Source: Finance Associated Press, Beijing News Reporter: Li Jie, Xu Qian
Inventory, save the property market, and start to move seriously!
据财联社消息，刚刚，自然资源部发布新规，凡商品住房去化周期长、土地流拍率高、市场需求明显不足的城市，应当从严控制商品住房用地供应规模。
政策明确，商品住宅去化周期超过36个月的城市，应暂停新增商品住宅用地出让，同时下大力气盘活存量，直至商品住宅去化周期降至36个月以下。
The following is a report from the Financial Associated Press and the Beijing News:
Actively implementing the spirit of the Politburo meeting, revitalizing the stock and optimizing the increment, the Ministry of Natural Resources has dynamically adjusted the land supply rules.
The Ministry of Natural Resources recently issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Supply of Residential Land in 2024", which clarifies that all localities should follow the principle of determining housing by people and land by housing, and connect with the annual plan for local housing development when preparing the annual residential land supply plan, strictly implement the "supply based on demand", make overall arrangements for the supply of residential land throughout the year, and promote the healthy and stable supply and demand of the real estate market.
This means that the supply of new residential land in various places in the future is closely related to the current commercial housing de-conversion cycle and the revitalization of stock data.
The notice proposes that all localities should optimize the scale, layout and structure of commercial office land and residential land in a timely manner according to market demand, and improve the residential land supply adjustment mechanism corresponding to the cycle of commercial housing and the stock of residential land.
Among them, cities with a de-conversion period of more than 36 months should suspend the transfer of new commercial residential land, and at the same time make great efforts to revitalize the stock until the de-conversion period of commercial housing falls below 36 months;
"In recent years, the Ministry of Natural Resources has established a two-way adjustment mechanism for the supply of residential land corresponding to the cycle of commercial housing and land stock, requiring the supply of residential land to be arranged according to the city's policies. The person in charge of the Department of Natural Resources Development and Utilization said.
It further stated that for cities with high inventory pressure and long de-escalation cycles, it is necessary to suspend the transfer of new commercial residential land and resolutely curb the unreasonable growth of stock land. For other cities with a long de-urbanization cycle, it is necessary to reasonably control the scale and pace of commercial residential land transfer, ensure that the stock does not increase, and gradually revitalize and digest.
From this point of view, in the current market environment, the new residential land transfer plans in most cities need to be implemented in combination with the revitalization of the stock.
According to the data of the China Index Research Institute, as of March 2024, the clearance cycle of the saleable area of commercial residential buildings in the country's 50 key cities has exceeded 20 months, of which only the average inventory clearance cycle in first-tier cities is less than 18 months, and the clearance cycle of individual second-tier cities is at a reasonable level.
In addition, according to the E-House Research Institute, the inventory-to-sales ratio of newly built commercial housing in 100 cities across the country in March was ranked, of which there were 10 cities with a de-housing cycle of more than 36 months, namely Shaoguan, Xining, Zhoushan, Luoyang, Harbin, Jiashan, Jinjiang, Quanzhou, Tangshan and Jiangyin.
While reasonably controlling the supply of new commercial residential land, the notice also mentions the establishment of a "people-real estate" linkage mechanism, "to determine the housing by people, to determine the land by housing, and to coordinate the 'market + security' residential land supply arrangement".
"In the future, cities with large and growing populations will also have more secure land supply. Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Institute, said.
The person in charge of the Department of Natural Resources Development and Utilization pointed out that the "Circular" requires all localities to follow the principle of determining housing by people and land by housing, and when preparing the annual residential land supply plan, it should be connected with the annual plan for local housing development, strictly implement the "supply based on demand", make overall arrangements for the supply of residential land throughout the year, and promote the healthy and stable relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market.
The "Notice" also made it clear that all localities should give priority to the land for affordable housing in the land supply plan and should ensure that all kinds of land should be guaranteed, and at the same time pointed out that it is necessary to coordinate and revitalize all kinds of stock land for the construction of affordable housing.
