Hot Spotlight //
1. Hong Kong stocks continued the momentum of a good start in May, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 1.48% at 18,475.92 points, recording nine consecutive gains, up 4.67% for the week, the Hang Seng Technology Index up 2.74%, up 6.80% for the week, and the state-owned enterprise index up 1.71% and up 4.43% for the week. Technology stocks led the gains, Bilibili-W rose nearly 7%, JD.com Group-SW, Kuaishou-W, Weibo-SW rose more than 5%, Baidu Group-SW, Alibaba-SW rose more than 4%. The new forces of car manufacturing rose, with Xpeng Motors-W rising nearly 5% and Li Auto-W rising more than 3%. Gogox surged by more than 90%, with a turnover of about HK$150 million. The trading volume of the market was HK$116.2 billion throughout the day.
2. The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 175,000 in April, with an expected increase of 243,000, and the previous value was revised upward from an increase of 303,000 to an increase of 315,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8% in March, the highest level since January 2022, in a surprise to market expectations. Wages also rose less than expected, rising 3.9% from a year earlier, compared with a 4.1% increase in March. Following the release of the weak April nonfarm payrolls report, traders brought forward their expectations for the Fed's first rate cut from November to September. Traders are now pricing in two 25bp rate cuts by the Fed in 2024, compared to one before the NFP.
3. At 17:27 on May 3, the Chang'e-6 probe was successfully launched by the Long March 5 Yao-8 carrier rocket from the Wenchang Space Launch Site in China, accurately entering the Earth-Moon transfer orbit, and the launch mission was a complete success. The Chang'e-6 probe started the world's first sample return journey on the far side of the Moon, and the pre-selected landing and sampling area is the South Pole-Aitken Basin on the far side of the Moon.
Global Markets //
1. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed up across the board, with the Dow up 1.18% at 38,675.68, the S&P 500 up 1.26% at 5,127.79, and the Nasdaq up 1.99% at 16,156.33. Amgen rose 11.84% and Apple rose 5.97%, leading the Dow. Wind US TAMAMA Technology Index rose 2.62%, Nvidia rose 3.46%, and Tesla rose 0.63%. Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with Dajian Yuncang up 7.41% and New Oriental up 4.73%. For the week, the Dow rose 1.14%, the S&P 500 rose 0.55%, and the NASDAQ rose 1.43%.
2. The three major European stock indexes closed up across the board, with the German DAX index up 0.54% at 17,993.69 points, down 0.92% for the week, the French CAC 40 index up 0.54% at 7,957.57 points, down 1.62% for the week, and the British FTSE 100 index up 0.51% at 8,213.49 points, up 0.90% for the week.
3. Most of the major stock indexes in the Asia-Pacific region closed higher, with the South Korean Composite Index falling 0.25% to 2,676.89 points, among the constituent stocks, Kia Motors fell more than 4%, Hyundai Motor fell more than 3%, and Pohang Steel rose more than 1%, Australia's S&P 200 Index rose 0.55% to 7,629.00 points, New Zealand's S&P 50 Index rose 0.54% to 11,938.08 points, and Japan's stock market was closed for holidays. India's SENSEX30 index fell 0.98% to 73,878.15 points, up 0.2% for the week. The FTSE Singapore Straits Index fell 0.12% to 3,292.93 points, up 0.39% for the week. The FTSE Malaysia Composite Index rose 0.59% to 1,589.59 points, up 0.92% for the week.
4. International precious metal futures closed mixed, COMEX gold futures closed up 0.02% at $2310.1 per ounce, down 1.58% for the week, and COMEX silver futures closed down 0.16% at $26.785 per ounce, down 1.71% for the week.
5. International oil prices fell across the board, with the U.S. oil June contract down 1.22% to $77.99 per barrel, down 6.99% for the week, and the July oil contract down 1.06% to $82.78 per barrel, down 6.16% for the week.
