► Securities Times: "Irrational decline" has become the general view of many institutions on the recent price trend of the photovoltaic industry chain. Pessimistic expectations for the market and high inventory pressure are the main factors leading to the continuous decline in prices, and polysilicon prices have exceeded the cash costs of most enterprises, and the maintenance expectations of enterprises have intensified.
► Canalys: In the first quarter, Huawei ranked first in China's smartphone shipments and Apple fifth. The new generation of generative AI phones is expected to account for 12% of shipments in the Chinese market in 2024, leading the global average of 9%. Chinese manufacturers will gradually move out of differentiation in R&D and AI product strategies, which will jointly drive consumer awareness and adoption of AI products.
► CCTV Finance: Affected by persistent inflation, a large number of Japanese goods have risen in price. This week, Coca-Cola Japan said that many of its products will raise prices, with an increase of up to nearly 2%. Japanese fast-food chain Mos Burger also announced that some items rose by 16%, and a number of Apple tablets also saw price increases. After the price adjustment, related goods are generally about 10,000 yen, or about 466 yuan.
Macroeconomic
1. Central Bank: Release China's monetary policy implementation report for the first quarter of 2024. Implement a market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates, prevent high-interest solicitation of deposits, maintain the order of market competition, and strive to stabilize the cost of bank liabilities. Straighten out the relationship between loan interest rates and bond yields and other market interest rates, and promote a steady decline in comprehensive social financing costs. Strengthen the management of expectations, resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
2. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: In May, it was predicted that in 2024/25, the sown area of sugarcane will increase slightly and is expected to increase to 11 million tons, the consumption will be basically flat, and the gap between domestic sugar production and demand will be narrowed. China's edible vegetable oil output was 29.9 million tons, down 570,000 tons from the previous season, mainly due to lower soybean imports and crushing consumption. China's total corn output was 297.01 million tons, an increase of 2.8% year-on-year.
3. Foreign Exchange Bureau: In the first quarter, the mainland's current account surplus was 281 billion yuan, of which the surplus in trade in goods was 870.2 billion yuan and the deficit in trade in services was 438.8 billion yuan. In the capital and financial accounts, reserve assets increased by 311.8 billion yuan.
4. Seven departments including the Ministry of Civil Affairs: Recently issued the "Guiding Opinions on Strengthening the Supervision of Advance Fees for Pension Institutions", and the period of advance collection of pension service fees shall not exceed 12 months. The advance fee of the pension institution is mainly used to offset the expenses that the elderly need to pay during their stay in the institution, make up for the lack of funds for the construction of the institution's facilities, or develop the institution's pension service business. Membership fees shall not be used for high-risk investments such as non-self-use real estate, securities, and financial derivatives.
5. China Securities News: Since the beginning of this year, the impact of the "integration of newspapers and banks" in the bancassurance channel has continued to appear. A number of banks reported declines in intermediary business income, such as net fee and commission income. After the "integration of newspapers and banks", the data of income scale has shrunk, which is difficult to avoid in the short term, and the "two-way running" relationship between banks and insurance companies is still there, but it is necessary to carry out a reconstruction to help the insurance industry reduce the cost of liabilities and improve the quality of bancassurance cooperation.
6. WHO: Recently, there has been an outbreak of avian influenza in several dairy farms in the United States, and there has been a case of human infection. The avian influenza A(H5N1) virus has not shown signs of adapting to human-to-human transmission. The risk to public health is "low" and the risk of infection is "low to moderate" for occupational contacts.
Real estate dynamics
1. Central Bank: Release China's monetary policy implementation report for the first quarter of 2024. According to the city's policies, we will accurately implement differentiated housing credit policies, better support the demand for rigid and improved housing, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems without discrimination, and coordinate the study of policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize incremental housing. Strengthen the financial guarantee for the construction of affordable housing, urban villages, and public infrastructure construction, and promote the acceleration of the construction of a new model of real estate development.
