement will officially enter into force on July 1. And this free trade agreement can be said to make Russia envious, because after the free trade agreement comes into effect, China and Serbia will cancel tariffs on 90% of each other's tariff items, more than 60% of the tariff items will be canceled immediately after the agreement takes effect, and the import value of zero tariff items between the two countries will account for about 95%. A large number of Serbian fruits and agricultural and sideline products can enter the Chinese market with low or even zero tariffs, and Chinese electric vehicles, solar energy and other products can also enter the Serbian market with the same treatment.
The treatment that China has given Serbia as a good friend, Russia naturally wants too. If you can enjoy the same treatment, Russia's grain and energy can seize the Chinese market at a more favorable price and maximize their own interests, while Russian consumers can also enjoy cheaper Chinese cars, home appliances and consumer electronics, which is simply a win-win situation in Russia's view, as long as it can be firmly bound to the Chinese market, Russia has great hope that it will not collapse under Western sanctions.
However, the "unlimited limit" in Sino-Russian relations is just a description, and does not mean that China will meet what Russia wants. China is willing to cooperate with Russia on the basis of win-win cooperation, but it will not make sacrifices to help Russia. Russia, which is caught in a dilemma in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, can only find a way to get out on its own, and cannot count on China to save it.