6. London base metals collectively closed up, LME copper rose 1.52% to $9,914 / ton, down 0.52% for the week; LME zinc rose 0.76% to $2,908 / ton, up 2.25% weekly; LME nickel rose 3.17% to $19,240 / ton, up 0.73% for the week; LME aluminum rose 0.91% to $2,551 / ton, down 0.72% for the week; LME tin futures rose 3.33% to $32,000 / ton, down 1.27% for the week; LME lead rose 1.77% to $2218.5 / ton, up 0.5% for the week.
7. The main contracts of agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) collectively closed higher, with soybean futures up 1.44% at 1216.25 cents / bushel, up 3.31% for the week, corn futures up 0.05% at 460 cents / bushel, up 2.22% for the week, and wheat futures up 3.14% at 623.25 cents / bushel, up 0.16% for the week.
8. European bond yields collectively closed down, with the British 10-year yield down 6.4 basis points at 4.223%, the French 10-year yield down 4.9 basis points at 2.974%, the German 10-year yield down 4.6 basis points at 2.495%, the Italian 10-year yield down 5.1 basis points at 3.812%, and the Spanish 10-year yield down 5 basis points at 3.265%.
9. U.S. Treasury yields closed down across the board, with the 2-year Treasury yield down 5.4 basis points at 4.829%, the 3-year Treasury yield down 6 basis points at 4.663%, the 5-year Treasury yield down 6.9 basis points at 4.508%, the 10-year Treasury yield down 6.6 basis points at 4.518%, and the 30-year Treasury yield down 6 basis points at 4.672%.
10. At the end of New York, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.28% to 105.0851, down 0.95% for the week. Most non-US currencies rose, with EUR/USD up 0.34% at 1.0763, up 0.65% for the week, GBP/USD up 0.08% at 1.2545, up 0.4% for the week, AUDUSD up 0.67% at 0.661, up 1.15% for the week, USDJPY down 0.47% at 152.9745, down 3.38% for the week, USDCAD up 0.08% at 1.3685, up 0.11% for the week, and USDCHF down 0.62% It was closed at 0.905, down 1.04% for the week, and the offshore yuan rose 144 basis points to 7.1916 against the dollar, up 772 basis points for the week.
Macro//
1. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a document saying that for a period of time, some officials and media in some countries have accused China of "overcapacity" of new energy products, paving the way for its unilateralism and the implementation of trade protection policies. In fact, no matter from the perspective of the international division of labor, global supply and demand, or market rules, the so-called "overcapacity" of China's new energy products is just a topic trap carefully concocted by some countries, trying to implement trade protection measures on this ground, and the result will not only not make their own profits, but will destroy the stability and smoothness of the global industrial and supply chains, damage the growth of the world economy and trade, and drag down the pace of green transformation of the global economy.
2. The Monetary Authority of Hong Kong announced that the countercyclical capital buffer ratio applicable to Hong Kong remains unchanged at 1%. The Commissioner for the Monetary Authority, Eddie Yue, said that quantitative indicators showed that the risk of overheating in Hong Kong's economy was under control. Under the framework, which includes a positive neutral countercyclical capital buffer effective from 1 April 2024, the countercyclical capital buffer ratio applicable in Hong Kong should be maintained at 1% when the level of systemic risk is not high or low.
3. Hong Kong, China's retail sales in March fell by 8.6% year-on-year, expected to fall by 3.6%, the previous value increased by 0.5%, and retail sales fell by 7.0% year-on-year, expected to increase by 0.9%, the previous value increased by 1.9%.
Domestic Stock Market //
1. Against the backdrop of the suspension of A-share funds and Hong Kong Stock Connect, the Hong Kong stock technology index soared by more than 4% on Thursday. In the lack of A-share funds, Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen funds of the May Day holiday, Hong Kong stocks do not rely on the sharp rise of A-share funds or means that foreign institutions and QDII funds are vigorously covering their positions, before the May Day holiday, many Hong Kong stock companies have institutions, overseas sovereign wealth funds increased their shareholdings.
