The choice is greater than the effort, the wrong route is chosen, and every step is wrong
At present, there are two ways to replenish energy for pure electric new energy vehicles: charging and battery swapping.
NIO is an adherent and persistent promoter of the method of battery swapping and energy supplementation.
On May 8, NIO and GAC reached a strategic cooperation agreement, and together with Changan Automobile, Geely Holdings, Jiangqi Group, Chery Automobile, and Lotus, a total of seven car companies have joined NIO's so-called "battery swap alliance".
In addition, Anhui Energy Group, Anhui Provincial Traffic Control Group, China Southern Power Grid and other enterprises have reached strategic cooperation agreements with NIO and become non-car companies in the "Battery Swap Alliance".
It looks beautiful and fierce, but it's actually a joke.
Below, the editor argues from three aspects: the essence of the Strategic Cooperation Agreement, the consumer side, and the investor side.
The essence of the strategic cooperation agreement
Formally, the so-called strategic cooperation agreement, as well known to those who are familiar with business, is a letter of intent for cooperation.
Its role is more of a declaration to the outside world by the parties to the agreement on the areas of engagement between the two sides. In terms of the degree of contact, it may be that people on both sides have just added WeChat.
This type of agreement is generally face-oriented, so that both parties have press releases.
In essence, NIO's Strategic Cooperation Agreement states that "the two parties will carry out all-round and multi-level in-depth strategic cooperation in battery standards, battery swap technology, asset management and operation of Shenchi, construction and operation of battery swap service network, R&D and customization of battery swap models, and charging interconnection involved in the battery swap industry." ”
Such content is broad, there is almost no substantive content of rights and obligations, and it can often be done with 2 sheets of A4 paper, which lacks binding force.
Specifically, the focus of the strategic cooperation between the two sides is around battery swapping. That is, it is necessary for another 7 car companies to develop models that can provide battery swapping and energy supplementation.
At present, these seven car companies have almost no battery replacement models, and it is unrealistic to invest in such production lines in order to cooperate with NIO. This undoubtedly makes it more difficult for the agreement to continue to be implemented.
Therefore, whether in form or substance, for the so-called "Strategic Cooperation Agreement", the people who eat melons can understand it as a blank agreement.
Consumer: 3 minutes, is it really 3 minutes?
Consumers' usage scenarios can be broadly divided into long-distance/highway service area scenarios, commuting scenarios, and home charging pile scenarios.
In the case that the supercharging technology is not widely rolled out, the best use scenario of the battery swap mode is the expressway service area, which is also the only use scenario with advantages of the battery swap mode at present.
But this scenario occurs less often and is not convincing.
For urban commuting scenarios, in first-tier cities, the density of fast charging/overcharging is much higher than that of battery swap stations. Last month, Shenzhen's fast charging gun head has surpassed the refueling gun head, and this indicator can even be understood as charging is more convenient than refueling. What is the comparison between the battery swap mode and the charging mode?
Because the site requirements and investment costs of the battery swap station are much higher than those of the charging pile, it is destined that the battery swap station cannot compare the density with the charging pile.
Density represents convenience, when the density of the battery swap station is too low, you will find that the 3 minutes that the battery swap fans brag about is actually a lie.
The 3 minutes that the fans of the battery swap fan said is the time to change the battery, and he didn't tell you how many minutes it took on the road in order to find the battery swap station.
In the home use scenario, after having a home charging pile, you will never consider a battery swap station. When the owner gets home from work, he plugs the gun in and pulls it out the next day.
Car owners don't bother to listen to NIO boast of that 3 minutes.
Investment side: The threshold is high, and it is destined not to bloom everywhere.
Capital investment in battery swap stations is not charity, and profit is the only goal.
Whether it is capital requirements or site requirements, the cost of battery swap stations is higher than the threshold of charging piles. High costs and high thresholds mean risk, but also higher returns.
High risk, doomed to the cautious attitude of capital, the result is that battery swap stations will definitely not bloom everywhere.
Demanding high returns means that car owners (consumers) will pay a higher cost for battery replacement, at least more expensive than charging.
In addition, NIO's models usually support two forms of battery swapping and charging, and when charging is cheaper than battery swapping, will car owners still go all the way to find a battery swap station for battery swapping?
In the case that NIO's own car owners have a variety of energy replenishment options, it means that investing in battery swap stations is facing a great problem of customer source, and the NIO model itself does not belong to the mainstream model, which makes the customer source problem worse.
Therefore, the battery swap station can only be built and played by NIO itself. The reality is also true.
At present, NIO claims to have built more than 2,400 battery swap stations, and Li Bin is so keen to promote his own battery swap standards, more because he wants to recover his investment as soon as possible.
NIO has said that NIO's third-generation battery swap stations can reach breakeven with an average of 60 single battery swaps per day, and about 20% of NIO's battery swap stations have reached this standard. From CBN
On the contrary, 80% of NIO's battery swap stations are in a loss-making state. Who would jump into such a hole to fill it?
In addition, the editor wants to expose the lies of the battery swap fans.
Battery swap supporters said that NIO's battery swap station has energy storage function, which is in line with the policy of the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Strengthening the Capacity Building of Power Grid Peak Regulation Energy Storage and Intelligent Dispatching".
The logic of battery swap supporters is that the battery swap station has a reserve battery, which is equivalent to a small energy storage station. In this way, it can iron out peak and valley electricity.
In fact, based on the principle of maximizing profits, NIO will no longer configure too many batteries in the battery swap station. Changing to the mode of leaving one piece quickly, coupled with the site limitation of the battery swap station, how many batteries do you think can be configured in the NIO battery swap station? Can the capacity of these batteries iron out the peak power of valley electricity?
Readers make their own judgment.
To sum up, Weilai's battery swap mode seems to be lively, but it is actually a joke.