finance.sina.com.cn 2022-02-15 15:38 An old article, forwarded here, someone is destined to read it.
Producer: Sina Finance Listed Company Research Institute
Author: Big Eye Lou Guan / Sean
Recently, a series of policies have been introduced to regulate the use of financing and pre-sale funds for real estate enterprises, which is conducive to the recovery of the refinancing ability of real estate enterprises to a certain extent. However, S&P Global Ratings released a report entitled "The Easing of Liquidity Pressure on Real Estate Enterprises Still Remains to Be Seen" released on February 14, which still believes that the current liquidity pressure on real estate companies is still large.
We believe that this is mainly due to the fact that most of the cash flow and monetary funds of real estate development enterprises are deposited at the subsidiary project level, and the amount of monetary funds in the headquarters is low, while the headquarters is facing greater debt repayment pressure in 2022. Just as Zhenro Real Estate has seen a double kill of stocks and bonds, it is also due to the prominent debt repayment pressure of its overseas debts this year.
In view of this, Big Eye Real Estate Management has sorted out the stock of Chinese-funded overseas bonds of domestic real estate enterprises so far. According to the data, the scale of overseas debts to be repaid by real estate companies this year has reached about 300 billion yuan, plus 230 billion yuan of domestic debts.
Among them, Country Garden, Evergrande and Kaisa are among the top three in terms of the scale of overseas bonds, all exceeding US$10 billion. The top three overseas bonds due in 2022 are Evergrande, Kaisa, and Greenland, all of which exceed US$2.5 billion, and the debt repayment pressure is not small.
The performance of overseas bonds continues to be weak Most of the bonds issued are short-term and costly
Recently, including Shimao, Longguang and other leading real estate companies, including domestic real estate companies overseas bonds have been sharply killed, of which the most drastic interpretation is Zhenro Real Estate, as of press time, the past three trading days Zhenro Real Estate share price fell by 75%. Wind data shows that including 200 million US dollars in perpetual bonds, Zhenro Real Estate will repay more than 7 billion yuan of overseas debts this year, and the company's interim report data last year showed that its debts due within a year reached 20.3 billion yuan, all of which show that Zhenro has greater debt repayment pressure this year.
In fact, the trend of the iBoxx Chinese dollar bond index shows that since the second half of last year, the Chinese dollar bonds of domestic real estate companies, whether investment grade or speculative grade, have shown a downward trend. Investment grade slipped from 222 to 217, while riskier speculative grade slipped from 320 to 248, down 22.5%. For example, Longguang's current stock of overseas bonds has fallen sharply without exception, and the coupon has fallen to about 60-70 from about 100 before. Zhenro's current largest stock "Zhenro Real Estate 7.125% N20220630" has fallen to the level of only in the early 30s.
In the case of the overall financing environment is not optimistic, Wind data shows that the overseas bonds issued by real estate companies in the past six months are basically within 3 years, and most of them are in 1 year. The cost of 1-year is mostly about 9%, while the cost of 2-year is about 12%, so whether it is from the perspective of term or interest rate, overseas capital markets are currently more cautious about domestic real estate companies.
The scale of overseas debts due during the year was about 300 billion yuan, and Country Garden ranked first
Wind data shows that according to the current 591 overseas bonds of real estate enterprises in stock (including reissued bonds), the current balance maturity scale is the largest in 2022, close to 300 billion. Since then, it has gradually declined, but the overall debt repayment pressure in 2022-2024 is at a high level, so it is difficult to be optimistic about overseas financing of real estate companies in the short term.
The top three overseas debt stocks are Country Garden, Evergrande and Kaisa, with US$15.059 billion, US$14.05 billion and US$11.351 billion respectively. Among the top three, there have been two "thunderstorms", and Country Garden has risen to the first place in the scale of overseas debt due to the Evergrande East Window incident. It was followed by Sunac China, Shimao Group, Yuzhou Real Estate, Sino-Ocean Group, Greenland Group, Vanke, Agile, CIFI Group, etc., with an overall overseas debt scale of more than US$4 billion.
The top three overseas debt maturity this year are Evergrande, Kaisa, and Greenland, all of which exceed US$2.5 billion, and the debt repayment pressure is not small, followed by Xincheng Holdings, Country Garden, Sunac China, Rongxin Group, and Zhenro Real Estate. At present, Zhenro Real Estate has been killed by overseas debt rumors, and larger real estate companies need to pay attention to the risk of overseas debt repayment.
As Wang Jun, vice chairman of Jianye Group, who is currently undergoing organizational adjustment, said, about 60% of Jianye's total interest-bearing liabilities are overseas US dollar bonds. Similar to CCRE, the adjustment of the overseas capital market has made domestic real estate enterprises realize that many domestic real estate enterprises need to continuously optimize their financing structure, increase the proportion of domestic financing, and reduce the scale and risk of overseas US dollar bonds.
However, domestic debt will also usher in greater debt repayment pressure in the first half of this year.
March and July were the peak months for onshore bond maturities
In the past January, a total of 39 bonds of real estate enterprises matured, with a total amount of 59.422 billion yuan, an increase of 77.0% from December last year, and the number of mature bonds increased by 8 month-on-month.
At the same time, the overall debt maturity situation of the industry in the second half of this year is not optimistic. According to S&P based on public data, the maturity amount of domestic bonds of the 116 sample companies it counted in 2022 is also as high as 230 billion yuan, compared with the already stressful January, the next March and July are relative maturity peaks, and the industry is still facing liquidity pressure.
It is worth mentioning that as of June 2021, the monetary funds at the parent company level of the 116 sample real estate companies in this statistics only accounted for about 16% of the total consolidated caliber. This is mainly due to the fact that after experiencing some real estate enterprise risk events in the second half of last year, the local government has strengthened the supervision of project pre-sale funds in order to consolidate the responsibility of "guaranteed delivery", and most of the cash flow and monetary funds of real estate development enterprises are precipitated at the project level of subsidiaries, and the amount of monetary funds in the headquarters is low. In addition, the excessively tightened regulatory measures in some areas have exacerbated the poor capital turnover of real estate enterprises, so the debt repayment pressure of the headquarters of real estate enterprises has become more prominent.
Zhenzhitang press: It turns out that real estate companies borrow usury under the premise that the dollar does not appreciate!
On May 1, SUNAC 5.5 issued by Sunac China on 09/30/27 is now priced at 8.100, down -3.476%, with a yield of 122.611%. This article is sourced from AI Telegram in the financial world
Sunac bond yields have reached 122%. Can you copy the bottom? Let's talk about it.