Lead
"What's going on out there, why is the yen plummeting?"
"The United States does not use the yen as a street currency, and it plummeted at the opening of 55."
This is a hot topic of discussion among the members of the roadside bank early in the morning when the residents are rushing to work.
In recent days, under the influence of the U.S. monetary policy, the exchange rate of the yen against the U.S. dollar has plummeted, which not only allowed the United States to seize the opportunity in the Japanese market and further smashed Japan's imports, but also quickly threw the "inflation prescription" to the domestic people, the price of imported materials soared, and the cost of living soared again.
As soon as the yen fell against the dollar, the Japanese government launched a "bailout operation", only to find that the resistance was greater than expected, and this diplomatic conflict with China in the East China Sea suddenly diverted the public's attention in the diplomatic scene.
Is Japan really going to ask China for help, or is there something else?
How should the mainland respond?
Is it support or is it happy to see the hunter?
First, the yen plunged.
On July 3, 2022, the U.S. Treasury Secretary announced another round of loose monetary policy, and the interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds fell sharply, hitting a new low, further hitting the dollar exchange rate.
The depreciation of the US dollar means that the exchange rate of the local currency of other countries will also depreciate to a certain extent, and the stock market will naturally be affected.
On the same day, the stock market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange opened high and moved low, and finally the index fell by nearly 400 points at one point, and the turnover fell sharply, and investors sold off one after another.
The exchange rate fell, there is no good place, the price of imported materials is the catalyst, the price of goods imported from the United States increased by 16.7% year-on-year, after the announcement of the US monetary policy at the end of October, the price of imported materials rose by 12.3%, and the price of food such as milk powder, alcohol, and edible oil in Japan is particularly obvious.
The overall price has risen, the people's living expenses have risen sharply all of a sudden, the gap between the rich and the poor has widened, and the pressure on domestic life is huge, and even some middle-class families have begun to make up their minds to reduce consumption and save a lot of money for their children's education and life.
Not only that, but the export of small and medium-sized enterprises has also been affected, due to the soaring prices of imported materials, Japan's export prices have been accelerated and desperately squeezed out of the international market, which alone has caused Japan's total import and export value to drop by 30% in an instant.
Japan's export situation is becoming more and more severe, while the yen exchange rate has fallen even more, the price of Japanese imports has also soared to the highest point, and the Japanese mainland market has begun to show signs of "inflation", which has finally made the Japanese government realize the seriousness of the problem.
Under the strong pressure of the Japanese government, the major Japanese banks began to release "good news", because the US monetary policy violated its own "exchange rate cool-down declaration", Japan decided to carry out a round of intervention, some coordination, but in the case of the joint Bank of Japan failed to effectively change the dollar exchange rate, Japan had to take action again, and even let the foreign ministry participate in it.
The Japanese side has already smashed a large amount of yen into it, but the United States is still full of confidence and has not been hit at all, and has even further increased the pressure on the yen, and the dollar rate is even lower, and the yen is naturally depreciating more and more seriously.
Now that the yen exchange rate has plummeted, the monetary policy of the United States certainly cannot go its own way, and needs to be coordinated globally, so it began to convene a meeting to formulate a global "exchange rate cool-down declaration" and agreed on a series of measures to prevent its currency from continuing to depreciate.
The yen exchange rate naturally began to rise all the way, but this is far from enough, the United States in order to curb inflation, the easing policy turned into a tightening policy, further let the dollar exchange rate fall by 2.3%, the yen exchange rate will not let go of this opportunity, continue to soar, and finally fall into the market, again sharply depreciated.
At the same time, the U.S. dollar exchange rate can rise or fall, and the currencies of different countries will rise and fall to varying degrees, so ordinary investors can speculate on foreign exchange and make money with the rise and fall of the currencies of different countries, so the exchange rate of the yen relative to the U.S. dollar will also become extremely unstable, once accompanied by violent fluctuations, and even black market exchanges.
2. Japan intervened.
Japan had to intervene in the market, limiting the dollar trading day to $200 billion per day, imposing a number of restrictions on trading behavior, and strengthening the regulation of exchanges for investors who were deemed to have been excesses.
Once it is found that there is an illegal transaction, not only will the funds and accounts be frozen, but also the corresponding punishment, punitive heavy fines or imprisonment, and even ordered to suspend business for rectification.
After so many restrictions, the dollar can play with about $200 billion at best, and it is not difficult for the yen to fluctuate up and down by 100 points, and for the market, the volatility is relatively small, and the stability has been greatly enhanced.
The price decline is still difficult to reverse in a short period of time, so the Japanese government held an emergency meeting on July 9 and decided to increase the heavy blow to the rescue again, and began to adjust the total limit of the yen from $200 billion to $35 billion on October 5, and appropriately relaxed some restrictions and regulations.
So far, the United States is completely indifferent to the iron plate of the yen, and if it wants to break the iron wall of the United States, Japan can only rely on manual work, so Japan uses the Bank of Japan as a broker, and takes the initiative to act for the sake of institutions, naturally for the sake of the day's market speculation, to see if it can break the iron wall of the United States.
However, the Bank of Japan and the institutions that can play the game are nothing more than that, so the dollar exchange rate naturally did not move well, and in the end the yen was still limited, is there a good way for Japan?
3. Diplomatic strategy.
At the same time, the United States began to formulate a new "exchange rate cooling-off declaration" with other countries in the world through international cooperation, agreed on measures, and intervened in the US dollar exchange rate to a certain extent at the same time, curbing the depreciation of the US dollar.
At this time, the U.S. dollar exchange rate has decreased by a large margin, and the U.S. has greatly shrunk the import reduction capital appreciation dividend, especially the sharp depreciation of the yen, and the U.S. frenzied robbery in Japan has almost suffocated the Japanese market, and the United States no longer imports eight glasses of water, and the Japanese market has been greatly impacted by this and has quickly entered a state of recession.
The Japanese government's bailout and change the yen exchange rate are too colorful, and Japan's own diplomacy is also actively underway, wanting to spread the honey of dissatisfaction to others, and always looking for a topic to divert public attention.
On October 23, a Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force frigate and an aircraft flew into the East China Sea to engage in a confrontation with a Chinese Maritime Guard, during which a member of the Japanese Self-Defense Force aimed at the Chinese police ship three times before finally throwing a grenade in the direction of the Chinese ship's side.
At this time, the Japanese diplomatic department has shifted a lot of attention to this confrontation, and even in the statement issued by the diplomatic department on the matter, it is an aggressive attitude.
China was obviously unwilling to provoke a war at this time, and in order to ease the atmosphere, the Chinese side decided to be lenient, and after the results of the investigation were announced, due to the negligence of the Japanese team members, they finally issued only a verbal warning.
Japan's huge momentum leads the rhythm in the diplomatic scene, and only wants to divert the public's attention, but such a blind diplomatic strategy is actually very irresponsible for the country, once it provokes an incident, there is tension or even war with other countries, and Japan is not capable of fighting, so diplomacy needs to be done by one person for a lifetime, and it is necessary to balance the two lines at home and abroad.
epilogue
Japan's economy came to a standstill, the U.S. consumer market shrank, and Japan's physical exports shrank, and Japan was caught off guard and dragged into the abyss of the economy.
Japan needs to find new economic outlets and improve its international competitiveness through its own new methods.
Japan has always been good at technological innovation, so it may be a feasible way to guide the development of other industries from the perspective of technological innovation.