This article is based on publicly available information and is for information purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
Produced by / Wine Group of the Company's Research Office
Text/Huai last month
Recently, the disclosure of the annual reports of A-share liquor listed companies has ended.
Judging from the performance in 2023, Kweichow Moutai (600519. SH) industry boss throne is as stable as Mount Tai, Wuliangye (000858. SZ) runner-up position is also still stable, but the third card position of liquor, Yanghe shares (002304. SZ), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809. SH) and Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) are in the midst of a fierce battle.
However, industry insiders said frankly that judging from the financial data in recent years, Yanghe is being comprehensively surpassed by Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, and this card position battle will be known within the year.
In fact, the total market value of Yanghe shares has long been left behind by Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, with a difference of hundreds of billions. Surprisingly, as of the close of trading on May 8, the nominal third liquor Lao, with a total market value of 144.5 billion yuan, and the total market value of Gujing Gongjiu on the same day was 146.7 billion, which had been overtaken by the latter and reduced to the sixth in the industry.
Industry insiders said frankly that according to this trend, the status of the third liquor in Yanghe shares is really hanging!
1. Yanghe's total revenue is temporarily leading, and the growth rate has been surpassed by Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao for five consecutive years
In the past two years, the key financial indicators that can keep Yanghe shares the third largest in the industry are almost only the annual total revenue. However, the total revenue of Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao is catching up quickly.
According to the data, in 2023, Yanghe's total revenue will be 33.13 billion yuan, still maintaining the third largest in the industry. At the same time, Shanxi Fenjiu's annual revenue was 31.93 billion yuan, and Luzhou Laojiao's annual revenue was 30.23 billion yuan. In this way, among the top 5 companies in the industry, 3 are among the 30 billion camp at the same time.
In other words, starting from 2024, the revenue competition of Yanghe, Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao has basically stood on the same starting line.
(Data source: financial reports of listed companies, the same below)
This is from a static point of view, though; If you look at the year-on-year growth rate of annual revenue, Yanghe shares have actually lagged behind Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao in the past five years.
According to the financial report data, from 2019 to 2023, the annual revenue growth rate of Yanghe shares is: -4.28%, -8.76%, 20.14%, 18.76%, and 10.14%. In the same period, the revenue growth rate of Shanxi Fenjiu was: 25.92%, 17.63%, 42.75%, 31.26% and 21.8%, which can be described as a comprehensive crushing of Yanghe shares.
At the same time, the annual revenue growth rate of Luzhou Laojiao is: 21.15%, 5.28%, 23.96%, 21.71%, and 20.34%, which also surpasses Yanghe.
Affected by the epidemic, in 2019 and 2020, Yanghe's revenue declined sharply, with negative growth for two consecutive years; However, Shanxi Fenjiu still maintained double-digit growth; Luzhou Laojiao's revenue in 2020 will decline sharply, but the growth rate is still positive, with a year-on-year increase of 5.28%.
In 2021, the growth rate of these three leading liquors will recover quickly, and then decline simultaneously. Even so, the annual growth rate of Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao still exceeds that of Yanghe shares every year.
According to the analysis of industry insiders, if the current growth rate is followed, then the total revenue of Shanxi Fenjiu will surpass Yanghe shares in 2024, and at that time, Yanghe will probably lose the third place in the industry that it has maintained for many years.
2. The net profit growth rate of Yanghe has been less than 10% for 4 years, and it has been crushed by Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao for 5 consecutive years
According to the habits of the liquor industry, the total annual revenue is always used as the main criterion to evaluate the industry ranking of a company. However, for liquor investors, revenue is important, and profit is also indispensable. After all, for traditional production enterprises such as liquor, the profit is not satisfactory, that is, it only makes money and does not make money.
According to the financial report data, from 2019 to 2020, the annual total profit of Yanghe Co., Ltd. ranked first among the three competing products, which were 7.383 billion yuan and 7.482 billion yuan respectively.
In 2021, Luzhou Laojiao's annual net profit was 7.956 billion yuan, surpassing Yanghe's 448 million yuan, and since then, it has surpassed the other party for two consecutive years, and the total profit in 2023 has exceeded its 3.23 billion yuan.
Previously, the net profit had been lagging behind that of Yanghe's Shanxi Fenjiu, with a net profit of 10.44 billion yuan in 2023, exceeding Yanghe's 420 million yuan.
