Original author: Wenser
Original source: The Planet
Since Bitcoin completed its fourth halving on April 20, the price of Bitcoin has once again entered a volatile range, falling to around $56,500 on May 1 and is currently trading at around $62,800.
The halving event and the expected "rune fever" did not bring new growth points to the price trend of Bitcoin, and market views have recently diverged again on the subsequent rise and fall of Bitcoin. In the previously released "BTC Completes the Fourth Halving in History, How Do Various Institutions Predict the Market Outlook?" On the basis of the article, Odaily Planet Daily will once again briefly sort out the views on the trend of Bitcoin for readers' reference.
Positive: Rising is still the main theme
SkyBridge Capital：BTC 市值终将超过黄金
On April 18, SkyBridge Capital CEO Anthony Scaramucci said in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoin's market capitalization will eventually surpass gold's valuation of $16 trillion. Bitcoin is a premium asset that has never been seen in the last 5,000 years of human history. He said Bitcoin still has a long way to go before it catches up with gold's $16 trillion market cap, but he believes that gap will close over time as regulators endorse Bitcoin.
Bitwise: Staunch BTC price bulls
On April 23, three days after the end of the Bitcoin halving, Bitwise Asset Management reiterated its bullish view on Bitcoin, which is expected to outperform over the next 12 months.
According to Bitwise researcher Ryan Rasmussen, "After the halving, miners have historically seen some consolidation across the industry. Some miners are not prepared for the change in the mining economy after the halving. From a price perspective, what we've typically seen is that the year before and the year after the halving is Bitcoin's best year in a three- or four-year cycle, and it's already happening. We definitely had a great year before the halving. We bounced off the lows of 2022 and had a great 2023, we got off to a good start in 2024 and I do think we will continue to test new highs in 2024 and next year after the halving. ”
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, made a bold prediction about the market changes ahead of Bitcoin's fifth halving, which is expected to take place in April 2028, arguing that "during the next halving, Bitcoin's market volatility will decrease, portfolio allocation and ETF flows will increase, and central banks in some countries will be involved, with a Bitcoin price target of at least $250,000." ”
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley predicts that wealth managers will increase their Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings, a prediction that comes after Bitcoin ETFs are expected to gain a bigger boost after the halving.
Jan3 CEO: BTC price is expected to reach $1 million
On April 26, Jan3CEO Samson Mow argued that the recent halving event, coupled with a surge in demand for Bitcoin spot ETFs, could trigger the emergence of an Omega candlestick pattern when a supply shock meets a demand shock, which is expected to push the Bitcoin price to the $1 million milestone.
Luxor released Q1 report: BTC price will recover in five months
On May 2, Luxor, a mining pool and hash market, released its Q1 2024 report, which stated that the price of Bitcoin will recover in five months, at least in the short term, based on data that hashrate forward futures (essentially futures contracts, although they are traded over-the-counter rather than on an exchange) are at a premium. On May 1, the Bitcoin hashrate price fell to an all-time low of $44.43/PH/day.
Data related to the price of Bitcoin hashrate
TD Cowen：BTC 价格或将在 5 月上涨
On May 7, TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza said that the price of Bitcoin may have huge upside potential in May, and that MicroStrategy (MSTR), a company owned by Michael Saylor, is on track to move significantly higher by the end of the year. He said May 15 is the deadline for institutional investment managers to file Form 13-F with the SEC, which would indicate that Bitcoin has received further institutional recognition if more companies purchase the newly approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the first quarter. In addition, the SEC's possible rejection of the Ethereum ETF will also put a lot of capital on Bitcoin, which in turn will generate incremental demand.
Analyst PlanB: BTC price will reach $500,000 in 2028
On May 7, PlanB posted on platform X that the average price of Bitcoin in the 2020-2024 halving cycle is $34,000, slightly lower than the $55,000 predicted by the S2F model in 2019, but still within the normal range, considering that the price of Bitcoin was less than $4,000 at the time of making the prediction, (so the prediction result) is not bad. The modified S2F model using the new data shows similar parameters and results: in 2024-2028, the price of bitcoin will reach $500,000; In 2028-2032, the price of Bitcoin will reach $4 million.
Pantera Capital: BTC price will reach 117,000 in 2025
On May 9, Pantera Capital released its prediction for the price of Bitcoin in its latest Pantera Fund V launch letter, which predicts that the price of Bitcoin will reach $117,000 in August 2025. The letter stated that in a blockchain letter published in November 2022, it updated its analysis of the impact on the price of BTC since the halving in 2013 and finally predicted that BTC would rise to $117,000 in August 2025.
At the same time, it also said that in the previous halving, the average time of the rebound before and after the halving was almost the same. There are similarities between cycles, with the rally before the 2024 halving lasting 515 days, just one day more than the 514 days before the 2020 halving. At the same time, based on this model, the Pantera Bitcoin Fund has almost doubled on average over 11 years.
It is worth mentioning that Pantera Capital is suspected of deleting the news in the future, and the latest content on its official website is an article about the Ton ecosystem published on May 8.
Jack Dorsey: BTC price could reach at least $1 million in 2030
On May 9, Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey said in an interview that the price of Bitcoin could reach at least $1 million by 2030, adding that its value could grow further from then on. He noted that Bitcoin's price isn't actually the most interesting aspect of Bitcoin, but rather the collaborative nature of the ecosystem and the way it incentivizes collective efforts to enhance the network.
