Sports: The round of 18 will be drawn on June 27, and if the national football team advances, it is likely to be the fifth team

Understand the Emperor of the Ball

2024-05-09 09:29Posted on the official account of Zhejiang Xiangqiudi

"Sports Weekly" reporter Ma Dexing reported that the AFC has finalized the draw ceremony for the top 18 of the third phase of the World Preliminary Championship in Kuala Lumpur on June 27. If the Chinese team can successfully qualify from the group in the round of 36, it is likely to participate in the group draw for the round of 18 as the fifth bracket team.

Sports: The round of 18 will be drawn on June 27, and if the national football team advances, it is likely to be the fifth team

Seven teams have already secured a place in the round of 18

After four rounds of the World Preliminary Asian Zone of 36, seven teams have qualified from their respective groups in advance and qualified for the round of 18: Qatar in Group 1, Japan in Group 2, Iran and Uzbekistan in Group 5, Iraq in Group 6, UAE in Group 8 and Australia in Group 9. In the two world preliminary competitions in June, the Chinese team will also compete for a place in the qualifiers.

South Korea, who are top of their third group, need just one more point from their remaining two rounds to secure a place in qualifying. The other seat will be contested by the Chinese team and the Thai team. Judging from the current situation, as long as the Chinese team wins the Thai team in the home game in Shenyang on June 6, they can lock in the right to qualify one round in advance. A draw or defeat to Thailand would leave the chances of qualifying.

One reality that must be taken into account is that in the future draw for the round of 18, the AFC and FIFA will use the latest FIFA rankings of national teams as the basis for their classification. South Korea is currently third in Asia with 1,563.99 points, while Australia is fourth with 1,563.93 points. In the two rounds in June, there was not much suspense for Australia to beat Bangladesh and Palestine, which means that they could get enough FIFA ranking technical points; South Korea, on the other hand, will not want to give up their chance to be seeded in the first tier of the round of 18, as they will become the second tier if they are overtaken by Australia and dropped to fourth in the rankings, which means they will have to be in the same group as Japan, Iran or Australia in the future round of 18. If you can keep the status of the first grade, although there is also the possibility of being in the same group as the Australian team, the probability is much smaller after all.

In this case, South Korea will definitely be aiming for a win in the last two rounds of June, especially against China, who are ranked much higher than Australia's two opponents, and a win over China means more FIFA ranking technical points, thus further cementing their position in the first tier. This means that if China cannot win against Thailand, the likelihood of getting at least one point from South Korea when they play South Korea away on June 11 will be greatly reduced.

Therefore, the most realistic goal of the Chinese team is to "finish the battle", and on June 6, Shenyang won the Thai team with the advantage of home and locked the place in the round of 18 in advance, so that it can more easily go to Seoul to challenge the South Korean team, and maybe there will be an unexpected gain.

The national football team basically has a five-level identity

According to the competition plan approved by the AFC Competition Committee submitted to the FIFA Competition Committee, the round of 18 matches will be drawn in Kuala Lumpur on June 27. One of the important reasons why it was set for June 27 is to wait for FIFA to release the latest rankings of national and regional national teams, when the AFC will divide the teams according to their rankings. FIFA is scheduled to announce the next edition of the rankings on June 20, after announcing the current team rankings on April 4.

If the Chinese team can qualify from the round of 36 and advance to the round of 18 in the third stage of the world preliminaries, it is likely to participate in the group draw ceremony as the fifth bracket, because in the first edition of the FIFA rankings on April 4, the Chinese team ranked 88th in the world and 13th in Asia with 1275.22 points. Ranked 12th in Asia, the Bahrain team has 1307.53 technical points, more than 32 points ahead of the Chinese team, in the two rounds of the world preliminary tournament in June, unless the Chinese team defeats the Thai team and the South Korean team in a row, it is possible to catch up with the Bahrain team, rise to the 12th place in Asia, and become the fourth bracket team. Therefore, there is a high probability that the national football team can only participate in the group draw of the top 18 as the fifth bracket.

According to the latest FIFA rankings released on April 4, the brackets of the round of 18 are roughly as follows:

Tier 1: Japan, Iran, South Korea (TBD);

Tier 2: Australia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia (TBD);

Tier 3: Iraq, Uzbekistan, UAE;

Pot 4: Jordan (TBD), Oman (TBD), Bahrain (TBD);

Fifth gear: China (to be determined), Syria (to be determined), Palestine (to be determined);

Pot 6: Kyrgyzstan (TBC), India (or Kuwait), Indonesia (TBD).

According to the method of group draw, the AFC official in charge of drawing will draw one team from each bracket under the supervision of FIFA representatives to form three groups. According to the schedule, the round of 18 will start in the first round on September 5, 2024. Moreover, as the fifth tier of the Chinese team, the first round will directly challenge the first-tier seeded team. On June 10, 2025, the tenth and final round of the round of 18 will begin. The top two teams in the three groups at this stage will directly qualify for the US, Canada and Mexico. The teams that finish third and fourth in the group will advance to the fourth stage of the play-offs.

It should be pointed out that if the Chinese team can qualify for the round of 18, it will also automatically qualify for the final stage of the 2027 Saudi Asian Cup. Once the Chinese team fails to qualify for the round of 18 of the World Preliminaries, it will have no matches to play in the entire second half of 2024, and can only make appointments for some painless friendly matches.

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