The May Day holiday is coming to an end, the pig market long and short game presents a trend of "one elimination and the other", the stage of negative sentiment prevails, and pig prices may fall into the cycle of "grinding the bottom"!
It is understood that in May, the arrival of the summer solar term, the temperature in the north and south is rising, the precipitation is increasing, and the consumer market is lacking further after the long holiday to boost the holiday factors, pork consumption returns to the off-season, the demand for residents to purchase pork is reduced, the lack of increment in household consumption, and the group consumption support is insufficient, the demand for catering and tourism industry has cooled significantly, the purchase and sale of downstream white strips are under pressure, the wholesale market may continue to shrink the volume and stabilize the price of the operation, the difficulty of new orders for slaughtering enterprises will increase, the operating rate will also weaken, and the average daily slaughter volume is at a low level!
On the supply side, in May, the slaughter of suitable weight pigs was relatively positive, in particular, the temperature rose, the residents' acceptance of fat pork deteriorated, the standard fertilizer price spread further narrowed, the breeding end of the pressure pen weight gain enthusiasm weakened, and the sentiment of selling pigs is increasing!
On the one hand, the pig in the early stage of the breeding end has entered the rhythm of slaughter, and the social aspect and the group's pig enterprises have warmed up to sell pigs;
On the other hand, the second fattening of large pigs in the herd increases, the risk of large fat pressure increases, and the breeding end of the large pig concentrated slaughter mentality or will become stronger!
Affected by the increase in the average weight of pigs slaughtered in stages, the pork production capacity has been further improved, and the lack of substantial increase in consumption, superimposed, the domestic frozen pork inventory level is high, the frozen product storage capacity rate remains high, and the slaughterhouse lacks the operation of segmentation and warehousing.
Of course, the pole must be reversed, after the pig price falls, the market is still hidden against the rebound support, in particular, the market bullish sentiment is strong, the second breeding has a dip to enter the operation, the breeding end also has the sentiment of the pig price reluctance to sell, in mid-May, the pig price or have the opportunity to build a bottom, the price will gradually enter the cyclical rebound of the market!
According to the analysis of institutional data, the slaughtering enterprises adjusted the price of pigs, it is expected that on May 6, the average price of three-yuan lean pigs outside the country was about 14.82 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg, and the domestic market showed a general downward trend, and the specific provincial and municipal markets are as follows:
List of live pig prices in the north and south provinces of the country on May 6: