On May 9, the domestic price of refined oil once again came with good news of price reduction. According to the estimation of authoritative forecasting agencies, the prices of gasoline and diesel will be reduced by about 0.15-0.17 yuan/liter respectively in this round of price adjustment cycle. This adjustment is at the current gasoline price level, which means that refueling a tank of gasoline (calculated by 50 liters) can save 7.5-8.5 yuan.
The continued low oil prices undoubtedly make the majority of car owners happy, after all, car consumption is a major expenditure of ordinary people. This round of price adjustment will further ease the pressure on car owners' "fuel fees".
Background and mechanism of price adjustment
The main reason for this round of oil price reduction is that international oil prices have continued to fall recently. The main factors affecting the fluctuation of international oil prices are:
1. Supply and demand
The international crude oil supply was once in surplus, but the performance of the demand side was relatively weak, and the pattern of oversupply dragged down the trend of oil prices.
2. Geopolitical risks
The risk of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has been temporarily eased, which is conducive to the stabilization of international oil prices.
3. The dollar strengthened
The U.S. dollar index continued to rise, leading to a relative depreciation of dollar-denominated crude oil, which weighed on oil prices.
4. Speculative factors
Oil prices are also affected by the speculative buying and selling of funds, and the bullying and shorting of oil prices by speculative funds will exacerbate the volatility of oil prices.
5. Alternative energy impacts
With the continuous development of clean energy, the status of conventional energy may be gradually weakened, and crude oil demand may be under pressure, restricting the upside of oil prices.
The adjustment of the price of refined oil products in mainland China follows the principle of "ensuring reasonable profits, being in line with international standards, and being conducive to environmental protection", and decides whether to adjust domestic oil prices and the extent of adjustment every 10 working days according to the average price level of a basket of international oil products in the whole cycle.
There is a certain lag in this price adjustment mechanism, mainly because the transportation cycle of the mainland's oil reserves is long, and it is necessary to set aside a buffer time to avoid the operational risks caused by the fluctuation of international oil prices at any time. Broadly speaking, oil reserves can be used for about 90 days of normal use.
Analysis of the impact of this round of price adjustment
1. Relieve the pressure of the car owner
After the price adjustment, car owners can save 7.5-8.5 yuan by filling up a tank of gasoline, which can just free up a part of disposable income for the majority of car owners.
2. Good for travel consumption
The decrease in the income-to-expenditure ratio means that consumers' disposable income increases, which is conducive to stimulating consumer demand for automobile tourism and dining out.
3. Reduce the logistics cost of the enterprise
The transportation costs of logistics and distribution companies will fall with the reduction of oil prices, but whether the actual profit can be expanded depends on the flexibility of enterprises to adjust their transportation capacity.
4. Defuse some inflationary pressures
The decline in oil prices will reduce the pressure on residents' daily expenses, ease the upward trend of consumer prices in urban and rural areas, and have a positive significance for maintaining the overall level of inflation stable.
5. Increase the profit margin of the enterprise
On the whole, the decline in oil prices will reduce production and operating costs for enterprises, improve profit levels, and help enterprises expand reproduction and investment.
6. It may increase the loss of gas stations
At a time when gas prices are lowered, there is a risk of a decline in sales profits, which may exacerbate the operating losses of gas station entities.
7. Stimulate the increase in car ownership
The decline in the cost of car owners may stimulate some potential car buyers to release demand, thereby further boosting the increase in car ownership.
8. Renewable energy is at a critical juncture
In the context of the continued low prices of traditional fossil fuels, the time is ripe for the development of renewable energy, and the pace of clean energy substitution may be accelerated.
On the whole, the benefits of this round of oil price reduction outweigh the disadvantages, which will inject more impetus into the smooth operation of the national economy.
The mainland's energy structure has been optimized and upgraded at an accelerated pace
In recent years, the mainland has continuously deepened the structural reform of the energy supply side, increased the development and utilization of clean energy, and continuously optimized the energy structure. As far as the power sector is concerned, the proportion of renewable energy such as wind power and solar energy in 2023 has surpassed that of fossil fuels for many years in a row.
At the same time, the mainland has also further promoted energy conservation and consumption reduction, and improved energy efficiency. In 2023, the mainland's energy consumption per unit of GDP will decline by 3.2% year-on-year, declining for many consecutive years.
It is foreseeable that in the future, the energy consumption structure of the mainland will continue to transform to a green and low-carbon direction, with renewable energy as the main body, and the proportion of conventional fossil energy will continue to decline until it is finally completely replaced. By then, we will have a clean, efficient, safe and sustainable modern energy system.
Prospects
Looking ahead, the supply and demand pattern of the global crude oil market will remain tightly balanced. In the medium term, although the economic growth on the demand side is slowing down, the expansion of capacity on the supply side still faces many uncertainties. Geopolitical risks, trade disputes, extreme weather and other factors in the Middle East can trigger supply shocks.
As the world's largest importer of crude oil, the mainland will continue to promote the exploration and development of domestic oil and gas resources to maintain energy security. At the same time, under the guidance of the concept of green development, the proportion of clean energy consumption has gradually increased, helping to achieve the national "double carbon" goal.
In short, the current round of oil price adjustment reflects the current trend of international oil prices generally remaining low, which will have a certain positive impact on the operation of the national economy and the lives of residents. For car owners, the drop in oil prices is undoubtedly an exciting piece of good news. We will continue to pay attention to the follow-up trend and interpret the relevant policy dynamics and influencing factors for you in a timely manner