NOAA released a new round of El Niño changes, once again determining whether La Niña will return, and it has to be said that this climate change may enter an unusual state again.
Moreover, both El Niño and La Niña illustrate one thing, that is, global climate change, purely from the perspective of "global warming", is complex and changeable.
Therefore, whether it is converted or not, it may bring about a different change process, so let's take a look at the situation in detail.
El Niño is in transition
Indeed, El Niño has remained strong since its development last year and has affected the temperature of the entire planet.
No, in the period around the beginning of 2024, after reaching its peak, it has been weakening, which is not only the judgment given by NOAA, but also the mainland, Australia and other climate centers all believe that the El Niño phenomenon is weakening, and this time, NOAA has re-identified the problem through observation.
According to the ERSSTv5 dataset (mean = 1991-2020), the mean sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean in April was still 0.8°C above the average,
However, the latest weekly measurements from the OISSTv2 dataset show that it has been seen to be 0.5°C above average, and given the El Niño threshold of 0.5°C, NOAA believes it is already on the verge of transitioning to neutral conditions, so El Niño is in transition.
However, I have to say that under the state of experiencing El Niño, the world's temperature has developed a different state, which surprises many people, that is, the earth is constantly refreshing the global "single month" data, no, in April 2024, although El Niño has weakened, but the extreme weather phenomenon it causes, there is also a part of it.
According to data released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the global average surface temperature in April this year was 15.03 °C, 0.67 °C higher than the average temperature in April during 1991~2020, and 0.16 °C higher than the previous historical extreme, the record in 2016.
Compared with the average temperature in April in the pre-industrial period (1850~1900), it is also 1.58°C higher, and the latest data has also extended this round of global heatwave to a new high for the 11th month.
Of course, this is true not only for land areas, but also for marine areas, where the global average ocean surface temperature reached 21.04°C in April this year, marking the 13th consecutive month of new temperature records for the same period.
This clearly illustrates one thing, and that is that the global impact of El Niño is very clear.
However, after the end of El Niño, the stability of the climate will not last long, because La Niña is about to return, and NOAA has announced the return of La Niña again, which is not much at all, and almost certainly explains.
NOAA: La Niña may return in July, with a 69% probability
Indeed, after El Niño, La Niña generally develops, because the two phenomena are "mutual" and basically rotate.
But with the change of the global climate, the law of change of this phenomenon is also confused, there is no strong law, before El Niño, everyone also saw the emergence of a rare triple La Niña.
Therefore, the laws of nature do exist, but they are not absolute.
This time, NOAA has also made it clear that La Niña is likely to return, and La Niña is expected to form in late summer and last at least until early winter.
From the point of view of the time node, there is only a time error of about 2 months, which is the time stage of the transition. So, very soon, the Earth's climate change will change again.
In terms of months, La Niña regression is close to 50% from June to August, but from July to September, La Niña has a 69% chance of formation. Therefore, this probability is quite high, and La Niña may return in July, with a probability of 69%. This basically affirms its appearance.
The peak occurs in winter, however, once such a transition occurs, the impact on the continent will also change again, for the continent, the impact of El Niño and La Niña events is mainly reflected in two aspects, temperature and precipitation.
El Niño will lead to increased precipitation in the south and less water in the north in the continental summer, which will lead to warmer winters or even warm winters, while La Niña will cause dust, floods, droughts, etc.
The effects of La Niña on the continent include an increase in tropical cyclones, which are prone to drought in the south and floods in the north, and cold spells and even cold winters in winter.
Therefore, the climate change in winter will undergo a big change, but it should be emphasized here that the climate change of the continent is not affected by a single climate factor, in winter, in addition to the El Niño phenomenon, atmospheric circulation, Arctic sea ice, Eurasian snow cover and other climate phenomena will have an impact.
Therefore, the winter is very complicated, but in terms of the overall data, the probability of a cold winter is a little larger, and the climate change of continental regionalization is also very strong, there are cold winters, there may also be warm winters, but under the sum of all regions, the cold winters are a little stronger.
But as global warming continues to increase, cold winters are actually weakening, and there are more warm winters.
Then, we only need to pay attention to the extreme cold, which is commonly known as the "ice and fire" climate phenomenon.
La Niña is returning, the planet is about to cool down, will it be even colder?
Indeed, whether it is La Niña or El Niño, it will have a certain impact on the earth, and El Niño generally has a warming effect, and La Niña is the cooling effect of the earth.
Although cooling and cooling seem to be in this state, the impact on the whole planet is "insignificant".
The occurrence of La Niña is completely unlikely if the temperature of the entire planet continues to fall.
Because El Niño is short-lived in warming the planet, Naranina's "cooling, cooling" effect on global warming is also broken. So, the cooling effect will only temporarily slow the rise in global temperatures, but it will not stop or reverse the long-term trend of global warming.
Now you understand, right? Don't pick up half a halt and run, these two are not the same situation at all, so don't get excited.
However, whether it is a brief increase in temperature or a short period of cooling, there is no change, and the trigger climate is more volatile.
Therefore, in winter, we must pay attention to the extreme cold, and in autumn we must also pay attention to the extreme high temperature, which is the climate phenomenon of "both sides", we should also experience from the perspective of global warming, the four seasons of spring, summer, autumn and winter have actually changed, but this change is not very strong.
Therefore, human beings need to increase the maintenance of the climate, which may bring more extreme weather phenomena.
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