2. Beike Research Institute: Compared with the daily average value in April, after Hangzhou's "comprehensive cancellation of purchase restrictions", the number of second-hand housing inquiries increased by 54% on the first day; The number of new purchases of second-hand houses increased by 91%; The number of new home inquiries increased by 96%. Judging from the feedback from intermediary stores, the proportion of inquiries about the adjustment of the identification of the first home is the highest, followed by the consultation of many foreign buyers to buy a house, as well as the consultation of the popular "old and small" home purchases.
3. Huizhou Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: According to data, as of the end of March, the de-conversion cycle of commercial housing in Huizhou exceeded 36 months, which was 57.9 months, which is untrue. As of the end of April, the digestion period of commercial residential inventory in Huizhou was less than 30 months, which belonged to the range of 18 months to 36 months. The new real estate policy has played a positive role in promoting the recovery of the market, and the number of residents looking at houses during the "May Day" period has doubled month-on-month, and real estate sales have rebounded steadily.
4. Zhengzhou City, Henan Province: The pilot period and pilot area will be cancelled from now on. In Zhengdong New District, High-tech Zone, Economic Development Zone, Zhongyuan District, Erqi District, Jinshui District, Guancheng District, Huiji District and other eight districts in the city, the work of "selling the old and buying the new, exchanging the old for the new" has been carried out in an all-round way. The age of second-hand housing acquired by the Urban Development Housing Company has been relaxed to 20 years.
Stock market stock
1. On Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 3154.55 points, up 0.01%, with a turnover of 406.708 billion. The Shenzhen Component Index was reported at 9731.24 points, down 0.58%, with a turnover of 505.825 billion. The GEM index was reported at 1878.17 points, down 1.15%, with a turnover of 225.069 billion. Overall, individual stocks fell more and rose less, and more than 3,800 stocks in the whole market fell. The turnover of the two cities was 912.5 billion, an increase of 11.4 billion from the previous trading day. On the disk, artificial meat, real estate, electricity, precious metals and other sectors were among the top gainers, while dyes, ST plates, flying cars, semiconductors and other sectors were among the top decliners. Northbound funds sold a net of 6.304 billion yuan throughout the day, including a net sale of 2.134 billion yuan in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net sale of 4.17 billion yuan in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
2. On Friday, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.3% to 18,963.68 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.38% to 3,962.32. The state-owned enterprises index rose 2.41% to 6,718.86 points. Domestic housing stocks and pension concept stocks led the rise, and Shimao Group rose 60%; NFT concept stocks and integrated circuit concept stocks led the decline. Southbound funds had a net inflow of HK$6,505 million. Among them, the net inflow of Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai) was HK $3.206 billion, and the net inflow of Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen) was HK $3.299 billion.
3. As of May 10, there were 248 listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and there were no new ones on the same day. The total market value is 344.781 billion yuan, and the transaction value is 4.225 billion yuan.
4. Financing balance of the two cities: As of May 9, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 791.298 billion yuan, an increase of 325 million yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 703.785 billion yuan, an increase of 92 million yuan from the previous trading day, and the total of the two cities was 1495.083 billion yuan, an increase of 417 million yuan from the previous trading day.
5. China Securities Regulatory Commission: issued the revised "Provisions on Strengthening the Supervision of Listed Securities Companies". Listed securities companies are required to strive to return to their origins and become better and stronger with a clearer people's position, stricter compliance risk control, and more standardized and transparent information disclosure. Listed securities companies are clearly required to focus on their main responsibilities and main businesses, and put functionality in the first place. Listed securities companies disclose the specific situation and compliance of major risk control indicators such as net capital in quarterly reports, interim reports, and annual reports.
6. Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange: This week, self-regulatory measures were taken against 70 and 129 abnormal securities trading behaviors respectively, involving abnormal trading situations such as intraday lifting and suppression, false declarations, etc.; The Shenzhen Exchange focuses on monitoring the abnormal rise and fall of securities such as "Zhengdan shares" and "Langyuan shares".