2. The 2023 annual report and the first quarter report of 2024 of A-shares have both ended, and the annual reports of 7 listed companies including *ST Yuebo have been "difficult to deliver". At present, the annual reports of 28 listed companies such as ST Shimao and Meijim have been issued audit reports by audit institutions that cannot express opinions.
3. Combined with the statistics of the market value of the shares, Feng Liu, the star fund manager of Gao Yi Assets, still manages the private equity product with the highest market value - Gao Yi Lingshan No. 1 Yuanwang Fund, which held 14 stocks publicly at the end of the first quarter, with a total market value of 19.633 billion yuan. It is also the only product with a market value of more than 10 billion yuan among A-share private equity funds. Broken down to individual stocks, Feng Liu's shareholding in Hikvision alone has a market value of 13.218 billion yuan.
4. When the market rushed to 3100 points, the liquor and home appliance sectors took turns, and many funds with heavy positions in related sectors achieved good results during the year. Industry insiders said that the big bull market in the consumer sector will most likely not recur, but it will evolve to a more rational, healthy and sustainable consumption grading trend in the future, so structural opportunities still exist. A number of public offerings believe that the current food and beverage has high investment value.
5. After Zhou Hongyi, founder and chairman of 360 Group, recently auctioned off for 9.9 million yuan, the performance progress of the buyer Chairman Chu has attracted much attention. On the evening of May 2, Chairman Chu of Tian'an second-hand car issued a video response to the online incident of "9.9 million yuan to shoot Zhou Hongyi Maybach and still have not paid off the balance". He said that the bidding price of 9.9 million yuan has been paid as agreed after fundraising, and the transfer of vehicle ownership is also underway.
6. Onlly Education issued a clarification announcement on the "Onlly Education Refund Announcement", the company is operating normally, the cash flow is stable, all kinds of teaching and service activities are carried out in an orderly manner, and there is no "refund" plan arranged by the company; the company has never entrusted any third party to make a refund, and all such behaviors are fraud.
7. John Lee, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, approved the appointment of Mr Tong Ka-shing as Chairman of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with immediate effect.
8. Country Garden announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that it achieved a contracted sales amount of about 3.85 billion yuan in April, and a contracted sales construction area of about 430,000 square meters.
9. According to the documents of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Shanghai Excellence Ruixin Digital Technology Co., Ltd. submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
In October and April, the monthly loading of open-top containers of Qingdao Port Qiangang Company in Shandong Port completed 29,066 vehicles, exceeding 29,000 vehicles for the first time, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, and a strong historical record.
Finance//
1. Relying on the rise of A-share core assets and the parachuting of star stock-based players into the bond-based track, the debt-based performance competition ushered in a "dimensionality reduction blow". A number of bond-based products operated by equity players have been listed in the top 10 bond fund performance, and even some bond-based traders have entered the top 20 in the whole market. The latest quarterly report also shows that the significant increase in bond-based stocks is a major source of performance flexibility, and some products that have been positioned in debt-biased funds for a long time have even increased from nearly 0% allocation to 80% of full-position stocks in the first quarter of this year.
2. Recently, mainland public REITs and Hong Kong Stock Exchange REITs have collectively ushered in a rebound. The CSI REITs Index has risen by 13.57% in the past 60 days, which is even better than the 6.74% increase of the CSI Dividend Index over the same period. Public REITs became one of the best-performing assets in the same period. Affected by multiple factors, the secondary market prices of public REITs have collectively rebounded, and all of them have risen in the past 60 days. The pace of market expansion is also accelerating significantly, and many products have received regulatory feedback in April.
3. According to the data, as of the end of March this year, the total assets of Shenzhen's banking industry reached 13.80 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.33%. The balance of various loans was 9.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.33%. The balance of deposits was 9.95 trillion yuan, up 6.07 percent year-on-year, and the original premium income of Shenzhen insurance institutions was 61.18 billion yuan, up 8.65 percent year-on-year.
