On May 13, the steel spot market fell slightly, and the main varieties in the futures market were mixed, of which iron ore rose 2.42%. According to foreign media reports, Rio Tinto said on Monday that an iron ore train in the iron ore business in Western Australia derailed, but no one was injured in the accident. A spokesperson told Reuters via email: "Rio Tinto confirmed a railway accident about 80 kilometres from Karratha shortly after midnight on Monday. "Tomorrow's steel prices...
1. Analysis of long and short factors
1. Central Bank: In the first four months of 2024, the cumulative increase in the scale of social financing will be 12.73 trillion yuan
In April 2024, social finance decreased by 198.7 billion yuan, the first negative growth in a single month since 2005; The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.3%, down 0.4 pct from the previous month. At the end of April, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 7.2%, and M1 decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, and the "scissors gap" between M2 and M1 further widened to 8.6 percentage points. April financial data significantly lower than expected, the current economic structure transformation and upgrading, the old and new kinetic energy conversion period, with the acceleration of the fiscal rhythm, corporate financing demand is also expected to improve, good steel price trend.
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2. The Ministry of Finance issued the "Arrangements for the Issuance of General Treasury Bonds and Ultra-long-term Special Treasury Bonds in 2024"
The Ministry of Finance issued the "2024 Arrangements for the Issuance of General Treasury Bonds and Ultra-long-term Special Treasury Bonds", in which the maturities of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are 20 years, 30 years and 50 years, and decided to issue 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on May 17, 20-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on May 24, and 50-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on June 14. At the same time, the market expects that the issuance and use of new special bonds will also be accelerated. With the increase in macro-control policies, market confidence has been boosted and steel prices have been positive.
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3. In April, the domestic sales of excavators slightly exceeded expectations
According to the latest data released by the China Construction Machinery Association, 10,780 excavators were sold in April this year, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and the growth rate expanded month-on-month. 8,040 units were exported, down 13% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed month-on-month. At present, the domestic market of the construction machinery industry is at the bottom of the cycle, and the domestic sales data of domestic excavators have picked up for two consecutive months, which has strengthened the market's expectation of continuous improvement in the industry. With the stabilization and recovery of the project volume and the traction of the equipment renewal policy, it is expected to support the demand for steel and benefit the price trend of steel.
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Second, today's steel market
1. Spot market
Today, the domestic steel market fell slightly, and the trading volume was relatively average.
2. The main force of futures
In terms of futures, as of the close, the main forces of various varieties were mixed.
3. Steel mill price adjustment
According to incomplete statistics, 10 steel mills adjusted the ex-factory price of building materials today, of which 4 were raised and 6 were lowered, with a range of 10-40 yuan/ton. The details are as follows:
Raised:
1. Zhongyang, Shanxi: The price of wire rod was raised by 10 yuan/ton.
2. Guiyang Changle: The price of thread was raised by 10 yuan/ton.
3. Yongfeng: The price of coiled snails was raised by 20 yuan/ton.
4. Shi Heng: The price of coiled snails was raised by 20 yuan/ton.
Cut:
5. Yangtze River: The price of thread and coiled snail was reduced by 40 yuan/ton.
6. Jiyuan, Henan: The price of thread, wire rod and coiled snail was reduced by 20 yuan/ton.
7. Masteel: The price of thread, wire rod and coil snail was reduced by 30 yuan/ton.
8. Lu'an: The price of thread, wire rod and coiled snail was reduced by 30 yuan/ton.
9. Fushun New Iron and Steel: The price of thread, wire rod and coiled snail was reduced by 30 yuan/ton.
10. Zunyi Fuxin: The price of thread, wire rod and coiled snail was reduced by 20 yuan/ton.
All adjustments are inclusive of tax.
3. Raw fuel market
Today's imported ore: the market price of mainstream varieties of imported iron ore is stable and strong. On the supply side, the total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil fell sharply last week, and the arrival of iron ore at the port decreased; On the demand side, the profitability of steel mills has fallen slightly recently, and the upward space of hot metal is limited; At present, the supply and demand of iron ore are loose, and it is expected that the price of iron ore will fluctuate in a narrow range tomorrow.
Today's coke: Coke prices are stable. The peak season of the steel market is nearing the end, the overall performance is still weak, and the profits of steel mills under the rise of raw materials are shrinking, the fifth round of coke is still in the game, the recent coke disk has fallen, the market continues to weaken the fifth round of bullish sentiment on coke, this round of price increases or will be shelved, and it is expected that the coke spot will run steadily tomorrow.
Today's scrap steel: scrap prices are stable, with a range of 10-30. Most of the scrap steel bases arrive in general, mostly in and out of fast; Affected by environmental protection inspections, some scrap bases have stopped production and harvesting, and the amount of scrap resources is relatively tight, supporting scrap prices; On the demand side, the current profits of steel mills are declining, and if steel mills turn into losses in the later stage, it is not ruled out that steel mills will suppress scrap prices, and it is expected that scrap prices will remain stable tomorrow.
Today's billet: Tangshan Qian'anpu billet resources ex-factory tax reported 3460 yuan/ton. The price of the national billet market is partially lowered, the snail shock is strong, the price of downstream finished products has fallen slightly, and the overall transaction is average, and it is expected that the price of billet and billet will remain stable and strong tomorrow.
Fourth, Tao Xiaogang's point of view
In April, the social finance data performed poorly, and the black series disk fell slightly in the morning, but as the iron ore disk rose, the steel futures also bottomed out, and the iron ore closed up more than 2%. Iron ore rebounded strongly, first, the global iron ore shipment fell to a nearly 4-week low last week, and the domestic iron ore arrival volume also decreased; Second, international iron ore giant Rio Tinto said on Monday that an iron ore train from its iron ore business in Western Australia had derailed. From a fundamental point of view, the recent performance of steel demand is relatively general, the supply is gradually expanding, the inventory depletion rate is slowing down, and the current total inventory is much higher than the level of the same period in recent years, which has become the main factor restricting steel prices. However, the increase in macroeconomic control policies, the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will help alleviate market pessimism, and the cost of steel is still running at a high level, and steel prices may continue to fluctuate in the near future. It is expected that steel prices will continue to rise steadily tomorrow, with a range of 10-30.
Information reference: Finance Associated Press, Xiben Information, Lange Steel Network, My Steel, etc.
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