In recent years, with the rapid development of sodium-ion batteries, they have begun to emerge in many subdivisions such as two- and three-wheeled electric vehicles, home energy storage, industrial and commercial energy storage, and new energy vehicles, and have become a favorable supplement to lithium-ion batteries. On May 11 this year, the first large-capacity sodium-ion battery energy storage power station in China, the Vulin sodium-ion battery energy storage power station, was put into operation in Nanning, Guangxi, opening the prelude to the first large-scale application of sodium battery energy storage technology in China. In fact, the concept of sodium batteries has been on the rise in the secondary market.
On the day before the Vueling sodium battery energy storage station was put into operation, the U.S. sodium battery concept stock Zhongbi Energy (CBAT. US) disclosed its 2024Q1 earnings report. From its financial results and specific business performance, investors can have a deeper understanding of the current landing and application of domestic sodium batteries.
Judging from the performance of the secondary market, before the disclosure of the Q1 financial report, the share price of Sino-Belgian Energy has begun to have a starting trend. Since the intraday stock price fell to a low of $0.82 on April 8, its stock price has continued to rebound, and as of May 10, the company's closing price reached $1.14, and the stock price has increased by 39.0% in the past month.
It is difficult to shake the lithium battery vehicle market, and energy storage has become a breakthrough in development
Zhitong Financial APP learned that the net revenue of China-Belgium Energy in Q1 reached 58.8 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 38.7%, but it was still less than market expectations; The net profit attributable to shareholders of the company for the period was US$9.8 million, compared with a net loss of US$1.4 million in the same period last year.
According to the data, the net revenue from battery sales in the current period reached US$44.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 51.5%. From the perspective of specific business revenue, the company's current automotive power battery revenue declined across the board. Among them, the revenue of light electric vehicle power batteries was 1.5 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 23.3%; The revenue of electric vehicle power batteries was US$0.5 million, a year-on-year decrease of 73.6%.
However, as a supplement, the revenue of China-Belgium Energy's current residential energy supply and uninterrupted supply (energy storage) business reached US$42.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 66.0%.
As mentioned above, the Q1 performance of China-Belgium Energy was not as good as the previous market expectations, which was mainly reflected in the decline in growth. Taking 2022 as an example, in 2022, China-Belgium Energy's operating income increased from US$53 million in 2021 to US$249 million, an increase of 372% year-on-year. Among them, the three major business segments of electric vehicles, light electric vehicles and energy storage performed well, with revenue increasing by 1824%, 775% and 151% year-on-year respectively.
From the perspective of objective factors, the company's high performance in 2022 has a lot to do with the soaring overall price of lithium batteries at that time, and as the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate falls in 2023, the price of power batteries will fall, which has affected the company's revenue growth in the field of new energy vehicles. On the other hand, with the influx of players from all walks of life into the lithium battery track, the industry has accelerated its "involution", lithium batteries are entering an overcapacity cycle, and the head effect of the industry has intensified.
According to the data, in 2023, among the 109 listed companies in the lithium battery industry chain classified by Shenyin Wanguo, only 42 will have a positive growth in operating income, accounting for less than 40%; The net profit attributable to the parent company of 22 companies increased positively, accounting for only 20.18%.
In addition, under the influence of lithium price fluctuations, the tide of destocking of the whole industry chain has begun to directly affect the profits of the lithium salt industry and the battery chemicals industry. Among the 43 A-share related listed companies, only 8 companies increased their revenue over the same period last year, and 1 company's net profit attributable to the parent company increased positively.
From the perspective of the overall situation of the industry, the performance of Zhongbi Energy in the lithium battery vehicle business is obviously also negatively affected by the dilution of profits in the industrial chain, but unlike those companies that focus on the lithium battery business, Zhongbi Energy also has a layout in sodium batteries and continues to make efforts in the field of energy storage.
According to Zhitong Financial APP, in June last year, Zhongbi Energy issued an announcement to cooperate with energy storage giant Huabao New Energy to develop sodium batteries. Judging from this year's Q1 financial report, the company's current energy storage business revenue reached 42.8474 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 66%, accounting for 95.56% of the company's total revenue in the current period.
With the support of the sodium battery energy storage business, although the revenue of the power battery business of Zhongbi Energy has declined significantly, it still helps its profitability to achieve stable growth and finally achieve a turnaround. According to the data, the gross profit margin of China-Belgium Energy's battery business in the current period was 41.2%, an increase of 30.3 percentage points from 10.9% in the same period of 2023. Net profit from the battery business was $11.7 million, compared to $0.1 million for the same period in 2023.
