▎In October 2023, leaders of the intelligence agencies of the Five Eyes alliance met at Stanford University. Leaders from the US Federal Bureau of Investigation, British MI5, New Zealand Security Intelligence, Canadian Security Intelligence and Australian Security Intelligence met together.
Editor's note
The South Pacific has been stormy lately. In April, news broke that Japan had officially announced its membership in the second pillar of the AUKUS trilateral military alliance, and at the end of April, the South Pacific island nation of the Solomon Islands held a general election, with its opposition leader openly announcing that he would "restore diplomatic relations with Taiwan" if he wins.
Why is the South Pacific region so important? How should we view the repeated vacillation of island countries? How should China's cooperation in the South Pacific island countries be carried out? "Phoenix Reference" interviewed Dr. Chen Xin, a senior visiting researcher at Peking University's Sino-Foreign People-to-People Exchange Research Base and a researcher at the New Zealand Institute of Asian Studies at the University of Auckland, to try to answer the above questions.
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1. The South Pacific region has become a hot spot in the game of great powers, mainly because the topic of global governance has received attention in recent years. Climate change, great power competition, and the abundant natural resources and superior geographical location of island countries have also made countries pay more and more attention to the South Pacific. Some island countries have also reaped many development opportunities thanks to competitive aid.
2. For the South Pacific region, people's livelihood and economic development are the most important, and the consideration of both is definitely greater than the security consideration. At the same time, island countries tend to make pragmatic choices, and even if their security choices go back and forth, they do not affect their economic cooperation.
3. As a member of the Five Eyes Alliance, New Zealand has a relatively moderate attitude towards China because it is pragmatic in its consideration of China. Although New Zealand's foreign minister said late last year that he would bring New Zealand closer to other intelligence partners in the Five Eyes alliance, this is not a sign of a change in New Zealand's attitude towards China. Australia, on the other hand, is more inclined to become a middle power in the region, so it will be more assertive, but it will not stop its economic and trade relations with China. The results of cooperation between the Aukus countries should also be limited, and will not block Sino-Australian exchanges.
4. Dr. Chen Xin believes that the hidden danger of the current cooperation between China and the South Pacific region mainly lies in the strangeness of the two sides, and China can promote communication and exchanges between the two sides by carrying out more down-to-earth project cooperation and more people-to-people exchanges.
Dialogue丨Phoenix.com International Chief Writer Qu Gongze
Editor丨Yang Dingge
Why should you care about the South Pacific?
In recent years, the South Pacific region has gradually become the front line of the great power game. In 2022, the Biden administration announced the Pacific Partnership Strategy, and in September 2023, U.S. President Joe Biden held the second U.S.-Pacific Islands Summit at the White House in a high-profile manner to seek to strengthen its influence in the South Pacific region. At the same time, Japan has joined the second pillar of AUKUS, and India, South Korea and other countries have also held summits with South Pacific island countries. Why do you think the South Pacific region is getting so much attention?
Chen Xin: I think the main reason for the recent attention is that countries are now paying attention to global governance, especially ocean governance, and climate change. When it comes to these issues, the importance of these island nations comes out because they are the ones most affected by climate change.
At the same time, the geographical location of the South Pacific island countries is also important. It is the crossroads of the Pacific Ocean, north, south, east and west, and with the development of trade around the world, maritime traffic is also valued. Take China as an example, China's foreign trade is increasing, so it is also paying more and more attention to the safety of maritime traffic. Then there is the huge potential of marine resources. For example, marine energy, and the laying of submarine cables, which we are very concerned about now. In addition, the safety of the Chinese people is also a point of concern for China.
As more and more of these points are important, coupled with the relationship of strategic competition, other countries have begun to invest in this area, such as the United States, but to be honest, the United States has paid too much attention, and the countries in the South Pacific are so small that I think the results of their actions are not so significant. The European Union, Japan and India have also stepped up their investments in the region.
▎Delegates talk at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) on November 13, 2021. Source: Reuters
Phoenix Reference: So in the context of the great power game, what role do the countries in the South Pacific play in this now, and how do they position themselves?
Chen Xin: In the context of the increased investment of major countries, countries have formed a situation of competitive assistance in the South Pacific, which has also given Pacific island countries more opportunities to speak and have the right to speak, and they have taken advantage of this pattern to form regional organizations, such as the Pacific Island Countries Development Forum, and at the same time actively carry out collective diplomacy and actively speak out at the United Nations.
But in fact, there are also many problems within the Pacific island countries. The island nation is divided into three regions: Micronesia, Polynesia and Melanesia, and there are many problems within the region, and even within the island country. For example, in the recent general election in the Solomon Islands, there is fierce competition between the Chinese and opposition factions, but behind the route competition is actually a power struggle, which is also related to the culture and ethnic groups within the island nation.
However, despite all the internal problems, in general, I personally believe that island countries are more collectively connected in the region as a whole, and their needs are more valued in international organizations. However, they still have a lot to develop, such as education, management ability, narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor, and so on.
