On May 10, 2024, according to Ma Dexing, a reporter from "Sports Weekly", the draw ceremony for the top 18 of the Asian region of the World Preliminary Championships will be held in Kuala Lumpur on June 27. Judging from the current situation, once the national football team advances to the round of 18, 99% will be drawn as a team in Pot 5. It is worth mentioning that even if the national football team can draw the lottery, it will be difficult to play, and there may even be an embarrassing scene of 8 points in 10 games.
In the last away game against Thailand, the national football team finally defeated the opponent with the wonderful performances of Wei Shihao, Xie Pengfei and Wu Lei. In this home game, although Wu Lei, the top scorer of the national football team, is suspended, we have Fernando, a small motorcycle (from the current point of view, his injury is not serious, and he should be able to catch up with the game), and Alan is also ready to go. In this case, there is a high possibility that the national football team will win Thailand at home. In the spirit of preparing for a rainy day, it is necessary for us to consider the round of 18 in advance. However, judging from the current situation, even if the national football team is drawn, it will not be able to take much advantage.
According to the latest national team ranking data, the Chinese men's football team has 1275.22 points, ranking 13th in Asia and 88th in the world. The round of 18 will be divided into 3 groups, each group will have 6 teams, and the national football team ranks 13th in Asia, just becoming the 5th team. Now the national football team is 32.29 points less than Asia's 12th Bahrain, and it is unlikely that they will surpass the opponent immediately, and it is unlikely that any of the top 12 in Asia will not enter the round of 18. In this case, if the national football team enters the round of 18, it should be drawn as the fifth pot.
As shown in the figure above, these teams should be the ones who will advance to the round of 18 at that time, and even if the national football team draws the so-called upper sign, it will be difficult to break through. According to the rules of the round of 18, the top two teams from the three groups will directly qualify for the World Cup finals, while the third and fourth places will need to be regrouped for the play-offs. Japan, South Korea, Iran, no matter which of the national football team encounters to get points, it is difficult; Australia, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are also not easy to deal with, and the national football team can play extraordinarily if it can draw; The teams in Pot 3 and Pot 4 are not weak, and the national football team has the possibility of beating them, but they may also be abused by others; The teams in the 6th pot are not soft persimmons, and the national football team is not sure of winning.
Although it seems that it is difficult to win any of them, judging from the performance and state of each team now, the national football team is on the top with Japan, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, Jordan, and India. Indonesia's naturalization is too fierce, and it is a little difficult for the national football team to play against them, only against India seems to have a better chance of winning. Playing Japan and Saudi Arabia, it is fortunate that the national football team can draw at home. In the face of Uzbekistan and Jordan, although the national football team has the possibility of winning, it cannot win steadily. Referring to the record of the top 12 of the last World Preliminaries, the national football team may face Japan with 2 losses and 0 points, and against Saudi Arabia it should be able to mix 1 point, and the 2 teams against Uzbekistan and Jordan are expected to score 2 to 3 points, and India may score 4 points.
From this point of view, there is no weak team in the top 18, even if the national football team can draw the upper draw, it is not easy to play, and it seems lucky to get 8 points after 10 games. It is worth mentioning that this also requires the national football team to win Thailand at home, otherwise we may not even be able to enter the round of 18. I have to admit that Chinese football is too difficult now.