1
Dream Green talked about the Nuggets-Timberwolves series on the podcast, and he mentioned the problem with the Nuggets' bench lineup. In the playoffs, everyone will add starting time, and teams with strong starting lineups often have a certain amount of strength in the playoffs. However, the quality of the substitutions is an important contest that cannot be ignored, as the back-to-back period of the game will take longer than expected. The main team plays 40 minutes, which does not mean that there are only 8 minutes in the connecting period, because the 5 main players are not the same as above, and most teams will stagger the main time to bring substitutes.
Taking the Nuggets as an example, in the series against the Lakers, the Nuggets started five Tigers used a total of 138 minutes in 5 games, with an average of 27.6 minutes per game, because there is almost no garbage time in this round, the Nuggets strictly control fouls, and there are not many cases where the core players sit on the bench during the playing period, it can be considered that at full power, the Nuggets will still have a 20-minute connecting period, and the game can be divided into starters (28 minutes), There are three parts: Jokic in the transition (10 minutes) and Jokic in the absence (10 minutes).
In the first round of the playoffs, the Lakers failed to take much advantage in the transition section, however, after 5 games, the Lakers still won 8 points by taking advantage of Jokic's absence time, and the Lakers also won 8 points in the transition section when Jokic was on the court, with a total of 16 points, an average of 1 game wins. One goal may not seem like much, but in fact, the difference between opponents with close strength is probably only one goal.
This season, the Nuggets have played the Timberwolves four times, and the Nuggets' starting five have been involved three times, losing by 14 points in 50 minutes. When the two teams met in the first round of the playoffs last year, the Nuggets lost by one point in 88 minutes with their starting five.
Past encounters may not be important, just as the Suns beat the Timberwolves in the regular season and were beaten by the Timberwolves in the playoffs, and the situation becomes more specific, and the game will become more targeted.
But objectively speaking, the Nuggets, as the defending champions, have played a very thorough series with the Lakers, and they must be studied to a much greater extent than the Timberwolves, who have just come to the championship file. From an observer's perspective, it's not easy to find the Nuggets' unexpected growth points, and conversely, the Suns have not tried the limits of the Timberwolves at all.
2
The Nuggets will face a more difficult offensive matchup in the starting game than in the first round. From last year's playoffs to this year's regular season, Gobert defended Jokic and Towns defended Jokic (Gobert vs. Gordon), both strategies, the Timberwolves tried. Judging from the last meeting between the two teams in the regular season, Gobert is a probable choice to defend Gordon first. But it's also certain that the Timberwolves will try both strategies in the transition, the finale, and as the series deepens, and compare the results.
The advantage of Towns defending Jokic is to free up Gobert's help defense and reduce Gobert's fouls. The downside is that Towns can make mistakes in the face of Jokic and Murray, and his own foul count is difficult to control. The Nuggets will have some arrangements to deal with Gobert's defense against Gordon, such as Gordon's high post strategy, and the effect of these contents will depend on the test of the game.
If Gobert confronts Jokic, he can reap a middle-of-the-road effect. Judging from the past meetings between the two, Gobert has the ability to reduce Jokic's offensive basket, but Jokic still has various ways to score. Whether Gobert can deal with Jokic while helping to defend other points may be more important than how well he can limit Jokic's effect directly.
In the last round of the series, the smaller Lakers finally chose to keep the paint area and rebound, and looked down on the shots that could not be covered by covering the ball, and the weak-side fixed-point threes that the rotation might not be able to make up. The Nuggets feel average, and the strategy of punishing the Lakers is not ruthless enough. The Timberwolves have better defensive resources, and they will likely be looking for all-encompassing. The quality of Jayden's defense against Murray cannot be lower than that of Reeves, and although Hanako is not high, he will not be worse at chasing Porter than Hachimura, who eats too much cover and is not responsive enough. And Conley, who is relatively at a loss in single defense, can hide here in Pope.
No matter what the Timberwolves' No. 4/5 position is, Gobert + Towns/Reed/Lee Kyle, enough frontcourt resources - these 4 people can be used to top Jokic - the comprehensive effect of the entire interior defense will not be lost to the Lakers who do not have a third qualified frontcourt. At the same time, the Timberwolves also have better perimeter defense, which makes it more difficult for the Nuggets to break the game by shooting. Even so, considering the difficulty of attacking the interior, the Nuggets need to shoot the threes they missed in the previous round. There is also a height advantage in playing the Lakers, and it is difficult to beat the Timberwolves if they are too iron.