In other words, by the end of 2023, the net profit of Yanghe shares has been left behind by Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu.
If analyzed from a dynamic point of view, in fact, as early as 2019, the year-on-year growth rate of net profit of Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu was much higher than that of Yanghe shares, and it has maintained this trend for 5 consecutive years.
From 2019 to 2023, the net profit growth rate of Yanghe shares will be: -9.02%, 1.35%, 0.34%, 24.91%, and 6.8% respectively. Judging from the data, the growth rate is negative in 1 year, less than 1% in 1 year, less than 10% in 2 years, and only in 2022 the growth rate will reach double digits. Therefore, from the perspective of net profit growth, Yanghe shares have been very unsatisfactory in the past five years.
Insiders said frankly that in the past five years, compared with the two main competitors, Yanghe shares not only have average revenue growth, but also net profit growth is more worrisome, and Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao are simply not in the same order of magnitude.
3. In the past 5 years, Yanghe's net profit margin has remained at about 30%, and has been surpassed by Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu
Among the top 5 liquor companies, except for Kweichow Moutai, the gross profit margin of Luzhou Laojiao has been higher than that of the other 4. This point can be seen very clearly in the financial report data of the three competing products. From 2019 to 2023, the gross profit margins of Yanghe and Shanxi Fenjiu have not been much different, hovering around 75%.
From the perspective of profitability indicators, compared with the relatively solidified gross profit margin, the net profit margin indicators of these three competing products have changed greater.
The financial report shows that from 2019 to 2023, the net profit margin of Yanghe shares has been maintained at about 30%, and the net profit margin of Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao has increased for 4 consecutive years.
In 2019, Shanxi Fenjiu's net profit margin was only 17.79%, far lower than that of Yanghe. However, after 4 consecutive years of growth, in 2023, the company's net profit margin will reach 32.76%, surpassing Yanghe shares by 2.51 percentage points.
As for the net profit margin of Luzhou Laojiao, in addition to being slightly lower than Yanghe shares in 2019, it has begun to surpass the other party since 2020, and has maintained an overwhelming advantage in the following three years, and in 2022 and 2023, it has exceeded Yanghe shares by 10 percentage points for two consecutive years.
In addition, from the changes in the sales rates of the three competing companies, we can also get a glimpse of the leopard, revealing the gross profit margin and net profit margin of Yanghe shares in the past five years.
According to the financial report data, in 2019, the sales expenses of Yanghe shares accounted for the lowest proportion, only 11.64%; In the same period, Shanxi Fenjiu was 21.39% and Luzhou Laojiao was 26.47%. Since then, the data of Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao have decreased year by year, while Yanghe shares have gone the opposite way.
In 2023, the sales rate of Yanghe shares will be 16.26%, which in turn is higher than the 10.37% of Shanxi Fenjiu and the 13.15% of Luzhou Laojiao.
4. The total market value was overtaken by Gujinggong, and the status of Yanghe shares liquor was suspended?
In fact, as a listed company, investors have long made their own choices about the top 5 liquor companies.
According to the data, as of the end of 2023, the total market value of the TOP5 listed A-share liquor companies is: Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe shares. Among them, Yanghe shares are 165.5 billion yuan, Luzhou Laojiao is 264.1 billion yuan, and Shanxi Fenjiu is 281.5 billion yuan.
Among the TOP5 liquor head companies, the total market value of Yanghe shares has fallen to the bottom, and it has opened a large grade with two competing companies, with a difference of nearly 100 billion yuan.
(Data source: Oriental Fortune)
From the perspective of market value growth, from 2019 to 2023, Shanxi Fenjiu will be unbeatable, with a market value increase of 581.83%; Luzhou Laojiao and Kweichow Moutai are also above 200%; Wuliangye increased by 114.9%; Yanghe shares are only 13.87%.
The 5-year cycle basically reflects the investment attitude of fund-based institutional investors towards a listed company. Obviously, the market has made a judgment on the value of the leading A-share liquor companies.
Surprisingly, as of the close of trading on May 8, 2024, the total market value of Yanghe shares is 144.5 billion yuan, and the total market value of Gujing Gongjiu is 146.7 billion yuan.
Industry insiders said frankly that if this trend continues, the status of the third liquor in Yanghe shares will really hang!