Since February, the price trend of the international urea market has been relatively weak as a whole, showing a rapid weakening of the high level. Recently, the price is still in a downward trend, and there is no clear signal to stop falling as a whole.
According to Longzhong Information Report: China's FOB price of bulk small granular urea is 312~316 US dollars (ton price, the same below), an increase of 1~3 US dollars; The FOB price of small grain ports in the Black Sea is 245~280 US dollars, an increase of 5~10 US dollars; The FOB price of small grain ports in the Baltic Sea is 240~275 US dollars, an increase of 5~10 US dollars; The FOB price of small grain ports in the Middle East is 272~290 US dollars, down 5~13 US dollars; The CIF price of small particles in Brazil is 295~305 US dollars, down 5 US dollars; The CIF price in India is 339~348 US dollars, the same as last week.
The FOB price of large granular urea port in Iran is 255~258 US dollars, an increase of 3~5 US dollars; The FOB price of Egypt (Europe) large grain port is 290~295 US dollars, and the high-end is reduced by 7 US dollars; The CIF price of large particles in Brazil is 300~310 US dollars, which is reduced by 5~10 yuan; The CIF price of large grain ports in Southeast Asia is 330~335 US dollars, the same as last week; The FOB price of China's large-grain ports is 315~325 US dollars, which is the same as last week.
Iranian producers set their offer at $255 FOB, in line with the sale price later last week. It is reported that the four producers may have reached the same level of deals, which will be loaded from the end of April to May, with a total of more than 250,000 tons.
The European market continues to weaken and CIF prices have been moving lower. The activity of nora barge has basically stopped, and the FOB price has basically stabilized at 285~316 US dollars this week.
As of May 7, the Chicago Board of Trade showed that the July contract for the Nora region closed at $273 and the September contract closed at $281. Affected by the wet weather, the trading activity in the Nora area has decreased recently. In May, the barge price was 284~286 US dollars / short ton. From the perspective of the price relationship between urea and corn, the corn futures price in December 2025 is 4.9725 US dollars / bushel, and the urea to corn ratio is 56.51, compared with 58.22 in the same period last year. Therefore, whether the price of corn in December 2025 can be stable around $5 will have a big impact on urea demand.
Domestic urea prices have risen sharply recently, with a monthly increase of more than 10%, and the price once rose by more than 2,200 yuan, which further compressed the originally small arbitrage space for internal and external disks. At present, the loss of small granular urea exported to the Baltic Sea is about 100 yuan, and there is still a small profit of large granular urea.
On the whole, urea prices in the international market are weak, but it is difficult to have more incremental factors to drive urea downward, due to the high price of domestic urea, there is no condition to drive international prices further downward in the short term. North African suppliers were under the most pressure in May, with slightly less pressure on suppliers in the Baltics and Nigeria. Supplies to the east of Suez are tighter as Indonesia's large granular urea has been sold out in May, but cargoes from China will return in June and prices will continue to slide. Although the decline in international urea prices has slowed down in the short term, it will not change the long-term weakness, and the price may fall further in the context of high supply and demand is expected to weaken further.
In the future, we need to focus on several issues: first, what position can the international price fall to attract buyers from the southern hemisphere to enter the market to receive goods; second, whether the price will move closer to the FOB price of $220 in Egypt; The third is India's next round of bidding.
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Please indicate in the following format for reprinting: Source: Agricultural Resources Herald Author: Xiao Haiming Editor: Ding Jiahui Review: Zhai Yiting Producer: Zheng Hongyan