7. Shanghai Securities News: According to market sources, the regulator is considering reducing the 20% income tax that mainland individual investors need to pay when they invest in Hong Kong-listed companies through the Hong Kong Stock Connect when they receive dividends. HKEX declined to comment.
8. China Securities News: As of the end of April, the average annual loss of private equity institutions has narrowed to about 3%. The current average position level has also recovered to a year-to-date relative high of 79.01%. Some private equity institutions said that at this stage, the A-share market as a whole may be on a "slow bull road", and the investment opportunities in the market will be more diversified this year.
9. CICC: If the dividend tax reduction and exemption of Hong Kong Stock Connect is implemented, it is expected to further boost the enthusiasm of mainland investors for Hong Kong stocks. It is estimated that assuming that mainland individual investors account for about 1/4 of their investment in Hong Kong Stock Connect, it is estimated that the direct tax relief brought by this potential adjustment will be about HK$10 billion per year. If public funds are also included, the tax deductions that may be brought about will be expanded to about HK$20 billion.
10. Tianfeng Securities: The overall military electronics in the first quarter is still in a downward cycle, and the fourth and first quarter statements have fully reflected the impact of product price adjustments and downstream procurement cycles. Looking forward to the second quarter to the third quarter, the industry is expected to usher in the recovery of overall industry orders, bringing opportunities for fundamental reversal. It is expected that at the end of June and July, the annual turning point of the military electronics sector is expected to appear, and it is optimistic that the military electronics sector in the third quarter may usher in pulse opportunities.
11. CICC: The pig cycle reversal is expected to be strengthened, the sector has entered the layout period, and low-cost and high-elasticity pig enterprises are given priority to benefit. From a cyclical perspective, pig prices from the second quarter to the end of the year have a basis for quarterly upward movement. From the perspective of enterprises, the current financial pressure of pig enterprises has been at a historical extreme, and the upward period of pig prices is a key window for balance sheet repair. From an investment perspective, this round of the market did not rush the pig price, and the right inflection point of the pig price is the key catalyst.
12. Jimin Medical (4 boards): At present, the projects related to the stem cell drug R&D pipeline are in the preclinical stage, and the projects are relatively early. There are many uncertainties in the follow-up R&D promotion. Investors are advised to make prudent decisions and pay attention to preventing investment risks.
13. Nandu Property (4 days and 3 boards): At present, all production and business activities are normal, no major changes have occurred, and no other major events that may have a greater impact on the company's stock price have been found; The company, the controlling shareholder of the company and its actual controller do not have any material information such as material asset restructuring that should be disclosed by the company but has not been disclosed.
14. Tongwei Co., Ltd.: 6 of its subsidiaries (hereinafter referred to as the "seller") recently signed a sales contract for high-purity crystalline silicon products with LONGi Green Energy and its 9 subsidiaries (hereinafter referred to as the "buyer"), agreeing that from 2024 to 2026, the buyer will purchase a total of no less than 862,400 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon products from the seller, and the total amount of this contract is expected to be about 39.1 billion yuan (including tax).
15. Fangda Carbon: In order to improve the efficiency of capital use, rationally use its own funds, and create greater economic benefits, the company intends to use its own funds with a limit of no more than 4 billion yuan to purchase wealth management products.
16. Zheshang Securities: Tongfang Venture Capital and Jiarong Investment publicly listed and transferred the shares of Guodu Securities held by them, with a total transfer share ratio of 7.4159%; The company intends to participate in this auction. In the case of the successful completion of the relevant transactions announced recently, the company will acquire a total of about 1.997 billion shares of Guodu Securities.
17. ST Spring: The wholly-owned subsidiary received the "Administrative Penalty Decision". In the process of selling the Tinghua series of liquor, the subsidiary Tinghua Shengshi used scientifically inconclusive views and unverified user evaluations of "Tinghua" liquor to make misleading commercial promotions and mislead consumers, violating relevant laws and regulations, and imposed a fine of 1.8 million yuan on the party.