4. The new fund issuance market remained hot, with the number of funds issued exceeding 100 in April, and the issuance share once again exceeding the 100 billion mark. A number of industry insiders said that despite the adjustment of the bond market in April, the "gold absorption" effect of bond funds is still continuing, and the issuance of equity funds has shown warmth. Looking ahead, as the market continues to recover, fund companies will continue to increase their layout efforts and attack equity, fixed income, index and other multi-dimensional attacks.
Housing//
1. Shanghai has launched the "old for new" activity for commercial housing, mainly for residents who plan to sell second-hand housing and buy new houses. Residents who purchase houses first reach an intention to purchase a new house with a real estate development company, and then the real estate brokerage agency gives priority to promoting the transaction of their old house, and the transaction of the new house is completed as agreed after the successful sale of the old house. More than 20 real estate development enterprises and nearly 10 real estate brokerage institutions participated in the first batch of the initiative. The first batch of more than 30 projects participated in the initiative, mainly distributed in Jiading, Songjiang, Qingpu, Fengxian, Lingang and other regions.
2. The Land Registry of the Hong Kong SAR Government reported that 8,551 agreements for sale and purchase of residential buildings were submitted to the Land Registry for registration in April, an increase of 115.3% month-on-month and 86.6% year-on-year. According to the data, there were 9,880 sales and purchase contracts for all types of properties in April, up 97.1% month-on-month and 71.7% year-on-year. The total value of agreements for sale and purchase of properties in April was HK$83.9 billion, up 124.6% month-on-month and 31.7% year-on-year.
Industry//
1. May 3 is the third day of the "May Day" holiday, two days before the holiday, people's willingness to travel is hot, May 2 is the second day of the holiday, and the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society is expected to exceed 285 million people.
2. The mid-term inventory of the "May Day" holiday released by Tongcheng Travel shows that the tourism popularity of major tourist cities across the country remained high in the first half of the holiday, and the tourism popularity of third-tier and below cities increased first. Ticket bookings and reservations for key museums increased by 406% year-on-year. In addition, during the May Day holiday, the demand for outbound travel was strong, and the popularity of Hong Kong and Macao remained in the lead in the first half of the holiday, among which Hong Kong hotel bookings increased by nearly 90% year-on-year.
3. According to Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of 22:14 on May 3, the total box office (including pre-sale) of the 2024 May Day new films has exceeded 1.2 billion!
4. The pipeline laying of the Yangtze River shield crossing project, a key control project of the Sino-Russian East Line Natural Gas Pipeline in Nantong, Jiangsu, was completed, and the main project was fully completed. The horizontal length of the tunnel is about 10.226 kilometers, the deepest buried depth of the pipeline is more than 60 meters from the river surface, and the inner diameter of the tunnel is 6.8 meters.
5. During the May Day period, Huaqiang North SEG Electronic Market was full of people, crowded with people who came to shop or purchase. On the whole, with the emergence of new products such as AI mobile phones, the national consumer electronics industry is entering a recovery stage. With the improvement of demand and fundamentals in the consumer electronics industry, the first quarter performance of many listed companies in the consumer electronics industry has also come to good news.
6. The world's first set of deep-water automatic serving manifold independently designed and manufactured by the mainland has been completed and delivered, and this type of equipment is currently under construction for the second phase of the "Shenhai No. 1" project, which can remotely control the implementation of deep-water offshore pipe pigging operations, and its completion is of great significance to promote the development and utilization of deep-water complex oil and gas resources in the mainland and accelerate the realization of high-level self-reliance and self-reliance in marine science and technology.
