Demystifying the Mystery of Casino Wins and Losses: The Unbeatable "Kelly Formula"
Since ancient times, casinos have been a paradise for adventurers, full of wealth, lust and passion. In this win-lose game, gamblers and casinos engage in an eternal battle. But why do the vast majority of gamblers end up not winning the casino? The answer lies in a mysterious formula – the "Kelly Formula".
So, what exactly is the "Kelly Formula"?
The "Kelly Formula" is a method used to quantify gambling investments, which was proposed by the American mathematician John Larry Kelly in the 50s of the 20th century. This formula aims to maximize the probability of long-term gambling wins by calculating the investor's optimal betting ratio. The formula is as follows:
f* = (bp - q) / b
where f* represents the optimal betting ratio, b represents the odds, p represents the probability of winning, and q represents the probability of losing.
Gamblers may wonder why they can't beat casinos with this formula, because casinos have long since applied the "Kelly Formula" to casino operations. By adjusting the game rules and odds, it is difficult for gamblers to make a profit in the long-term gambling process.
First of all, the rules of the game in casinos are often not in favor of gamblers. For example, in the American Roulette game, the house edge is about 5.26%, which means that every gambler has about a 5.26% probability of losing to the casino every time they bet. And with this slight advantage, the casino can make a steady profit in the long run.
Secondly, the casino adjusts the odds to make it difficult for gamblers to grasp the betting ratio. In many casino games, the odds are not set strictly according to probability. For example, in a blackjack game, if a gambler has two cards in his hand, the odds may be set at 3:2, but in reality, this odds do not fully reflect the probability of the gambler winning. In this way, it is difficult for gamblers to adjust their betting strategies according to the "Kelly Formula" in the actual gambling process.
In addition, the casino employs a series of psychological tactics to induce gamblers to deviate from the "Kelly formula". The casino environment is full of temptations and thrills, making it easy for gamblers to fall into emotional gambling situations. In such situations, gamblers often fail to use the "Kelly Formula" rationally, but instead bet on intuition and luck. This undoubtedly increases the probability of defeat for gamblers.
So, how exactly does the "Kelly Formula" work in casinos?
In the case of Roulette, let's say a gambler uses the "Kelly Formula" to place a bet, and he needs to constantly adjust the betting ratio based on the outcome of each roll. However, it is difficult for gamblers to do this in the actual gambling process. On the one hand, casino games are fast, gamblers do not have enough time to calculate, and on the other hand, the casino environment can easily make gamblers fall into emotions and forget or abandon the use of the "Kelly Formula".
To sum up, the reason why gamblers can't win in casinos is not just because they can't beat the "Kelly Formula", but because casinos have long applied the formula to their operations and made it difficult for gamblers to win through game rules, odds, and psychological tactics.
In the face of such a casino full of temptations and risks, what should gamblers do to achieve long-term profits? The answer is to accept the reality and treat gambling rationally.
First of all, gamblers need to recognize the advantages of the casino and find ways to reduce the frequency of gambling. This means that gamblers should try to avoid consecutive bets to reduce the probability of losing to the casino.
Second, gamblers need to stay calm and avoid getting emotional. In casinos, emotional bets often lead to failures. Therefore, gamblers should learn to control their emotions and respond sensibly to the temptation of the casino.
Finally, gamblers can try to look for some gambling strategies that have an edge. For example, research the loopholes of the casino and find the betting method that works for you. However, it is important to note that this type of strategy is often risky and gamblers need to be cautious.
A casino is not a place where gamblers can win easily. In the face of the temptation of casinos, gamblers need to stay sane, follow the "Kelly Formula", and strive to reduce the frequency of gambling in order to achieve profitability in the long-term gambling process. However, gambling itself is a game full of risks, and even if you master the "Kelly Formula", it is difficult to ensure absolute victory. Therefore, gamblers also need to keep in mind that only by treating gambling rationally can they win more respect and honor.