Murray can't just be a dad in the juice collection stage, and this round, he really has to play at the level of last year's Western Conference finals.
Moving on to the defensive end, it's a little more complicated.
The Nuggets are better defensively than the Suns, both in terms of frontcourt size, discipline and continuity. But they will also struggle to defend Huazi's point of alignment, Pope is inferior in talent, and Gordon will use it to top Downs. Watson on the bench is a good matchup, but time is limited and the offensive end is more problematic. In last year's playoffs, Edwards averaged 31.6 points per game against the Nuggets, and his efficiency was quite good. If the Nuggets want to press this point, I'm afraid it will be difficult.
But that's not the point.
The point is, will the Nuggets continue to be late in their defensive intensity against the Lakers this round?
Fans might think that this is a special case for the Lakers. But the Nuggets' starting five is too important, and for the sake of 48 minutes, no matter which team they play against, strict foul control is necessary. In particular, Jokic, as the core and center, can dodge and hide at the beginning of the game, which has always been the choice.
The Timberwolves-Suns series is a completely different story. The Timberwolves are averaging 24.3 fouls per game, while the Suns are 23.3, the top two in the playoffs. In a sense, this is the inevitable result of the collision of the styles of the two teams, Durant and Booker are in charge, and the Suns are the team with the most free throws in the regular season, and the Suns suffer from the size and athleticism, and it is difficult not to pay fouls when encountering the Timberwolves. In comparison, the Nuggets, who are more similar in size and don't play free throws, will not play so hard against the Timberwolves.
However, Huazi's impact, Towns' football charge, Gobert's non-scoring under the basket, Reed's footsteps to the basket, and Jaden's fixed-point impact are not customized for the Suns. The Nuggets' interior line is bound to encounter these pressures.
The Nuggets are confident that they will be able to juice the Lakers after increasing the intensity, but in essence, it is because the Lakers have a bottom on the offensive end, but they may not face the Timberwolves who are stronger defensively. Comparatively, putting more defensive pressure on the Timberwolves' mid-level offense and waiting for the Timberwolves to make mistakes in the basket, passing, and breakout, there's obviously a bigger benefit.
Defending at a higher intensity, while also keeping fouls under control, is a challenge for the Nuggets starters.
The Timberwolves also have trouble controlling fouls, but the Timberwolves undoubtedly have a lot of backups. There are three center forwards, and two or two combinations have different advantages. If Towns is against Jokic, it is not difficult to average 5 fouls per game, but fortunately there is Reed behind him. Lee Kyle is not a center, but he has a certain ability to defend inside and can also switch to the outside, and will also be one of the candidates for Jokic. Jayden has Walker, who has better shooting, ball handling and passing behind him. These key defensive positions can be played to death. Conversely, the Nuggets can't accept that Jokic is stuck in a foul, and the level of the bench behind Pope and Gordon is very different.
So, even if we're talking about the starting lineup, the difference in depth between the two sides will still have an impact.
3
Articulation segments are more complex and unpredictable.
The Nuggets are more transparent, and the Timberwolves are variable, especially since they have more potential fouls and more combinations. For the time being, I can only say, play a dozen and see. In terms of configuration, the Timberwolves bench is undoubtedly superior. Although the Nuggets won the Timberwolves off the bench in the playoffs last year, the two teams have changed their staff, with the Nuggets missing Brown and Green, and the Timberwolves Reed and Jaden healthy.
The outcome of the transition will determine how big the hole the Nuggets start will fill when entering the critical ball stage. The Nuggets have been the hardest team to win on the ball in key stages this season, with the five-man dominance and Jokic being a true superstar in history. If the game is always scorched into the middle of the fourth quarter, the Nuggets will undoubtedly have a better chance of winning. For the wolves to find a way to play a game with a lot ahead, the necessary condition is to firmly grasp the advantage of the transition section.
The Timberwolves coaching staff should do their work carefully, not only considering how to limit Jokic and Murray, but also how to magnify the weaknesses of Watson, Braun, and Reggie, and the benefits will never be small. For example, whether Gobert can be put in the first and third quarters to deal with Jokic, or the second and fourth quarters to deal with Watson and Braun, this should be a game point. There is no need for the Suns to race horses, because the Suns have lost a lot of horses in the middle and lower ranks, and this round may have a balance of meaning.
