Source: On Dao Investment
A few days ago, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued a blockbuster document, "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Supply of Residential Land in 2024", which requires:
Cities with a de-migration period of more than 36 months must suspend the supply of new land, and then focus on revitalizing the stock until the stock is reduced to less than 36 months;
Cities with a de-employment period of 18-36 months should control the rhythm of land supply, and decide how much new land supply will be added according to the principle of how much new land should be revitalized and how much new supply will be added according to the construction area completed and recycled.
Notice of the General Office of the Ministry of Natural Resources on Doing a Good Job in the Supply of Residential Land in 2024The departments in charge of natural resources of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, and the Bureau of Natural Resources of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps: In order to adapt to the new situation of major changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market, support the revitalization of the stock of land, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, the relevant work on the supply of residential land in 2024 is hereby notified as follows: 1. Do a good job of connecting the annual residential land supply plan with the annual housing development plan Based on local economic and social development, actual market demand, resources, environment, population and other constraints, all localities should determine housing by people and land by housing, and coordinate the supply of residential land with "market + security". The municipal and county departments in charge of natural resources shall, under the leadership of the party committee and government at the same level, actively cooperate with the preparation and implementation of the annual plan for housing development, and prepare the 2024 annual residential land supply plan (hereinafter referred to as the land supply plan) according to the housing construction needs determined in the annual plan for housing development. 2. Reasonably control the supply of new commercial residential land All localities should optimize the scale, layout and structure of commercial office land and residential land in a timely manner according to market demand, and improve the residential land supply adjustment mechanism corresponding to the cycle of commercial housing de-conversion and residential land stock. If the de-conversion period of commercial housing exceeds 36 months, the transfer of new commercial residential land shall be suspended, and at the same time, great efforts should be made to revitalize the stock until the de-conversion period of commercial housing falls below 36 months; Cities with a period of 18 months (exclusive) to 36 months for the decommissioning of commercial residential buildings shall, in accordance with the principle of "how much to revitalize, how much to supply", dynamically determine the upper limit of the area of newly transferred commercial residential land according to the area of existing commercial residential land (including completion and resumption) that will be revitalized in the current year. The data on the de-commercialization cycle of commercial housing and the revitalization of the stock of commercial residential land in various regions are dynamically updated on a quarterly basis. 3. Continue to vigorously support the supply of land for affordable housing All localities should give priority to the land supply plan according to the affordable housing construction plan, and should ensure that everything is guaranteed. It is necessary to take multiple measures at the same time to make overall plans to revitalize all kinds of stock land for the construction of affordable housing. For the residential land involved in the project included in the urban village reconstruction plan, which is really used for the construction of resettlement housing, priority should be given to ensuring land supply; If it is transferred in a market-oriented manner for the construction of saleable commercial housing, it shall be regulated and controlled in accordance with the requirements of this notice. Fourth, strictly implement the relevant requirements for the resumption of residential land All localities should rely on the dynamic monitoring and supervision system of the land market, grasp the base number of residential land that has not started construction for more than two years after the deadline, continue to update it dynamically, formulate a type-by-type and step-by-step disposal plan and organize its implementation, establish a ledger, and implement sales management. For idle residential land that has not started construction for more than two years within the time limit, it should be recovered in accordance with the law. Fifth, layer by layer compaction responsibility Municipal and county departments in charge of natural resources shall strictly implement the main responsibility for the supply of residential land, strengthen organizational leadership and departmental coordination, scientifically prepare land supply plans, implement the requirements for the regulation and control of residential land supply, do a good job in land purchase qualifications and capital supervision in accordance with laws and regulations, and actively cooperate with relevant departments to prevent financing platform companies from taking land in violation of regulations and prevent hidden debt risks from the government. Provincial-level departments in charge of natural resources should strengthen the guidance and supervision of the supply of residential land in cities above the prefecture level, the location of prefecture-state leagues and key counties (cities), and take effective measures to supervise the implementation of residential land supply requirements. It is necessary to rely on the local online trading platform and the dynamic monitoring and supervision system of the land market to strictly control the supply of urban commercial residential land with a de-conversion cycle of more than 18 months, and curb the unreasonable growth of the stock of residential land; It is necessary to verify the implementation of the land supply plan and the adjustment mechanism for the supply of residential land in cities and counties on a quarterly basis, and report it in the province, and report the results to the ministry at the same time. The Ministry will continue to strengthen the monitoring and supervision of the residential land market, focusing on the pilot cities of the long-term real estate mechanism and 70 other large and medium-sized cities. The ministry will regularly report on the implementation of regulation and control policies in each province and send a copy to the provincial people's government. General Office of the Ministry of Natural Resources April 29, 2024 |
This notice was issued after the 430 General Assembly, aiming to cooperate with the spirit of the policy of "digesting the stock of real estate + optimizing incremental housing" of the conference.
Which cities will be affected by this notice to continue to transfer land transfer fees? Let's take a look at the following analysis:
There are 41 cities in the country with a destocking cycle of more than 36 months:
Since the reform of the fiscal tax system in 1994, local fiscal revenue has been highly dependent on land transfer revenue and real estate-related taxes and fees, commonly known as the "land finance" model, that is, raising funds through the sale of land, the use of land as collateral and borrowing, and the use of land transfer money as a guarantee and source of debt repayment.
This model not only provides an important source of funding for urban infrastructure construction, but also further promotes urban economic growth and the improvement of residents' quality of life through infrastructure improvement and investment.
However, behind the myth of economic growth, the land finance model has also continuously raised the risk of the real estate market and the risk of local debt, and it is even more unsustainable now.
After this notice, local governments not only cut off the largest source of fiscal revenue for local governments (especially in the western region where industries are underdeveloped), but also blocked the path of left-handed to right-handed through local financing platforms.
So what can be done to improve local fiscal revenue in the future?
Personally, I think there are the following ways:
- Revitalization of existing assets. After so many years of investment and construction, local governments have formed a large number of assets, and if they can be effectively revitalized, they can be realized through public REITs, PPP franchises and other tools.
- Shift to equity finance. Promote the market-oriented transformation of state-owned enterprises, cultivate local state-owned enterprises to achieve IPO listing, and increase investment and mergers and acquisitions. Increase the investment of government guidance funds, such as in the new quality of productivity, new manufacturing, high technology and other aspects, to achieve investment value-added.
3. Expand tax sources. First, it is not ruled out that the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee in July this year will promote the reform of the fiscal and taxation systems between the central and local governments and increase the proportion of local sharing. The second is to increase tax sources on the existing basis, such as the implementation of real estate tax.
4. Increase the development and utilization of local natural resources, such as mineral resources, cultural and tourism resources, etc.