Overseas-
1. Fed Governor Bowman said that it is unclear whether further supply-side improvements will continue to reduce inflation, inflation is expected to remain high for some time, data shows that the decline in inflation at the end of 2023 is transitory, the Fed's monetary policy stance appears to be tight, and will continue to monitor the data closely to assess appropriate monetary policy.
2. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI in the United States in April was 49.4, a new low since December 2022, with an expected 52 and a previous value of 51.4.
3. The final value of the S&P Global Services PMI in April was 51.3, with an expectation of 50.9, a preliminary value of 50.9, and a final value of 51.7 in March, and a final value of 51.3 in the composite PMI, a preliminary value of 50.9, and a final value of 52.1 in March.
4. The unemployment rate in the euro area was 6.5% in March, with an expectation of 6.5% and a previous value of 6.5%.
5. France's industrial output in March rose 0.7% year-on-year, expected to rise 1.4%, the previous value fell 0.8%, and the month-on-month decrease was 0.3%, the expected increase was 0.3%, and the previous value rose 0.2%. Manufacturing output rose 1.0% year-on-year, with an expected increase of 1.2% and a previous decrease of 0.3%, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.5%, an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous increase of 0.9%.
6. Norges Bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.50% in May, in line with expectations. Norges Bank: The policy rate is likely to remain at its current level for some time to come.
7. Chablé, a famous wine-growing region in Burgundy, France, was hit by a violent hailstorm, which affected the local wine production this year may be greatly reduced. France's Minister of Agriculture and Food Sovereignty, Françault Feno said it was studying what support the government could provide to winegrowers in the Chablis region.
8. Indonesia's Finance Minister: Despite weak exports, economic growth is expected to remain around 5% in 2024.
9. According to the Bank of Thailand, Thailand's foreign exchange reserves rose to $221.51 billion from $221.33 billion previously.
International Stock Market //
1. Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index up 1.73%, Dajian Yuncang up 7.41%, New Oriental up 4.73%, Trip.com Group up 4.63%, Wuxin Technology up 4.27%, Weibo up 4.14%, NetEase up 4.11%, Shell up 3.71%, Tencent Music up 3.39%, Huazhu up 3.12%, Good Future up 3.01%, Zhihu up 3.01%, and in terms of decline, EHang fell 5.13% and Canaan Technology fell 4.41% , Gaotu Group fell 3.13%, and Kingsoft Cloud fell 2.87%. China's new energy vehicle stocks fell across the board, with NIO down 0.36%, Xpeng down 3.56%, and Li Auto down 3.38%.
2. S&P Dow Jones Indices: Vistra will be included in the S&P 500 index to replace Vanguard Natural Resources, and Allen Building Materials will be included in the S&P Midcap Index.
3. Bank of America strategists said that investors' focus may shift from inflation concerns to concerns about U.S. economic growth, which will put pressure on European value stocks. The Bank of America team downgraded European value stocks to underweight relative to growth stocks.
4. Nippon Steel announced that the completion of the acquisition of U.S. steel will be postponed until December this year. Nippon Steel said that the acquisition would require approval from the U.S. authorities, and decided to postpone the completion of the transaction after carefully calculating the closing time. Presumably, Nippon Steel believes that the approval of the US authorities will take more time.
5. Société Générale's net profit in the first quarter was 680 million euros, compared with the market expectation of 556 million euros.
6. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) approved ExxonMobil's $64.5 billion mega deal to acquire Vanguard Natural Resources, but barred Pioneer founder and former CEO Scott Sheffield from joining ExxonMobil's board of directors.
7. Unity Group will merge with Windstream, an Internet service provider.
8. South Korean Internet giant NAVER CORP preliminarily verified that the company's operating profit in the first quarter of this year was 439.3 billion won (about 2.31 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 32.9%. Sales were 2.5261 trillion won, up 10.8% year-on-year.