People's livelihood and economy, the key to cooperation with island countries
Reference: I just talked about a lot of assistance for the South Pacific region. However, in addition to economic and trade support, more and more security disputes have also entered the South Pacific. What do you think are most important to countries in the South Pacific, and how would you rank the value of these areas?
Chen Xin: People's livelihood must come first. Island countries need help, especially in times of natural and man-made disasters, and it is easy to run out of supplies. Not long ago, the volcano in Tonga erupted, and it was China that sent supplies. Australia often does something similar. In addition, the inequality between the rich and the poor is also a characteristic of this region, so I personally think that it may be that economic assistance is more important.
The need for assistance by the countries of the South Pacific definitely outweighs their security considerations. Security is a matter of greater concern to countries outside the region. But as far as the local people are concerned, they will only see the houses that you helped build and the businesses that you helped to start in the local area. They only see tangible help.
▎ Tonga volcanic eruption. Source: Reuters
But putting the need for aid first means that their political pivot is much easier, and there may even be a "sharp turn". For example, in the Solomon Islands election, the opposition candidate said that he would abolish the security treaty with China if elected. This is less than two years after the signing of the security cooperation agreement between China and China. In addition, there is a lot of swing in the countries of the South Pacific. How do you see the continuity of their policies, and how China can work more effectively with South Pacific countries in the future?
Chen Xin: The people of island countries are indeed more practical, and for them, economic interests come first. In this regard, the assistance that China can provide is actually incomparable to that of the United States, and even Australia and New Zealand, which are "at their doorstep". Moreover, China has made it clear at the beginning of its assistance that it will not compete exclusively with these countries.
As for the political or security game, I can provide a perspective. I think that the so-called security agreement is often back and forth, and it is likely to be lifted today and reinstated tomorrow, and some politicians in the island countries will talk about security, so changes are very common. It's just that China may need to pay a little more attention to big investments in the future.
▎In September 2019, China established diplomatic relations with the Solomon Islands.
It is even said that China can join Australia, New Zealand, or EU companies in specific projects with island countries to form a tripartite cooperation mechanism to balance economic benefits and political risks to the greatest extent. In terms of effective cooperation, I think China and the South Pacific region are still relatively new to each other, and both sides need to understand each other more concretely. For example, my colleagues in New Zealand don't know what Ant Financial is, and they don't know anything about the issues discussed in China. Many New Zealand state media also thought that China's implementation of the digital yuan was a challenge to the dollar.
A similar situation exists in China. One time a Chinese scholar came to our school to give a lecture, but he was not giving an example of China, but talking about the West, which I don't think shows China. There are many more cases like this, and every time I see it, I want to say that there is still a long way to go to establish understanding.
Hovering between China and the United States, who will the South Pacific choose?
Phoenix: In the Five Eyes Alliance, New Zealand is often seen as a country with a moderate attitude towards China. But recently, some signs of a change in attitude have also been captured by the media. In December 2023, New Zealand's foreign minister, Winston Peters, said he would bring New Zealand closer to intelligence partners such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia. What are the reasons for New Zealand's moderate attitude towards China in the Five Eyes Alliance, and will New Zealand's attitude towards China change?
Chen Xin: New Zealand has a population of just over 5 million, so there is not much that can be done. The number of New Zealand troops is also very small, so many military operations with allies, it cannot be deeply involved.
At the same time, New Zealand is a country that is very dependent on exports, and its main exports, such as agricultural products and livestock products, are protected in many Western countries. It is not so easy for New Zealand and Japan, or even the United Kingdom, to negotiate a trade deal. China and New Zealand have signed free trade agreements, and New Zealand is one of the few Western countries to sign such agreements with China. Therefore, China is very important for New Zealand, which has many small and medium-sized enterprises.
Therefore, New Zealand's attitude towards China is also very serious and pragmatic. In fact, all circles in New Zealand are looking forward to and optimistic about cooperation with China.
As for some of the remarks made by the New Zealand Foreign Minister, to some extent, it was only due to the needs of the domestic political situation and partisan struggle, and he himself is the leader of a partner party in the ruling coalition, and he will say something to show that he has a different attitude from the previous government. But neither the New Zealand media nor the New Zealand Parliament reacted to it. So I don't think there's going to be any fundamental change in New Zealand's attitude right now.
Phoenix Reference: Looking back at the development of China's diplomacy, it is not uncommon for the politics to be cold and the economy to be hot. For example, Australia, New Zealand's neighbor, although it also has close economic and trade ties with China, has close cooperation in the field of security with the United States, Japan, and even India. Since the second half of last year, China-Australia relations have been warming, and on the other hand, AUKUS and other Australian-related military multilateral alliances related to China are also making frequent moves. How do you think Australia will maintain a balance between China and the United States in the future?
Chen Xin: Compared with New Zealand's pragmatism, I personally think that Australia would like to take advantage of the opportunity of cooperation with the United States to become a middle power in the region. After all, Australia is much larger than New Zealand in terms of size and population, and in terms of aid to the South Pacific island countries, Australia actually has some political needs attached to it more than New Zealand.
