On May 11, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national consumer price index (CPI) and industrial producer price (PPI) data for April. The data shows that the year-on-year increase in CPI has been positive for three consecutive months, and the month-on-month increase has changed from a decline to an increase; The year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed and decreased month-on-month.
Vegetable section of a supermarket.
The year-on-year increase in CPI expanded slightly
Data show that in April this year, the national CPI rose by 0.3% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2% month-on-month and fell 0.6% in the previous month. It rose 0.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month.
The rise and fall of consumer prices nationwide. (Picture from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics)
From a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 0.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and was in the positive range for three consecutive months. Among them, food prices fell by 2.7%, the same rate as the previous month, affecting the CPI to decline by about 0.49 percentage points year-on-year. Non-food prices rose by 0.9%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.77 percentage points year-on-year.
Consumer prices rose and fell year-on-year in April. (Picture from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics)
Among the foodstuffs, the price of eggs decreased by 10.6%, affecting the CPI by about 0.07 percentage points, the price of fresh fruits decreased by 9.7%, affecting the CPI by about 0.22 percentage points, the price of livestock and meat decreased by 3.2%, affecting the CPI by about 0.10 percentage points, of which the price of pork rose by 1.4%, affecting the CPI by about 0.02 percentage points, the price of fresh vegetables rose by 1.3%, affecting the CPI by about 0.03 percentage points, and the price of grain rose by 0.5%. The impact on the CPI rose by about 0.01 percentage points.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of March, the national breeding sow herd was 39.92 million, a pullback for 9 consecutive months, equivalent to 102.4% of the target of 39 million heads. Judging from the statistics of Zhuochuang Information, the average price of live pig transactions in April was 15.1 yuan/kg, up 2.26% month-on-month, and the price has recovered to a certain extent. At present, a number of A-share listed companies have said that since the beginning of this year, the company's pig breeding business has reduced losses significantly, and has achieved profitability in some time periods.
On a month-on-month basis, the CPI rose 0.1%, compared with a 1.0% decline in the previous month. Among them, food prices fell by 1.0%, 2.2 percentage points narrower than the previous month, affecting the CPI to decline by about 0.19 percentage points month-on-month. Non-food prices rose by 0.3% from a decrease of 0.5% in the previous month, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.27 percentage points month-on-month.
Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained that in non-food, affected by the increase in travel during the small and long holidays, the prices of air tickets, transportation rental fees, hotel accommodation and tourism all changed from falling to rising, with increases of 15.3%, 9.0%, 4.0% and 2.7% respectively, totaling the CPI rose by about 0.12 percentage points month-on-month; affected by the rise in international gold prices and oil prices, domestic gold jewelry and gasoline prices rose by 8.7% and 3.0% respectively. The total impact of the CPI rose by about 0.15 percentage points month-on-month.
On April 16, Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference on the operation of the national economy in the first quarter that from the perspective of future trends, CPI will slowly rise at a low level. On the one hand, the economy continues to improve and aggregate demand rebounds, which is a very important fundamental factor to support the rebound of CPI; In addition, the prices of some agricultural products have also reached an inflection point in price adjustment.
The year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed
In April this year, industrial production continued to recover, the demand of some industries fell in stages, and the national PPI fell month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline narrowed. According to the data, in April, the national PPI fell by 2.5% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points narrower than the previous month, and 0.2% month-on-month. From January to April, the PPI averaged 2.7% lower than the same period last year.
Rise and fall in the ex-factory prices of industrial producers. (Picture from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics)
On a year-on-year basis, PPI fell by 2.5%, 0.3 percentage points narrower than the previous month. Among them, the prices of means of production fell by 3.1 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, and the prices of means of subsistence fell by 0.9 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points.
On a month-on-month basis, PPI fell by 0.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the prices of means of production fell by 0.2 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, and the prices of means of subsistence fell by 0.1 percent, the same rate of decline as the previous month.
Dong Lijuan said that affected by the upward trend in international crude oil and non-ferrous metal prices, the prices of domestic oil and gas extraction industry, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries increased by 3.4% and 1.0% month-on-month respectively; The prices of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry rose by 3.2%, of which the prices of gold smelting and copper smelting increased by 8.0% and 5.8% respectively. Coal supply was abundant, thermal coal demand fell seasonally, and coal mining and washing industry prices fell by 3.0%.
Since mid-April, the supply and demand of the steel market have improved slightly, prices have risen, and the average for the whole month is still down, and the price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry has decreased by 2.5%. In the equipment manufacturing industry, the manufacturing prices of gasoline and diesel vehicles and new energy vehicles decreased by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively, and the prices of computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing decreased by 0.2%. In the consumer goods manufacturing industry, the prices of cultural, educational, articraft, sports and recreational goods manufacturing, and textiles, garments and apparel industries rose by 1.7 percent and 0.1 percent respectively.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that from an international point of view, global commodity prices continued to rise in mid-to-early April, but they rebounded in the second half of the year due to short-term over-rise and other factors. From a domestic point of view, the price differentiation between upstream and downstream is more obvious. The South China Industrial Products Index averaged 3.2% month-on-month in April. From the perspective of the main prices in the circulation field, among the upstream energy products, the price of oil has risen, and the price of natural gas and coal has fallen; Ferrous metals fell, while non-ferrous metals rose. Most of the midstream chemicals rose, while cement and float glass fell.
A reporter from China Business Daily learned that PPI reflects the price of products in the production link and upstream field of national economic activities, and plays an important role in monitoring macroeconomic operation and analyzing and predicting the price change trend of downstream products. Like the CPI, the PPI is an important indicator of inflation (tightening). The relevant departments study the trend of inflation (tightening) by monitoring the PPI, and conduct macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. It is generally believed that moderate inflation is favorable. Rising prices will stimulate manufacturers to produce more, and because they are worried about future price increases, people are willing to spend more, so that the demand and supply in the economy will increase, and the economy will develop for the better.