Text丨Curious Mai Mai
Editor丨Curious Mai Mai
Preamble:
In the international economic field, the competition and exchange of currencies between countries has always been a topic of great concern. Among them, the yen, as one of the top three currencies in the world, its exchange rate fluctuations have affected the hearts of countless people.
Not so long ago, the Bank of Japan intervened on a large scale in the yen, which caused a noticeable depreciation of its exchange rate against other currencies. However, despite this, I believe that the yen will inevitably usher in a complete "collapse", and this time the depreciation is not just a temporary "adjustment", but a deeper economic problem.
1. The intervention of the Bank of Japan
Recently, the issue of the yen exchange rate has been on the cusp of public opinion. The reason for this is that not long ago, the Bank of Japan carried out an extremely "hawkish" intervention on the yen, which caused its exchange rate to depreciate sharply in a short period of time, and the magnitude is simply unbelievable.
In this intervention, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) did almost "unscrupulous" to stabilize the yen's exchange rate by not only intervening directly on a large scale, but also selling off its holdings of U.S. government bonds through various other means.
It can be said that their measures did work, and the exchange rate of the yen suffered a huge shock, falling directly from the original 160 to 151, a full increase of 6%.
It is conceivable that such exchange rate fluctuations will undoubtedly be a heavy "blow" to other countries, and will also make the "threat level" of the yen skyrocket, becoming a "stumbling block" to the trade of other countries.
Second, the yen will inevitably collapse
However, despite the obvious results of this move by the Bank of Japan, I believe that this does not hide the fact that the yen will inevitably "collapse", and the so-called depreciation is only a "symptom" of Japan's economic problems, and it cannot fundamentally solve the real economic dilemma.
It can be said that the reasons behind such a depreciation of the yen are very complex, and they are also a microcosm of the outbreak of problems that have accumulated in the Japanese economy for a long time.
Japan's macroeconomic situation has not been very good, and it has been in a "downturn" for a long time. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, Japan's economic growth has even experienced negative growth, which has undoubtedly brought a great "shock" to Japan's economy and the value of its currency has been greatly negatively affected.
Japan's deflationary problem has not been effectively alleviated. Behind this phenomenon is a vicious circle of problems in the structure of the entire economy and pessimism about the future economic development of companies and residents, which has made Japan's economic problems worse.
Japan's population and aging population are also major challenges for its economy. Such a problem will not only put tremendous pressure on society as a whole, but will also have a "dragging" effect on the long-term development of the economy, thus preventing Japan's economy from truly "recovering".
To sum up, it can be seen that the depreciation of the yen is not just a temporary "short-term adjustment", but an important "signal" that has erupted from various problems in the Japanese economy for a long time, and it is also a precursor to Japan's inevitable profound economic "adjustment".
Among them, the "collapse" of the yen is almost inevitable, because the economic pressure behind it cannot be easily solved by some "superficial articles".
Third, it is impossible to sell U.S. bonds
Some people may think that Japan, as a country with strong foreign exchange reserves, should be able to "fight back" at any time and stabilize its exchange rate by selling US Treasury bonds to effectively "counteract".
However, in fact, Japan does not have such "courage", they simply do not dare to confront the United States, and they are unable to make effective countermeasures, and the reason behind this is that Japan's "dependence" on the United States has reached an insurmountable point for a long time.
It can be said that Japan's current holdings of US Treasury bonds have exceeded $1 trillion, which is simply a "bottomless pit" for Japan, and once these Treasury bonds are sold, not only will they not be able to fundamentally solve the problem of the exchange rate, but they will also bring huge "harm" to themselves, and even plunge themselves into a deeper economic crisis.
It can be said that such a national debt has become an obvious "soft underbelly", which has also completely "deflated" Japan's "hard" capitalism and made it unable to effectively resist it, and also made Japan's economy and currency completely lose its "autonomy" and can only passively accept the "influence" from other countries.
Fourth, Japan's prospects
In the face of such a severe economic situation and insurmountable external pressures, Japan's prospects are naturally full of "challenges" and "unknowns".
It can be said that if the current situation cannot be effectively alleviated, Japan's economy will inevitably return to a long-term state of "deflation" again, and there will even be no further growth, which will undoubtedly be a very big "blow" to the whole country and will also greatly "impact" the people's lives.
In the face of such a problem, Japan cannot "insist on going its own way," and in "multifaceted" international relations, it is also very difficult, and even "impossible," to truly "detach" from the influence of the United States.
The only way to do this is to seek more "development opportunities" through "close cooperation" with other countries, so that our own economy can get some "compensation" among other "positive" factors, so as to achieve a real "breakthrough" and "recovery".
Among them, China has become a very "important" country, and it is also a "partner" that Japan can rely on, and only by carrying out "comprehensive cooperation" with China can it achieve its own "turnaround" and make its own economy truly return to a "stable" and "healthy" state of development.
However, such "comprehensive cooperation" is not so easy to achieve, and it also requires both sides to have a very "long-term" and "far-sighted" "vision", and also to overcome all "difficulties" and "resistances".
Epilogue:
It can be seen that the yen's exchange rate problem is not just a "temporary" "depreciation" turmoil, but an "explosion" of Japan's long-term economic problems, and it is also the epitome of its inevitable "collapse".
Among them, Japan cannot effectively carry out "countermeasures", and even cannot sell the "white strips" in its hands, so it can only passively accept the "influence" of other countries, which has also plunged its economy into unprecedented "challenges" and "crises".
However, in the face of such problems, Japan cannot "insist on going its own way", and only through "cooperation" with other countries can it achieve "breakthrough" and "recovery", and among them, China has become a very "important" "partner" for it, and it is also a country that can give it "help" and "support".
Only when the two sides can have a very "long-term" "vision" can they achieve "real" "cooperation", and let their own economies be "compensated" by "favorable" factors from other countries, and finally achieve "win-win", so that it is possible to truly get out of the "quagmire" of economic problems and usher in "stable" and "healthy" development.