Special analyst Xu Yan
In early May, the overall downturn of the domestic rice market did not change, multiple subjects were bearish about the market outlook, rice processing enterprises were slow to ship, dealers were not willing to hoard goods, and the provinces were intensively stockpiled out of old rice, and the loose supply and demand led to a low auction transaction rate. The activity of the rice market during the May Day holiday is not as expected, the market players are cautious, and the market is not confident enough after the holiday, and it is expected that the rice market will continue to maintain a stable and weak trend in the later period.
International rice prices stopped falling and rebounded
Overseas procurement is increasing
After May Day, international rice prices gradually stopped falling and rebounded, with rice prices rising in Thailand and Vietnam, and rice prices in Pakistan continuing to decline slightly. According to monitoring, as of May 9, the FOB price of 5% crushed rice in Thailand was 614 US dollars / ton, an increase of 15 US dollars / ton from last week and a year-on-year increase of 105 US dollars / ton; Thailand's parboiled rice FOB price was 616 US dollars / ton, up 14 US dollars / ton from last week and 95 US dollars / ton year-on-year; Thai fragrant rice FOB price is 873 US dollars / ton, up 15 US dollars / ton from last week and 3 US dollars / ton year-on-year. The weakening of the Thai baht and the increase in demand for overseas purchases have boosted the price of rice in Thailand. Vietnam's 5% crushing rate rice FOB price is 587 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars/ton from last week, up 97 US dollars/ton year-on-year; Vietnamese fragrant rice FOB price was 668 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton from last week and 93 US dollars / ton year-on-year. Pakistan's 5% crushing rate rice FOB price is 577 US dollars / ton, down 3 US dollars / ton from last week and up 32 US dollars / ton year-on-year; Pakistan's 2% crushing rate basmati rice FOB price is 940 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton from last week and 333 US dollars / ton year-on-year.
There has been a significant increase in the rotation of ground reserves
Paddy supply continues to be loose
In April, the local reserve rice in the southern provinces began to enter the intensive rotation period, and the number of rotations and the frequency of delivery increased significantly compared with March, becoming the main force of rice market supply at this stage. According to statistics, in April, the eight provinces of Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang sold a total of 699,000 tons of paddy at auction, an increase of 215,000 tons or 44.4% over March. Since March, the gradual increase in the rotation of rice in the ground storage has further intensified the loose supply and demand situation in the paddy spot market.
In early May, the rotation of local reserve paddy in the southern provinces continued to advance, and the amount of rice rotated was increased, and the amount of rotation purchase was further reduced. From May 6th to 8th, Guangdong Province carried out two-way procurement and sales, bidding for the purchase of 5,000 tons of mid-to-late indica rice in 2023, and the actual transaction price was 3,200 yuan/ton, a discount of about 130 yuan/ton; A total of 58,000 tons of early indica rice from 2021 to 2022 were sold, and the actual transaction price was 2400~3172 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0~172 yuan/ton. Hunan Province sold 18,000 tons of indica rice from 2020 to 2023, and the actual transaction price was 2400~2820 yuan/ton, all of which were traded at the reserve price, and there were unsold auctions in many times. Hubei Province sold 3,000 tons of mid-to-late indica rice from 2021 to 2023, and the actual transaction price was 2,780 yuan/ton, and all the floor prices were sold. Jiangxi Province sold 14,000 tons of mid-to-late indica rice in 2021, and the actual transaction price was 2,641 yuan/ton, which was basically traded at the reserve price. Jiangsu Province will sell 5,000 tons of japonica rice from 2022 to 2023, and the actual transaction price is 2805~2811 yuan/ton, with a premium of 45~110 yuan/ton. Fujian Province sold 2,000 tons of japonica rice in 2022, and the actual transaction price was 2,803 yuan/ton, a premium of 3 yuan/ton.
Indica spot supply is loose
Indica rice prices continue to weaken
In early May, the indica rice market in the south was intensively rotated out, and the loose supply in the spot market intensified, but the weak downstream rice consumption did not change, and the indica rice market continued to weaken under the loose supply and demand pattern. As of May 9, the purchase price of "Fengliangyou" rice in Yichun, Jiangxi Province was 2,770 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of rice was 3,930 yuan/ton. The purchase price of "Feng Liangyou" rice in Yichang, Hubei Province is 2760~2800 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of rice is 3960~4000 yuan/ton. The purchase price of ordinary hybrid rice in Changde, Hunan Province is 2720 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of rice is 3860 yuan/ton.
The price of japonica rice was stable and weakened
The activity of spot purchase and sale is low
In early May, the production of japonica rice in Northeast China continued to advance, and the focus of market players gradually shifted to the production of new rice. The surplus rice grain of grassroots farmers has dropped to about 10%, and although some traders have inventory, they are generally willing to sell grain at low prices, and it is expected that rice prices will continue to weaken steadily in the later period.
As of May 9, the purchase price of ordinary round grain japonica rice in Jiamusi, Heilongjiang Province was 2660~2720 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of rice was 3640~3700 yuan/ton. The purchase price of Qiqihar "Suijing 18" rice is 3,460 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of rice is 4,900 yuan/ton. The purchase price of super rice in Changchun, Jilin Province is 3100 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of super rice is 4360~4400 yuan/ton, the market demand is weak and the price is stable. The purchase price of "Liaoxing" rice in Panjin, Liaoning Province is 3100~3120 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of rice is 4360~4400 yuan/ton. The purchase price of ordinary japonica rice in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province is 2840~2860 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of rice is 3740~3760 yuan/ton.
The purchase price of rice bran market: 2280 yuan/ton in Jiamusi, 2280 yuan/ton in Jiamusi, 2320 yuan/ton in Xuzhou, Jiangsu, 2400 yuan/ton in Yingkou, Liaoning, and 2520 yuan/ton in Yueyang, Hunan, all of which were the same as last week. The purchase price of rice bran meal market: 1510 yuan/ton in Jiamusi, 1510 yuan/ton, Zhaoqing, Guangdong, 1940 yuan/ton, both down 30 yuan/ton; Xuzhou, Jiangsu 1680 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; Yingkou, Liaoning 1680 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; Hubei Jingmen 1780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Rice husk price: Heilongjiang Jiansanjiang 320 yuan/ton, flat; Hunan Yiyang 400 yuan ton, down 30 yuan / ton. (This article was originally published in the A03 edition of the Grain and Oil Market News on May 11, 2024)