9. OpenAI is currently investigating the issue of elevated error rates on ChatGPT.
10. Indonesian ride-hailing giant GOTO plans to place up to 120 billion new shares privately.
11. Petroleos Mexicanos said it lost $1.2 billion in 2023 due to fuel theft.
12. Gazprom said that according to IFRS financial standards, the company's net loss attributable to shareholders in 2023 will be about 629 billion rubles (about 6.8 billion US dollars), compared with a net profit of 1,226 trillion rubles (about 15.29 billion US dollars) in the previous year. It was the company's worst loss in more than two decades.
Commodity-
1. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end copper target from US$10,000 to US$12,000 per tonne, raised the full-year forecast average price of copper from US$9,200 to US$9,800 per ton, and maintained its 2025 average price forecast at US$15,000 per ton.
2. According to data released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the global food price index in April was 119.1 points, up 0.3% month-on-month and down 9.6% year-on-year, affected by the slight increase in the prices of meat, vegetable oils and grains.
3. Chinatungsten Online revealed that the price trend of molybdenum in April was first a small decline and then a shock rise, while the total amount of iron molybdenum was about 11,500 tons. In April, the average price of molybdenum concentrate was 3,380 yuan/ton, down 0.88% month-on-month, the average price of ferro-molybdenum was 221909 yuan/ton, down 0.87% month-on-month, the average price of molybdenum oxide was 3,470 yuan/ton, down 1.00% month-on-month, and the average price of ammonium heptamolybdate was 221273 yuan/ton, down 1.61% month-on-month.
4. India imposes a 40% tariff on onion exports, and extends the duty-free import deadline for some yellow peas to October 31.
5. The Baltic Dry Bulk Index rose 5.75% to 1,876 points on Friday, rising for four consecutive days and up 9.01% for the week.
6. The total number of oil rigs in the United States in the week to May 3 was 499, compared with 506 in the previous week.
Bond//
1. Recently, there has been a wave of sharp decline in the bond market, among which, the 10-year Treasury bond yield hit 2.215% on April 23, a new low since the end of April 2002 and then rose rapidly, rising to 2.35% on April 29, and the 1-year Treasury bond yield hit 1.6447% on April 26 and once rose to 1.78%. Affected by the seesaw effect of stocks and bonds, the equity market has stabilized and improved recently, and investment sentiment has picked up, which has also affected the performance of the bond market to a certain extent.
2. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) announced the extension of the Green and Sustainable Finance Grant Scheme in the 2024-25 Budget. The Green and Sustainable Finance Grant Scheme was launched in May 2021 to provide funding to eligible green and sustainable debt instruments issued in Hong Kong. In the 2024-25 Budget, the Financial Secretary proposed to extend the Funding Scheme for three years to 2027 and extend the scope of funding to transition bonds and loans, with a view to further encouraging relevant industries in the region to make use of Hong Kong's transition finance platform to decarbonise progressively.
Foreign exchange//
1. According to market insiders' calculations based on the statistics of the Bank of Japan, the Japanese government and the central bank may have intervened in the foreign exchange market by 3 trillion yen on May 2 by buying yen and selling dollars. According to the analysis, an intervention of 5 trillion yen may have also been carried out on April 29. If this is the case, the total amount invested in the two days will be 8 trillion yen. Japan's Ministry of Finance will release on May 31 the total amount of interventions implemented from April 26 to May 29.
2. According to the Inner Mongolia Branch of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in the first quarter, the total amount of foreign-related receipts and payments made by banks in the autonomous region on behalf of customers reached US$17.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 124.9 percent, ranking first in the country, and the total amount of foreign exchange settlement and sales by banks was US$3.94 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.1 percent, ranking third in the country.
3. Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong: Pay close attention to foreign exchange fluctuations, it is inevitable to raise GDP forecasts, and the Bank of Korea will reassess the timing of interest rate cuts.
4. Bank Indonesia Governor: The appreciation of the rupiah will continue from now until the end of the year.
Important Economic Agenda //
1. Warren Buffett's shareholder meeting will start the Q&A session at 22:15.
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