Wealth Spotlight
1. Ministry of Finance: From May 10th to 19th, the third and fourth phases of certificate savings bonds will be issued this year. All of them are fixed-interest rate and fixed-term varieties, with a maximum issuance amount of 30 billion yuan, of which the third phase has a term of 3 years, a maximum issuance amount of 15 billion yuan, and an annual coupon rate of 2.38%; The term of the fourth phase is 5 years, with a maximum issuance amount of 15 billion yuan and an annual coupon rate of 2.5%.
2. Finance Associated Press: According to data on May 9, about one out of every 37 homes in the United States is seriously insolvent, and the proportion is even higher in some southern states. In the first few months of this year, 2.7% of homes in the U.S. had loan balances at least 25% above the market value. Mortgages are often severely insolvent when buyers buy at too high prices, or when the down payment is low and the market value of the home does not fall sufficiently.
3. Financial breakfast: hot spots are non-stop, track what you want to hear. Is the decoration of the workstation of contemporary migrant workers new? National culture impresses young people, and listening to folk music on the spot has become a popular fashion? Fancy money saving has become a new trend of young people's financial management? Why is the "vital signs support meal" going viral? The news that young people are reading, financial friends quickly scroll to the end of the article to check out today's financial secretary tracking @Trend, if you like, come and see it every week!
Industry Watch
1. State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission: Recently, the second batch of central enterprises have launched the layout and construction of original technology sources, and supported 40 central enterprises to lay out 52 original technology sources in 36 fields such as quantum information, brain-like intelligence, and biomanufacturing. In the next step, we will strive to achieve a number of original achievements in the fields of quantum information, 6G, deep earth and deep sea, and controlled nuclear fusion.
2. Passenger Car Association: In April, the production and retail sales of passenger cars were 1.988 million and 1.532 million units, respectively, an increase of 14.9% and a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year. Among them, the production and retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 802,000 units and 674,000 units, up 33.5% and 28.3% y/y, respectively. From January to April, passenger car production and retail sales totaled 7.447 million units and 6.364 million units, up 9.1% and 8% y/y, respectively. Among them, the production and retail sales of new energy vehicles were 2.761 million and 2.448 million units, respectively, an increase of 28.8% and 32.9% year-on-year.
3. Post office: In 2023, the postal industry's mail and delivery business volume will complete 162.48 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%. The business income of the postal industry (excluding the direct operating income of the Postal Savings Bank) reached 1,529.30 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%. The revenue of express delivery business accounted for 79.0% of the total revenue of the industry, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year.
4. Data Bureau: Efforts will be made to consolidate the digital foundation. Accelerate the upgrading and deployment of digital infrastructure, and accelerate the construction of digital infrastructure such as industrial Internet, computing power, and mobile Internet of Things. Continuously improve key capabilities. Accelerate research on data security technology systems, strive to improve the level of technical support for data security, and build a solid network security barrier. Promote technological innovation in the field of data and continue to make new breakthroughs.
5. China Academy of Information and Communications Technology: In the first quarter, mainland Internet investment and financing rebounded. The number of Internet investment and financing cases decreased by 1.6% month-on-month and 41.1% year-on-year; The disclosed amount increased by 79.7% month-on-month and decreased by 5% year-on-year.
6. China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association: The resource endowment characteristics of the mainland of "rich in coal, poor in oil and low in gas" determine that the status and role of coal as a backstop energy for the mainland will be difficult to change for a long time in the future. As the main energy source of the mainland, coal is related to the national economy, people's livelihood and the overall economic and social development. The coal industry must enhance its awareness of the dangers and ensure the safety of coal supply.
7. China Iron and Steel Association: The current steel inventory still exceeds the same period in 2020 by 4.0% and the same period in 2021 by 13.9%. There is a significant negative correlation between the inventory level and the sales profit margin, and the higher the inventory, the lower the sales profit margin. At present, the inventory of enterprises is at the highest level in the same period in history, and reducing inventory as soon as possible is the primary task of the current industry to ensure efficiency.
8. IDC: It is predicted that the market size of China's life science digital solutions will reach 36.91 billion yuan in 2023 and reach 55.98 billion yuan by 2028, with a compound growth rate of 8.7% from 2023 to 2028.