But in fact, Australia will face a lot of problems in this regard, and Australia is very far from the United States geographically, and it is also very far from China, so it is difficult to have any substantive conflict. Even Indonesia, Australia's long-standing geopolitical rival, does not actually have any real conflict with Australia. Therefore, the cooperation between Australia and the United States and other countries on security is, I think, more of a "voice" on the global stage.
Therefore, Australia will not stop cooperating militarily with the United States, and the United States will certainly want Australia to join them in their ranks so that they can speak for it in the South Pacific. Frankly speaking, I don't think AUKUS can do a lot of things, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia are very far apart, and each of them is facing a lot of problems, and there are a lot of areas that AUKUS is trying to cover at the moment, and I think China is just one of them.
In terms of economy and trade, I believe that Australia will continue to cooperate with China in terms of economy and trade, and there are many places where China and Australia can cooperate, and there may be political resistance to reaching in-depth cooperation from the macro agreement, but there are many opportunities for specific things and specific projects.
▎In November 2023, Albanese received flowers from children after arriving in Shanghai, and Xiao Qian, the Chinese ambassador to Australia, waited to welcome him. Source: ABC News
Phoenix Reference: We know that Australia and New Zealand have converged with the United States in the past on China-related economic measures such as banning Huawei products. At present, the latest Tiktok stripping bill in the United States has caused public opinion in the United States to boil, do you think Australia will follow suit? Will these moves have a ripple effect in South Pacific countries?
Chen Xin: Personally, I think it's mainly a matter of domestic debate. Not long ago, for example, New Zealand had a similar approach, saying that China's actions involved the security of their online information. But the news coverage was over in a day or two.
I think we should care more about the digital economy than TikTok itself. In particular, the premise of developing the digital economy is to have digital information, and we don't know how to circulate with each other and what the relevant rules are. We need international cooperation and hard research. For example, New Zealand, Singapore, and Chile proposed a digital economy partnership agreement in 2020, and China and South Korea are actively joining.
In addition to the efforts of the national government, I think that companies in related industries will also participate in solving problems for the sake of economic interests, so I don't think the problem itself is a problem, and digital cooperation can be slowly developed.
▎In 2020, Singapore's Minister of Trade and Industry, Tan Chun Sing, New Zealand's Minister for Trade and Export Growth, David Parker, and Chile's Deputy Minister for Trade, Rodrigo Yanez, signed a joint statement in Singapore on the conclusion of negotiations on the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA). Source: Open Gov, Singapore
China's problems in the South Pacific and how to solve them
Phoenix Reference: As mentioned earlier, there is a lack of deep communication between China and South Pacific countries. We also know that there is a trend that many Chinese scholars are going to the United States and other Western countries to face some restrictions that they have never encountered before.
Chen Xin: I don't think at least New Zealand will not, New Zealand has always considered foreign students to be important. Although there seems to be a lot of anti-China sentiment in Australia, I don't seem to have heard of large-scale restrictions on students, and there may be restrictions on some subjects.
The situation in the United States should continue. But as long as China is still developing, and others need China to develop, these problems will disappear.
Phoenix Reference: What problems do you think China will face in its future exchanges with South Pacific island countries, and what should we pay attention to?
Chen Xin: China is now starting to say that the Belt and Road Initiative should be "small but beautiful", which is very good, China generally helps the local people to build infrastructure, but the infrastructure is frankly expensive and slow to return on for a long time, but the effect is also long-term. So I personally think that the term "small but beautiful" is very good, closer to people's hearts, and more down-to-earth. At the same time, it is also more suitable for the frequent change of governments in South Pacific countries.
In terms of specific foreign aid, I suggest that we look for local enterprises to carry out cooperation, and it is not necessary to go through special official projects, but can be enterprises from different countries with official support, such as the Cook Islands water supply project in China and New Zealand, which I think is very successful. We need to realize that although Australia is the main sponsor of the South Pacific island countries, its economy is also limited, and New Zealand's economy is even more limited, so there is a lot of room for China. Although the United States has begun to reopen many embassies and consulates in the South Pacific, I think his energy is limited after all.
▎Handover ceremony of China-aided Cook Islands water supply project. Source: China's Belt and Road official website
So from this point of view, China can actually be said to have an advantage in what the outside world calls the "game". At the same time, Chinese people talk about "thinking in the long run", and although China may invest more in the early stage, it will definitely improve bilateral relations in the long run. If China needs support, it can also seek assistance from countries such as the European Union, and I think the possibility of cooperation between the two sides is particularly high when it comes to concrete projects.
In addition, in order to develop relations between the two sides, I believe that it is necessary to carry out people-to-people exchanges and increase the channels of communication between the two sides. There are many Chinese communities in the South Pacific island countries, and some Chinese even have high positions in the local area, which can be exploited. Taking this as an opportunity to communicate with the locals and target some groups outside the government and government, such as the Maori community in New Zealand, will achieve good results.