The situation in the South China Sea is treacherous, but the Philippines is going further and further down the road to death, not only continuing to provoke China on the Ren'ai Jiao issue, but also planning to stir up trouble in the long-dormant Scarborough Shoal area.
【China-Philippines Dispute】
The Philippine media "Daily Inquirer" once revealed a news: The Philippine military is currently planning to recruit 100 civilian ships, intending to let these civilian ships forcibly break into the waters of Scarborough Shoal controlled by China on May 15, in an attempt to seize the actual control of Scarborough Shoal in this way.
The Philippines is getting crazier
The news came out of the Philippines just as the U.S.-Philippines side-by-shoulder military exercise was about to end, and it was obvious that the strength shown by the United States in the military exercise made the Philippines feel that it was good again, and they believed that once a conflict broke out between China and the Philippines, the United States would definitely support its allies.
【Confrontation between China and the Philippines】
In fact, the Philippines' move is an upgraded version of the so-called free navigation policy in the South China Sea pursued by the United States.
The Philippine military has determined that China will not take action against civilian ships, and that taking the lead with civilian ships will put China in a bad position in international public opinion.
In fact, this is not the first time that the Philippines has used its civilian ship and civilian status to cover its own encroachment on its interests in the South China Sea.
Nearly every time the Philippines has sent civilian ships to cover Philippine supply ships to resupply the Sierra Madre on Second Thomas Shoal, Philippine officials believe that increasing the involvement of civilian vessels and Filipino civilians in these operations would put China in a dilemma.
【China-Philippines Dispute】
For this reason, the Philippines has even organized some anti-China non-governmental alliances and constantly participated in disputes with China.
One of the largest groups, known as Atin lto, which means ours in the Filipino language, has a strong symbolic meaning, and in late 2023, the group carried out a forced incursion into Second Thomas Shoal, with a total of more than 40 civilian vessels dispatched.
As soon as the Philippine civilian boat arrived near the waters of Ren'ai Jiao, it was discovered that the Chinese coast guard ships and fishing boats had been waiting for a long time, and finally the Philippine authorities took the initiative to stop the operation to avoid casualties.
[China Coast Guard and fishing vessels in the same frame]
However, the failure of one operation did not make the Atin lto organization give up the idea of provocation against China, and after studying the lessons of the failure, they believe that the failure of this operation is mainly due to the wrong target.
The reef is only 30 kilometres from Mischief Reef, where Chinese coast guard ships and naval warships are deployed, but it takes more than 200 kilometres to get to the reef from the Philippines. In other words, China has a clear geographical advantage on the issue of Ren'ai Jiao.
It was this consideration that led the group to turn its attention to Scarborough Shoal, which is also more than 200 kilometers from Luzon in the Philippines but more than 600 kilometers from any of the Chinese-controlled reef bases.
【South China Sea Base】
Moreover, there are now US troops stationed on Luzon Island, and the Philippine side believes that it has a considerable geographical advantage, and Chinese ships cannot patrol the waters off Scarborough Shoal on a permanent basis.
With the acquiescence of Philippine officials, the Atin lto group decided to carry out a forcible invasion of Scarborough Shoal in mid-2024.
Incredibly, the group held a press conference to publicly state that the action did not seek provocation or conflict.
This is strange, why is it that Philippine civilian ships forcibly intrude into the waters where Chinese islands are located, and they are not aimed at China?
How China cracked
As for the Philippines' use of civilian ships to open the way for provocations against China, in fact, the Chinese side has already made a plan, and it seems that China is ready for both.
The first is to take the initiative to attack, completely abandon the move of meeting with the Philippines, and directly use tough means to make an example of the Philippines, so as to completely destroy the Philippines' ability to provoke China.
At present, the Chinese Navy has sent a number of ocean-going fleets through the South China Sea to directly put pressure on the Philippines, and has also deployed a Type 055 destroyer to sit on Mischief Reef, which is obviously to deter the Philippines.
【055 Destroyer】
In addition, the Chinese Air Force also sent H-6K bombers to land on Woody Island, and its combat radius can completely cover the entire territory of the Philippines, and these actions are the final warning to the Philippines.
In fact, what the Philippine government fears most is China's direct action.
Because the gap between the military strength of the two countries is too great, although there is a US-Philippine mutual defense treaty on the table, the United States itself has no military superiority over China in the Asia-Pacific region, and it is difficult to say whether it will help the Philippines get ahead.
【U.S.-Philippines Military Exercise】
Interestingly, the Chinese side has released the recording and transcript of the phone call in which China and the Philippines reached a new model on the so-called Ren'ai Jiao issue in January.
You must know that the Philippines has just announced that China and the Philippines have never reached any agreement on Ren'ai Jiao, and the evidence released by China directly confirms the Philippine treacherous accusation.
Some international experts said that China's release of evidence that the Philippines tore up the agreement between the two countries at this time is likely to be a foreshadowing of Philippine military action.
Even the world's great powers have to be famous, and now the Philippines has given China a reason to resolve the dispute through direct action.
Regardless of whether the Philippines is willing to give in or not, China may directly use its naval and air forces to completely defeat the Philippines, and use this as a warning to any South China Sea country that is willing to cooperate with the United States.
If not to take the initiative, China is also preparing to meet the Philippine civilian fleet at Scarborough Shoal, where satellite photos show that a large number of Chinese coast guard vessels and distant-water fishing vessels have gathered in the waters off Scarborough Shoal.
The Philippines has not thought about a problem, China is the world's largest fishing country, and the number of fishing boats far exceeds that of the Philippines. Since the Philippines wants to use civilian ships to make China throw rats, then China simply responds with civilian ships.
Moreover, the Chinese coast guard ships are equipped with high-pressure water cannons, and helping the Filipinos to wash the ships cannot be regarded as an attack, and it can only be said that the mainland coast guard ships "did bad things with good intentions".
[China Coast Guard high-pressure water cannon is in place]
In the final analysis, the public opinion position still has to speak with the strength of the country, and the ancients said that after entering the customs, there will be great Confucians to defend the scriptures for me, which is actually what it means.
Sources:
[1] A number of senior Philippine officials denied that the Marcos administration had negotiated with the Chinese side to reach an agreement on the control of Ren'ai Jiao, and the Chinese embassy responded. Beijing News.2024-05-04 【Citation date:2024-05-04】
[2] The Chinese Embassy in the Philippines lodged solemn representations with the Philippine Ministry of Foreign Affairs over the illegal intrusion of Philippine ships into Ren'ai Jiao to carry out transportation and replenishment. Tencent News 【Quote date:2024-03-25】