QCP Capital：BTC 价格或受政治因素影响
On May 10, QCP Capital released an analysis that the U.S. election will end in November this year, and the market has historically tended to be optimistic about the election, and presidential candidate Trump has been making cryptocurrency-friendly proposals, or become a bullish factor in the cryptocurrency market. In addition, unless the Fed explicitly rules out a rate cut or hints at a rate hike, it looks like the market will continue to digest the impact of rate cuts, and these expectations are likely to maintain a bullish tone for some time.
In addition to this, QCP Capital analysts previously said that the Bitcoin risk reversal has turned for the better, and call options are now more expensive than put options. This indicates the bullish sentiment of investors, as they are willing to pay a higher price for options that benefit from Bitcoin's rise than for options that prevent price falls.
Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company, has made Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset
On May 13, Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company, announced its strategic transformation of financial management. Metaplanet has turned to Bitcoin as its strategic reserve asset in response to Japan's ongoing economic pressures, particularly high levels of government debt, prolonged negative real interest rates, and the consequent weakness of the yen.
Metaplanet's strategy explicitly prioritizes a Bitcoin-first, Bitcoin-only approach, and may use long-term yen liabilities and regular stock issuance as strategic financial options to keep accumulating more Bitcoin rather than keeping the increasingly weak yen. This approach aims to increase the value of each Bitcoin share, consolidating shareholder value in the long run. In April, Metaplanet had purchased about $6.25 million worth of Bitcoin.
Negative view: Falling is the hard rule
Experienced traders: BTC price could fall back to $30,000 or even lower
On April 26, veteran trader Peter Brandt posted that the price of bitcoin may have peaked in the current bull cycle when it hit a new high of $73, 835 and expects it to fall back to around $30, 000 or even 2021 lows. He attributed this expected pullback to a phenomenon known as exponential decay, which he believes will affect the price of Bitcoin, which recently hit new highs, and that such a decline could be "the most favorable thing" in the long term.
Screenshot of the blog article
Standard Chartered Bank: BTC price may fall back to 30,000
On May 1, Standard Chartered Bank said it could fall further to around $50,000 as the price of Bitcoin falls below the $60,000 mark. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of FX and digital asset research at Standard Chartered, said, "Bitcoin fell below $60,000 and has now reopened its path to the $50,000-$52,000 range. The drivers appear to be a combination of cryptocurrency-specific and broader macro factors. ”
He also said that the concerns about cryptocurrencies include five consecutive days of outflows from the US Bitcoin spot ETF and the market's poor reaction to the launch of the Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in Hong Kong, especially noting that as the US Bitcoin spot ETF continues to see outflows, the current average ETF purchase price is below $58, 000 and there is a liquidation risk. "More than half of the cash ETF positions are in the red, so the risk that some of these positions could be liquidated must also be considered."
10x Research: Stick to the bearish judgment of BTC price after the halving
10x Research, a cryptocurrency research institution, said in a post on the X platform that it continues to adhere to the bearish judgment of Bitcoin after the halving. In addition, since the halving, stablecoin inflows have grown almost zero, and the leverage of bitcoin futures contracts has also dropped significantly, which are all grounds to support its judgment. Previously, the research institute also said that investors should be aware of a potential "fake dip" situation when Bitcoin undergoes a triangular consolidation, and that Bitcoin's relative strength has fallen back to a low of 40% in this correction, which is similar to Bitcoin's three corrections since the beginning of 2023.
In addition to this, in response to DTCC's announcement that no ETF or other investment vehicle that includes Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies as an underlying investment will give collateral value, 10x Research said that Bitcoin is making lower price highs – a new downtrend seems to be in place, and this is where the DTCC statement could have an impact.
Neutral view: volatility will be the new normal
Arthur Hayes: The BTC price will fluctuate between $6 and $70,000 until August
On 2 May, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes noted in a blog post that the Fed's decision to reduce the pace of balance sheet reduction from $95 billion per month to $60 billion essentially equates to $35 billion of new liquidity per month. Meanwhile, given the current fiscal forecast, the Treasury expects to issue additional short-term Treasury bonds with maturities of 4, 6 and 8 weeks in the coming days to ensure sufficient liquidity to meet the cash needs of the week around the end of May. This move is expected to bring additional USD liquidity to the market.
In addition, after the bankruptcy of Republic First Bank, a small U.S. bank, the FDIC used insurance funds to avoid a run on deposits to ensure the interests of all depositors. This means that the US authorities have essentially added $6.7 trillion in contingent liabilities to the nationwide banking system, which will be financed by the new money printing.
He believes that the above factors will continue to inject USD liquidity into the market and reduce downward pressure on cryptocurrencies, and while the market may not react to this immediately, he expects the price to bottom, fall and start to move slowly higher. In this regard, he predicts that bitcoin may have bottomed out near $58,600 and then return above $60,000 before consolidating in the $6-$70,000 range by August. In addition, he also said that he would take advantage of this rally to unstake USDe and buy high beta altcoins.
Conclusion: Long-term bullish, bullish or unfinished
Based on the above views, we can draw the following conclusions in stages:
- In the long run, stretching the time scale to years, both industry institutions and individuals are still bullish on the price of Bitcoin;
- In the short term, the price of bitcoin will be affected by events such as the possibility of a Fed rate cut, the U.S. election, and the approval of the Ethereum ETF.
- From May to August, the price of bitcoin may slowly bottom out in the midst of shocks, and then wait for more market news and policy factors to enter the next stage of the market.