4
Finally, let's talk about a little chaotic war that seems uncontrollable, but is actually part of the strategic layout.
The Nuggets' two-round series against the Lakers is a key game that cannot be ignored. The reason why the Nuggets dare to face the Lakers with a relatively loose defense is that in addition to being able to play back on the offensive end, it is also because the Lakers' two players who frequently attack the basket are also their most talented defenders.
Taking advantage of the height advantage of the frontcourt, as well as the misalignment of the Lakers' defense and rotation, to grab the rebound, this is also the advantage of the Nuggets.
Therefore, after fully absorbing the lessons, the Lakers set the strategy as follows, less rushing to the front board, emphasizing retreat, defending the basket first, reducing blind and fast play, and strictly controlling mistakes in the last few games, so that the Nuggets could not seize the opportunity to score points in the chaos.
The Timberwolves Suns are even more exaggerated in this round, the Timberwolves, as a team that usually does not rush to the front board very much, due to the too big advantage of the original talent, the opponent's defensive strategy made mistakes again, and directly snatched the Suns.
Chaos is an opportunity to amplify raw talent, and strong teams will pursue their own offensive and defensive orderliness, reduce chaos, and wait for the opponent's chaos to be exploited. In this regard, the Nuggets have proven themselves in the playoffs. The Timberwolves have a bigger upper and lower limit.
The Timberwolves have a lot of talent, as well as excellent defensive discipline and an underrated offensive playmaker. Theoretically, they have the potential to strictly control the opponent's chaotic battle, and they can go down quickly and rush to take off.
The reality is that the Timberwolves didn't do a great job in secondary offense and fast break in the regular season, which had to do with the emphasis on retreat, the rebounders and playmakers didn't coincide, and the two-tower team didn't push the rhythm to seek stability. This round with the sun is more like a special case. Whether it's in last year's playoffs or this year's regular season, they didn't take advantage of the chaos against the Nuggets - are those resumes still valid?
It's hard to estimate:
On the one hand, the wolves have another ability to "win in chaos", Huazi, Downs, and Reed are all players with strong misalignment ability and large open space advantages. And introducing the game into the style of running around is something in the original genes of wolves, and they don't play like this now, it doesn't mean that they can't fight like this;
On the other hand, the wolf's offensive organization is "grainy". They don't play messily, and compared to teams like the Suns, the Wolves belong to a team with a whole content. However, limited by the fineness of some players' handling of the ball, the wolves will inevitably make mistakes in the breakout, finishing, passing and receiving links, and the high-pressure defense will also exacerbate their mistakes.
Be steady, or be fierce and let the wolf make mistakes, which one is appropriate?
Because the Suns are too stretched, they have not tried to play the conservative strategy of retreating (good for protecting rebounds) or the aggressive strategy of putting pressure on the ball (good for making mistakes), which is more suitable for playing wolves in a playoff environment. It's up to the Nuggets to try it themselves. Whichever one is chosen, just as they will consider the integrity of the game when defending the Lakers, the same will be true for the Timberwolves.
The Timberwolves can win without chasing chaos, but they can't be messed up by the Nuggets. Finch (if he can coach from the sidelines) has shown enough caution and control in the playoffs to stabilize the team before the Wolves get out of control and avoid being snowballed by the Nuggets.
5
It's going to be a high-caliber Finals-level matchup:
From a configuration point of view, the Nuggets will have more difficulties. The Wolves can give it their all as they are used to, and every minute can be a decisive battle, while the Nuggets are limited by depth and are more cautious with every step. The Nuggets are in the light, the Timberwolves are in the dark, the Nuggets have no secrets, and the Timberwolves still need the Nuggets to try;
In terms of experience and star ability, the defending champions and Jokic have a reason to be trusted.
The last time the two teams met in the regular season, Jokic, who was serious-faced, showed a rare brutality in the regular season. He should be well aware that the opponent in the West who is most likely to pose a real threat to the Nuggets is the Timberwolves in front of him. This is an extremely important series in Jokic's journey to write greatness.
If Jokic can make it through, he will deserve all the praise because this is a series in which opponents are more resourceful and more targeted at him.
And if the Nuggets stop in this round, it has to be said that the management's failed bench roster construction last summer slowed down Jokic's pace of accumulating big honors. Although the Nuggets have stated that their goal is to have a longer championship window, in this era of rapid change, it is still a regrettable decision not to go all out when they can pursue a back-to-back championship.