9. Omdia: In 2023, shipments of OLED displays will increase significantly, surging by 415% year-on-year. Growth momentum is forecast to continue, with OLED panel shipments expected to increase by 123% year-on-year to 1.84 million units in 2024, driven by industry leaders Samsung Display and LG Display.
10. WHO: Vaccine microneedle patches can effectively protect children from measles infection, and their prospects are promising. People may prefer to get vaccinated through skin patches rather than injections. This technology could be a major breakthrough that will protect susceptible populations from preventable diseases and save lives, especially in low-resource settings.
Company news
1. TSMC: Sales in April were NT$236.02 billion, up 20.9% month-on-month and 59.6% year-on-year. From January to April, sales were NT$828.665 billion, up 26.2% year-on-year.
2. Interface News: It is reported that BYD plans to invest billions of euros in the European Union, involving factories, distribution networks and marketing. The goal is to become the largest seller of electric vehicles in Europe by 2030. BYD will introduce a low-cost electric vehicle based on the Seagull model to the European market, which should be priced at less than 20,000 euros.
3. Finance Associated Press: It is reported that OpenAI plans to announce its AI search product on May 13, which will increase its competition with search giant Google. The announcement date has not been previously reported and is subject to change.
4. Nescafe: It plans to invest 1 billion reais (about 197 million US dollars) in Brazil by 2026 to expand the production capacity and outdoor sales of the company's product line, targeting young consumers.
Global vision
1. Chinanews.com: Due to the long-term lack of precipitation affecting hydropower generation, Costa Rica will limit power nationwide from May 13. Hydropower is the main source of electricity in Costa Rica. It is reported that due to the impact of the El Niño phenomenon, the country's rainfall last year was significantly low, and the water level of the reservoir fell to a very low level, which affected hydropower generation.
Financial data
domestic
1. Zhengshang: Implement trading limits for manganese-silicon futures varieties. Starting from 14 May 2024, the maximum number of open positions for non-FF members or clients in a single day is 2,000 lots in the 2406, 2407, 2408 and 2409 contracts of Manganese Silicon Futures, and 10,000 lots in other Manganese Silicon Futures contracts.
2. New Third Board: On May 10, a total of 6,140 companies were listed, and 1 new company was added on the same day, with a turnover of 260 million. The three-board component index was reported at 828.94, up 0.19%, with a turnover of 148 million.
3. Domestic commodity futures: As of the close of the afternoon of May 10, the closing was mixed, with the European line up more than 7%, manganese silicon up more than 5%, Shanghai silver up more than 4%, Shanghai tin up more than 3%, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai nickel, Shanghai gold up more than 2%, lithium carbonate down more than 3%, soybean oil, palm oil down nearly 2%, soybean oil, cotton, urea, soybean meal, beans fell more than 1%.
4. Treasury bonds: On May 10, the main 2-year treasury bond futures contract TS2406 stabilized at 101.640, the main 5-year treasury bond futures contract TF2406 stabilized at 103.295, and the main 10-year treasury bond futures contract T2406 rose 0.01% to 104.295. The 10-year Treasury rate fell 0.64BP to 2.31%; The 10-year CDB rate fell 0.75bp to 2.38%.
5. Shanghai International Energy Exchange: On May 10, the main crude oil futures contract 2407 closed at 622.6 yuan / barrel, up 9.0 yuan, or 1.47%. All contracts traded 115225 lots, and open interest increased by 180 lots to 56,029 lots. The main contract traded 29,018 lots, and the open interest increased by 1,169 lots to 23,085 lots.
6. Central Bank: On May 10, a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan was carried out, and the winning interest rate was 1.80%, the same as before. Because there was no reverse repurchase expiration on the same day, a net investment of 2 billion yuan was realized.
7. Shibor: 1.7330% overnight, up 0.60 basis points. The 7-day was at 1.8360%, up 1.40 basis points. The 3-month report was 1.9890%, down 0.20 basis points.