Chen Wenjing believes that in the future, the construction of affordable housing may be realized in two ways, one is to increase the supply of affordable housing land through agreement allocation, and the other is to build affordable housing by revitalizing the idle land in the hands of real estate enterprises and the idle land owned by enterprises and institutions.
It is worth noting that the "Notice" devotes a large amount of space to emphasizing the need to "consolidate responsibilities at all levels" and "strengthen organizational leadership and departmental coordination".
The "Notice" makes it clear that the municipal and county departments in charge of natural resources shall strictly implement the main responsibility for the supply of residential land, strengthen organizational leadership and departmental coordination, scientifically prepare land supply plans, implement the requirements for the regulation and control of residential land supply, do a good job in land purchase qualifications and capital supervision in accordance with laws and regulations, and actively cooperate with relevant departments to prevent financing platform companies from taking land in violation of regulations and prevent hidden debt risks from the government.
"Strengthen the revitalization of the stock of residential land, increase the disposal of idle land, require all localities to formulate disposal plans in a timely manner and organize their implementation, and actively prevent the risk of hidden debts in the real estate market and the government. The person in charge of the Department of Natural Resources Development and Utilization pointed out that while strengthening the guidance on the supply of new residential land, the Ministry of Natural Resources is also actively studying policies and measures to revitalize the stock, optimize the structure, improve the quality, and help the transformation, so as to better meet the people's demand for rigid and improved housing and promote the high-quality development of real estate.
"At present, the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market has undergone significant changes, and the Politburo meeting on April 30 has also clarified the direction of real estate policy. Only by implementing relevant measures in coordination and consolidating their own responsibilities can all localities and departments better promote the implementation of various measures and better promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Chen Wenjing thinks.
According to the statistics of Shanghai E-House Research Institute, as of March, the inventory-to-sales ratio of newly built commercial residential buildings in 100 cities across the country was 25.3 months, which means that according to the current sales speed, it will take 25.3 months to digest the inventory of new houses on the market. According to historical data and the construction relationship of real estate "development and pre-sale", the reasonable value of the inventory-to-sales ratio is defined as 12-14 months. This shows that the current destocking cycle is obviously high, which is easy to cause problems to the destocking and capital security of real estate enterprises.
At present, the Ministry of Natural Resources has not directly published the list of cities with a decommissioning period of more than 36 months, so it cites the inventory-to-sales ratio of the decommissioning period as a reference.
According to the statistics of the Shanghai E-House Research Institute, as of March, among the sample cities of 100 cities, there are 41 cities with a decommissioning cycle of more than 36 months, most of which are third- and fourth-tier cities, among which Shaoguan, Xining, Zhoushan, Luoyang, Harbin, Jiashan, Jinjiang, Quanzhou, Tangshan and Jiangyin, such cities generally have a decommissioning cycle of more than 3 years. In addition, cities with a decontamination period of more than 36 months include Fuzhou and Wuhan.
Data source: Shanghai E-House Research Institute
At the same time, the 10 cities with low decontamination cycles among the 100 cities are Shanghai, Zhengzhou, Shenyang, Nanchang, Zhuhai, Jinan, Sanya, Hangzhou, Zhongshan and Chengdu, and the overall decontamination cycle of such cities is about 12 months.
Zhang Hongwei, founder of Jingjian Consulting, analyzed: "The need to continue to supply land is measured by the de-industrialization cycle of 36 months, even according to the narrow inventory de-conversion cycle (the pre-sale license is not sold), only nearly half of the 30 large and medium-sized cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Hefei, Xi'an, Jinan, and Changsha have the conditions to continue to supply land." If according to the generalized inventory depletion cycle (the area of land that has been acquired and not sold), then the above-mentioned cities are estimated to be at least halved, and it is expected that only a few cities such as Hangzhou, Hefei and Ningbo will have the conditions for continued land supply.