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Oil prices adjusted, and international oil prices fell by 9.1%......
Recently, the international crude oil market is under pressure, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices have both fallen, from the market feedback analysis, on May 1, U.S. oil and Brent oil hit more than 3% in a single day, among them, WTI crude oil quotation fell to 79 US dollars / barrel, after nearly 2 months, U.S. oil fell below 80 US dollars / barrel again, compared with 86.91 US dollars / barrel in mid-April, WIT crude oil quotation fell by 9.1%!
According to the analysis of the agency, in accordance with the domestic refined oil price management regulations, every 10 working days to the three crude oil changes as a reference, it is understood that at present, oil prices ushered in the 10th price adjustment cycle of the year, with reference to international crude oil April 29 to May 14, domestic oil price adjustment time is 24 o'clock on May 15!
Due to the impact of the May Day holiday, the domestic refined oil price adjustment into the "holiday period", this round of pricing cycle is temporarily in the first working day, referring to the international crude oil market on April 29, the domestic crude oil change rate hovered at -0.22%, gasoline and diesel are estimated to hover at 15 yuan / ton, oil prices are temporarily in the node of no adjustment, the price reduction is less than 50 yuan / ton of the standard line!
However, in the international crude oil market, previously, crude oil prices showed a three-day downward trend, especially on May 1, the decline further expanded, which also means that the domestic crude oil change rate after the holiday or will be sharply reduced, the oil price adjustment, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to show a downward trend, and the decline is expected to further expand!
According to institutional analysis, international oil prices fell sharply, mainly due to the increase in the level of crude oil inventories in the United States significantly exceeded expectations, reaching 7.9 million barrels, and the interest rate of the new Federal Reserve meeting remained stable.
However, because the geopolitical tension has not been completely extinguished, and Israel is expected to insist on attacking Rafah, the international crude oil market is still facing many risks, and the direction of this round of oil price adjustment is still unclear, and the author will continue to pay attention!
Attached: No. 92 gasoline prices in various provinces and cities on May 3, 2024!
At the same time, in the domestic pig and cattle and sheep markets, the market trend is ups and downs, and the specific analysis is as follows:
Pig market: by the stage of good support to strengthen, the holiday sentiment pulled significantly, the price of live pigs showed a sharp rise in the situation, the average price of domestic live pigs rose to 15 yuan / kg, the north and south regions, pig prices showed a trend of rising across the board, the mainstream area, pig prices rose by about 0.1 ~ 0.3 yuan / kg, the average price of domestic live pigs generally rose to 14 ~ 15.8 yuan / kg......
On the one hand, due to the favorable holiday to drive consumption support, the enthusiasm for pork purchase and sales in the downstream wholesale market has become stronger, the pace of white goods has accelerated, the pressure on surplus goods in the wholesale market has been reduced, and the procurement demand of traders is strong, which has also boosted the enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises.
On the other hand, due to the tight supply of pig sources in stages, affected by the festive atmosphere, the pig enterprises in the mainstream areas of the north and south have limited slaughter plans, the supply of live pigs is insufficient, and many pig farms have a significant mentality of selling pigs, and the bullish enthusiasm of the breeding end has been greatly improved, and the mentality of raising prices is strong!
Therefore, under the support of sentiment and festivals, the trend of pig prices is strong, however, at the end of the holiday, the market sentiment may gradually change, the downstream white bar purchase and sales demand or will be reduced, the enthusiasm for slaughter at the breeding end will gradually increase, and the pig price will rise or will face the performance of lack of stamina, in particular, the lack of consumption support after the holiday, the market pig supply is concentrated, and the pig price may have the risk of falling sharply!
Cattle and sheep market: At present, the domestic beef and mutton market is showing a stable and weak trend, previously, official data show that the domestic agricultural product market, the average wholesale price of beef is 64.94 yuan / kg, compared with 72 ~ 73 yuan / kg before the Spring Festival, a decrease of nearly 10%.
The average wholesale price of mutton in China was 61.33 yuan/kg, and the decline also reached about 6~7 yuan/kg. According to feedback from netizens, at present, the price of beef in rural markets in many places has dropped to about 30 yuan/kg, and the price of some beef has dropped to about 28 yuan/kg. In terms of mutton, the price of mutton in many markets has dropped to about 33~34 yuan/jin, and the price of bone-in lamb chops is about 28~30 yuan/jin......
Of course, the price of domestic fresh beef and mutton is relatively high, recently, there have been imported frozen beef and mutton in many places, the price is more cheap, the mainstream price is only about 20~25 yuan/jin, and the price of some whole sheep hexads is only 17~18 yuan/jin, which is mainly affected by the relatively low price of imported beef and mutton, and the import cost of mutton is only 13~14 yuan/jin, and some are even only 11~12 yuan/jin.
At present, due to the off-season in the consumer market, the prices of pork, poultry and eggs are relatively low, and the purchase and sale of improved beef and mutton are relatively cold, which also exacerbates the downturn in the domestic fattening cattle and sheep market!
From the analysis of institutional data, in terms of fattening cattle, Shandong quotation is 11~13 yuan/jin, Heilongjiang quotation is 10.9~12.5 yuan, Inner Mongolia quotation is 11~12.5 yuan, Henan market quotation is 11~12.9 yuan/jin, fattening cattle prices are relatively low, and some farmers are facing severe loss pressure! Pounds or so!
Personally, I believe that due to the consumption off-season and the sufficient production capacity of domestic beef and mutton, superimposed, and the low price of imported beef and mutton, the fattening cattle and sheep market will continue to be under pressure in the short term!