8. RMB: The onshore RMB closed at 7.2246 against the US dollar at 16:30, up 0.0166%, and the central parity of the RMB was reported at 7.1011, up 0.0239%.
9. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: On May 10, the trading volume of the carbon emission allowance listing agreement in the national carbon market was 1,010 tons, with a turnover of 101,000 yuan and a closing price of 99.00 yuan/ton, up 0.93%.
abroad
10. Asia: The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.41% to 38,229.11 points. South Korea's KOSPI rose 0.57% to 2,727.67 points.
11. U.S. stocks: The Dow closed up 0.32% at 39,512.84, the Nasdaq closed down 0.03% at 16,340.87, and the S&P 500 closed up 0.16% at 5,222.68.
12. Europe: Britain's FTSE 100 closed up 0.63% at 8,433.76 points, Germany's DAX30 closed up 0.46% at 18,772.85 points, and France's CAC40 closed up 0.38% at 8,219.14 points.
13. Gold: COMEX gold futures closed up 1.14% at $2366.9 an ounce.
14. Crude oil: WTI June crude oil futures closed down 1.26% at $78.26 per barrel; Brent crude futures for July delivery closed down 1.3% at $82.79 a barrel.
15. Baltic Dry Bulk Index: down 1.71% to 2129 points.
· @Trend·
► Young people in the decoration station: The decoration of the worker's workstation is new again! This time, it has changed from flowers and plants to "crops". Recently, a new trend has been sparked on social platforms, raising hydroponic bananas in the office. Some merchants cut down the millet bananas and apple bananas that are abundant in Guangxi, Fujian and other places, decorated them into green plants for sale, and sent them to the workers' desks. This novel green plant is very popular with young people and has become a popular item at everyone's workstation. "Who the hell came up with the idea of selling bananas as greenery?" While lamenting the whimsy of the merchants, netizens quickly placed orders to make office "conspicuous bags". In the fast-paced work, a touch of green on the workstation has become a cure for workers.
► Young people are listening to folk music: new ethnic musicians are "out of the circle" on various platforms, and tickets for popular performances are hard to find...... Nowadays, more and more young people are willing to pay for national music. Recently, at the performance of Kazakh musician Milan Buick, the audience and musicians danced the Kazakh dance "Black Walking Horse" together. The auditorium was full, and many of the late spectators even sat on the stairs. During the performance, Milan Buick successively displayed five traditional Kazakh musical instruments, and the audience was immersed in the music and swayed to the rhythm of the music. When contemporary Chinese young people appreciate music, they are also thinking about their own cultural background, and they are beginning to jump out of the mainstream Western music perspective to pursue their own cultural identity.
► Young people are saving money in a "fancy" way: saving money in a fancy way has become a new trend in financial management. Find a "partner" to save money and encourage each other to save money, the "12 Certificates of Deposit Law" compulsorily deposit money, and the deposit special forces buy high-interest deposits in different places...... When the "Moonlight Clan" became an outdated portrait of the younger generation in the past, this generation of young people was keen to save money, buy insurance, and repeatedly made strange moves in financial management, opening a road of "fancy saving". Behind the single-hand insurance policy is a change in the attitude of this generation of young people, just as the investment guru Munger said, when I reach a certain stage of life, I am determined to become a rich person. It's not because of the love of money, it's about pursuing that sense of independence.
► Young people eating a light meal: a corn with two eggs, a lettuce with a few boiled shrimp, a plate of salad with a cup of coffee. Recently, a diet nicknamed "vital signs maintenance meal" has become popular among young people. This diet is characterized by cold, vegetarian, and low amounts, basically no oil and salt, reducing cooking steps, simple and convenient to make, and looks green and healthy. However, experts warn that this popular "vital signs maintenance meal" is low in calories overall, has a single nutrient element, and does not consume enough carbohydrates. Eat a healthy diet with vegetables, protein foods, and starchy staples at every meal. Cereals and legumes are the main sources of carbohydrates, which maintain the body's basic metabolism.
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