Will Japan become extinct in 700 years?
This is not speculation, but the latest research results of Japanese professors in May 2024.
According to the "Children's Population Clock" calculated by Professor Yoshida of Tohoku University in Japan, on January 5, 2720, only the last child under the age of 15 will be left in Japan, and Japan will also become the first country in the world to disappear due to a declining birthrate.
To put it more scrutinizingly, this date is 101 years earlier than the 2023 forecast and 1427 years earlier than the 2012 forecast......
Is this alarmist, and will Japan really become extinct in 700 years due to a declining birthrate?
Japan's Population "Countdown"
Japan has the world's most aging population.
According to 2023 data, Japan has a population of 124 million, with 20.05 million people over the age of 75, accounting for 16.1% of the total population, and 12.59 million people over the age of 80.
The three years from 1947 to 1949 were the peak of the first generation of births in Japan, and in 2025, this group will also be 75 years old.
In other words, the proportion of people over 75 years old in Japan will soar to 21% in 2025!
From 1971 to 1974, Japan was the second birthbox, and by 2040, these people will also be old!
It is estimated that in 2040, the number of people over 65 years old in Japan will reach 39.58 million, accounting for 34.8% of the total population of Japan, which is equivalent to one in every three elderly people!
The flip side of the aging problem is the declining birthrate.
The number of children in Japan has been declining for 43 consecutive years, starting in 1982.
According to data released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare on February 27, the number of newborns in Japan will only be 758631 in 2023, a record low, which is also the eighth consecutive year that the number of newborns in Japan has decreased.
But in 2023, there will be 1.59 million deaths in Japan! In other words, Japan's population decreased by 831,800 last year!
Japan's birth rate continues to decline, and as a result, the number of children under the age of 15 in Japan has plummeted.
In 2023, the number of children under the age of 15 in Japan will be 14.01 million, accounting for only 11.3% of the total population, the lowest level on record, and the proportion of children in the total population is only higher than that of South Korea.
According to statistics, the total fertility rate should be maintained at about 2.07 to maintain the basic operation of society, while the current total fertility rate in Japan is only about 1.26......
Based on Japan's current birth rate and death rate, it is theoretically possible that Japan will disappear completely one day in the future.
Japanese society is well aware of this from top to bottom, but it is difficult to reverse this trend.
Hiroshi Yoshida
Hiroshi Yoshida, a professor of aging economics at Tohoku University in Japan, calculated the "children's population clock" in order to "wake up" the public, predicting when Japan will have only the last child under the age of 15.
In 2012, Professor Yoshida predicted that this time would be 4147;
In 2023, it is October 27, 2821;
According to the latest 2024 "Children's Population Clock" in Japan, this time has been advanced to January 5, 2720.
According to this prediction, Japan will be on the verge of "extinction" after 696.
Professor Yoshida warned, "Japan could become the first country to become extinct due to a declining birthrate. ”
Now that the exact date of "extinction" has been calculated, is Japanese society capable of reversing this "future"?
The answer is very realistic, and there is no solution to the current trend of Japan's aging population and declining birthrate.
There is no solution to the problem of Japan's declining birthrate
Why are Japanese people reluctant to have children?
This is an extremely complex social issue, but the root cause is one word, "money".
The two "baby booms" in Japan's history were the late 40s and 70s of the last century, and these two periods happened to be the period of rapid economic development in Japan.
There are three unfilial pieties, and no queen is great.
In the traditional Japanese view, marriage and having children are very important.
Until the 1960s, the marriage rate of Japanese people was as high as 70%, and at that time, it was quite humiliating for young people of school age not to get married.
At that time, young Japanese people were keen to get married and have children, because the economic conditions allowed and there were no worries, and the man's salary alone was enough to buy a house, buy a car, and afford the expenses of the whole family.
But by the 90s, when the bubble in the Japanese economy was punctured, everything changed.
Although Japan is still a developed country and its per capita income is still very high, its economy has almost fallen into stagnation for more than 30 years, and the wages of Japan's working class have not increased for decades.
This has created an "awkward" reality in Japanese society: the younger generation works hard, but the salary is similar to that of their parents a few decades ago.
However, the level of social consumption in Japan is really rising, which makes the cost of marriage and childcare rising for Japanese people.
The huge economic pressure has made young Japanese people full of fear of getting married and having children.
On the other hand, the social atmosphere in Japan has further catalyzed this ethos.
First of all, the Japanese workplace is repressive, and there is naked sexism.
Male income alone can now barely support the family, and there is no spare time to raise children;
Japanese women suffer invisible discrimination in the workplace, and once they get married and have children, they default to "voluntary resignation".
Although Japan has been emphasizing equality between men and women in the workplace in recent years, gender discrimination is deeply rooted and difficult to return.
As a result, late marriage and non-marriage are prevalent in Japan.
Although the Japanese government has tried its best to increase the fertility rate, such as real money birth subsidies, it has had little effect.
In addition, the older generation in Japan does not have the habit of helping with children, so young parents can only raise children......
Due to various practical factors, the younger generation in Japan is becoming less and less willing to have children.
Revelation to the Continent
Don't think that Japan's aging population and declining birthrate have nothing to do with the mainland.
In fact, Japan's population issue is very valuable for us.
In 2023, the population of the mainland will decrease by 2.08 million compared with last year!
According to the statistics of the 2023 World Population Data Sheet, the total fertility rate of the mainland is only 1.1, which is lower than Japan's 1.3!
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2023, there will be 297 million people over the age of 60 in the mainland, accounting for 21.1% of the national population, and 15.4% of the elderly over the age of 65.
Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2023
However, in 2023, the birth population in the country will only be 9.02 million, and the birth rate in Jiangsu, Hubei, Liaoning and other provinces is even lower than that of Japan.
Growing old before getting rich is not groundless.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Huatong Database
Japan is facing a serious aging population and a declining birthrate, which deserves our vigilance.
What do you think about this? Welcome to leave a message to discuss.
Reference Sources:
[1] CCTV "Birth Rate of Population in 31 Provinces: 9 Provinces Exceed 8‰, and Natural Population Growth Rate of 20 Provinces is Negative" 2023.11.20
[2] Observer.com, "Expert: Japan may only be left with one child after nearly 700 years", 2024.05.06
However, in order to improve the readability of the article, there may be polishing of the details, please read sensibly, for reference only!
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