China Fund News reporter Zhang Yanbei
On the first trading day after the holiday, A-shares ushered in a "good start" in May.
On May 6, the three major indexes opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.16%, hitting a new high for the year. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the fourth consecutive trading day, and the net inflow of northbound funds exceeded 9 billion yuan.
After the market, the reporter interviewed Bosera, Cathay Pacific, Chuangjin Hexin, Cinda Australasia, Everbright Prudential, Morgan Stanley and other fund companies and related people, and they believed that the market rise was mainly driven by two major factors at home and abroad.
Looking ahead, the interviewed institutions and individuals believe that the short-term market volatility is basically over, and it is expected to continue to recover, focusing on high dividend performance and growth stock rebound opportunities.
Favorable factors at home and abroad helped the market rise
According to the industry, two major positive factors have driven the market up: the U.S. non-farm payrolls data is less than expected to ignite interest rate cut expectations, and overseas liquidity is loose to attract foreign capital inflows;
Cinda Australasia Fund said that the market continued its upward trend before the holiday today, mainly affected by two positive factors during the May Day period. First, the latest non-farm payrolls data in the United States fell short of expectations, which rekindled the expectation of interest rate cuts. The marginal easing of overseas liquidity has allowed foreign capital to continue the inflow trend.
Second, the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee was held in July, and the policy is expected to continue to increase. On April 30, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and work, and decided to convene the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in July. On the one hand, the meeting mentioned the promotion of economic system reform and the development of venture capital investment, which means that the follow-up relevant policy support is expected to follow up; on the other hand, it mentioned the progress of fiscal investment, and the early issuance and use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, which means that the relevant special bonds are expected to speed up in the second quarter.
Hu Zhibai, a financial real estate researcher at Chuangjin Hexin Fund, also said that the Politburo meeting made new arrangements in many aspects and released positive signals from the economy and policies. In addition, the Third Plenary Session of the previous Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has put forward far-reaching reform tasks related to the overall situation and far-reaching impact, and the time point of convening is clear, which means that the central government has formed a consensus on the thinking and direction of the next reform, and the market will gradually form new expectations for this, which may be conducive to enhancing market risk appetite. According to the analysis of Everbright Prudential Fund, the Shanghai Composite Index continued to hit a new high, and the direct driving force came from the substantial inflow of foreign capital. Recently, foreign investment banks upgraded the rating of China's stock market and gave overweight recommendations, and foreign capital flowed into Hong Kong stocks during the May Day holiday, which continued today. The reason behind it, it is not difficult to find that the economic data is stabilizing, the mainland's real GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 5.3%, which continued to recover, and the PMI was also repaired to more than 50, and the mainland's economic growth data was better than expected. The market is expected to continue to repair and be strategically bullish in May
The industry said that the economy continues to recover, superimposed by the significant inflow of foreign capital, and the overall valuation of the current market is still in a low range, and the market is expected to continue to repair.
Looking ahead, Cinda Australasia Fund judged that there was a sharp inflow of northbound funds at the end of April, and China's stock market is returning to the vision of foreign capital. In the short and medium term, the capital may benefit from the expected improvement of interest rate cuts and continue to be easing, and the domestic economy is also expected to benefit from the policy increase and continue to recover. Bosera Fund said that under the condition that the economy is still resilient and inflation is sticky, there is still uncertainty about when the Fed will start cutting interest rates. The marginal easing of overseas liquidity is likely to have an impact on the trend of A-shares, but it will still be more of an emotional disturbance. At present, the tone of domestic policies to continue to maintain steady growth remains unchanged, and the macro environment faced by A-shares is still relatively friendly. The risk of market downside in the short term is relatively small, and there is a high probability that there will be a volatile trend in the future, and there is still no shortage of structural opportunities. Everbright Prudential Fund is optimistic about the equity market. In terms of risk assets, the holiday is dominated by positive factors at home and abroad, corresponding to positive changes in the numerator and denominator. The PMI remained on the boom and bust line. The Politburo meeting was positive for the guidance for the second quarter, and the early deployment will further produce substantive results, while further promoting policies such as currency and real estate.
In addition, the quarterly report of listed companies shows that indicators such as revenue, ROE, and asset growth are still in a downward trend, but the growth rate of net profit shows signs of stabilization. At the same time, the net profit growth rate after excluding petroleum and petrochemical, financial real estate, and power equipment has returned to positive. This phenomenon further indicates that the repair trend of total unevenness and structural differentiation is further clarifying.
Hu added that the current macroeconomic recovery is steady, and the April PMI data is better than market expectations. Overseas funds' preference for Hong Kong stocks and A-shares has gradually increased, which will help the market's valuation repair. U.S. economic data showed pressure, and the pressure of RMB depreciation eased, which is conducive to the performance of China's equity assets. With the completion of the disclosure of the first quarterly report, the short-term market has entered the performance window period, and the market will enter the game stage of expectations. In the long run, Guotai Fund said that more and more funds are beginning to recognize that Chinese assets have passed the left inflection point of the U-shaped bottom. Since the beginning of the year, there have been marginal improvements in the economy, policy, and geography, gradually breaking the vicious circle of "expectation-reality" when the market fell in the early stage. Guotai Fund expects that with the support of positive internal and external factors, the short-term market volatility will basically end, and the market will regain strength. Focusing on high-dividend and growth stocks and talking about subdivided investment opportunities, Bosera Fund suggests that the current congestion in the direction of high dividends has declined, and the cost-effectiveness of allocation has improved, which may be appropriately concerned. Everbright Prudential Fund believes that the investment prospects in the subdivided structure in terms of improved demand, cost decline, exports, and travel chain may be worth looking forward to. Cathay Fund is bullish on the rebound of growth stocks in the short term, including AI and core asset leaders. AI focuses on overseas industries and domestic policy catalysts, and at the same time, the recent transaction congestion has been at a low level, and the core asset leader is the logic of low long Chinese asset beta. In addition, we will continue to pay attention to and hold selected stocks for export to sea for a long time. In the long run, Su Jianxiao of Morgan Stanley Fund Research Management Department is still optimistic about the trend of gold, because the trend of precious metals remains unchanged before the Fed cuts interest rates, and the current wide range of precious metals has also been repeatedly affected by the expectation of interest rate cuts. Short-term data show that the U.S. employment and service sectors continue to be weak, and interest rate cuts may still be a trend. Before the first interest rate cut landed, gold is expected to continue to be strong, and short-term shocks are bulls profiting. According to historical performance, after the first interest rate cut landed, gold is likely to hit a new high. Editor: Captain
Review: Xu Wen