How far can a sodium battery line go?
2023 is known as the first year of mass production of sodium batteries, and the progress of sodium-ion batteries has exceeded expectations, especially in the fields of A00 and A0 passenger cars, as well as medium and low-speed two-wheelers and three-wheelers. For example, the first sodium-ion battery test vehicle in China was equipped with a sodium battery loading test; Huana can complete the order of 100 sets of electric two-wheeled vehicle sodium battery packs, and deliver them to Keda New Energy.
Sodium batteries are "favored" for several reasons. From the perspective of resources, sodium and lithium are in the same main group with similar physical and chemical properties, resources are quite abundant, the abundance in the earth's crust is in the 6th place, and more importantly, sodium is distributed all over the world, completely free from the restrictions of resources and geography, in the case of lithium resources dependent on imports and the price is gradually rising, sodium-ion batteries have a very large resource advantage and cost advantage compared with lithium-ion batteries.
According to the comparison, the cost of sodium carbonate is lower than that of lithium-ion battery cathode materials, and the cost of sodium is more than 50% of the cost of lithium-ion battery cathode, and there is no problem of lithium intercalation reaction between sodium and aluminum, and the current collector of the positive and negative electrodes can use aluminum foil with lower cost, and the cost of current collector is more than 60% lower than that of lithium-ion batteries, which has obvious cost advantages.
In terms of performance, according to the current high and low temperature test results published in the market, the high and low temperature performance of sodium-ion batteries is more excellent, and it can release more than 70% of the capacity at a low temperature of -40 °C, a capacity retention rate of more than 90% at a low temperature of -20 °C, and a high temperature of 80 °C can be recycled and discharged. This will improve the mileage achievement rate of new energy vehicles in high and low temperature environments, effectively improve the user experience and help eliminate range anxiety. In addition, in terms of safety, the safety of sodium-ion batteries is higher than that of lithium-ion batteries, because the overcharge and overdischarge reaction of sodium-ion batteries is mild and will not produce dendritic lithium, thus avoiding safety problems such as battery short circuit and thermal runaway.
When applied to energy storage, the power quota of the air conditioning system can be reduced at the energy storage system level, and the online time of the temperature control system can also be reduced, thereby reducing the one-time investment cost and operation cost of the energy storage system.
However, at this stage, sodium batteries also have many technical and industrialization pain points.
Taking the energy storage business currently focused on by Zhongbi Energy as an example, compared with the mature lithium storage industry, although sodium storage has a cost advantage in the battery end, it does not have an advantage in the overall manufacturing cost, and there are still many process technologies and manufacturing equipment that need to be optimized.
Zhitong Financial APP learned that in the first quarter of this year, the domestic lithium storage price has hit a "new low". Judging from the bidding price, Xu Ji Electric recently won the 75MW/300MWh energy storage system equipment procurement project in Xinjiang at a price of 0.564 yuan/Wh. What's more, in a tender of CNNC, 34 out of 71 bidders offered prices of 0.6/Wh and below.
As a new energy storage technology, "sodium electricity" has a higher average price than lithium battery energy storage in terms of overall cost. According to public information, the BOM cost of sodium batteries in the small-scale test stage is about 0.82 yuan/Wh, and the pilot stage is 0.76-0.82 yuan/Wh.
Therefore, from a cost point of view, sodium storage will definitely not be able to roll up lithium storage now, but this does not mean that sodium storage cannot "overtake in corners". From the perspective of battery cost, the components with the largest cost gap between sodium batteries and lithium batteries are cathode materials and current collectors. As mentioned above, the cost of sodium batteries can be much lower than that of lithium batteries. Under the transmission of cost effect, GGII predicts that the price of sodium batteries is expected to be around 0.45 yuan/Wh in 2025; In 2027, it is expected to be 0.3-0.35 yuan/Wh, which is basically the same as lithium iron phosphate.
Since the production process of sodium batteries can refer to lithium batteries, and its production line is basically similar to that of lithium-ion battery production lines, that is to say, once sodium batteries enter a mature development period, it may lead more lithium battery companies facing overcapacity to enter the sodium battery market. However, for the existing first-mover advantage of Sino-Belgian Energy, the rise of the sodium electricity market is undoubtedly a double-edged sword, although it can strengthen its own large-scale advantages in the sodium electricity market, but whether the follow-up company can stabilize its position in the industrial competition is the key to whether it can achieve the final valuation rebound.