We have all heard the story of the wolf coming, which means that we always shout that the wolf is coming, the wolf is coming, but the wolf does not come once, so we shout too much, and after shouting for a long time, no one believes it.
And this time the pig price on May Day is a bit of this meaning.
In the past, although the "festival rise" has also failed, but it will be pretended before the festival, and the market sentiment will be a little excited, but this time, seeing the May Day, the pig price not only did not rise, but also fell directly before the festival 15 yuan / kg mark.
It's easy to fall, but it's hard to go up.
That is, the day before the May Day, the pig price rose so-so, and the price rose very perfunctory, feeling that it was symbolically rising, and it was predictable that it could not rise at all.
It's also weird, why didn't you even pretend this time?
First, the sentiment of the pig market has fallen.
That's right, not only the price of pigs has fallen, but so has the sentiment.
In March, the mood was the strongest, the price of piglets rose sky-high, and the second fattening also frequently rose, which shows that everyone is optimistic about the later market, so actively fill the column.
But in April, the price of pigs did not rise, not only did not rise, but also began to fall, and the price difference of standard fertilizer continued to narrow.
As a result, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has been greatly reduced, and the subscription sentiment has begun to increase.
Second, the sudden change in the weather in the south has added to the congestion of the pig market.
It is obviously the season of spring flowers, but by the end of April, the weather changed suddenly, especially in many places in the south, which not only affected the purchase and sale of live pigs, but also exacerbated the risk of the epidemic, so by the end of the month, the slaughter began to increase, making the supply of live pigs increase.
Third, demand is not rising.
Approaching May Day, although the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has increased, the range is very limited, and the white goods are still mediocre, which is difficult to support the market.
So instead of saying that the price of pigs has risen, it is just a symbolic meaning, whether it can go back to 15 yuan/kg, let alone a big rise.
What's worse is that not only is it not installed before the holiday, but it may continue to fall after the holiday.
Because the mentality of the hog market is complex.
Don't look at the bullish sentiment before, but the reversal is also a matter of minutes.
This is like the story of the wolf, they all said that they were going to rise, and they were all bullish, but the Qingming was dumb, and the fire was extinguished in April, and it fell before the holiday, so gradually, the heart of the rise was gone.
Second, demand remains subdued.
There is a certain demand for stocking before the holiday, but it will soon be beaten back to its original shape after the holiday, and as the demand falls, pig prices are likely to return to the downward trend.
However, such a toss is not necessarily a bad thing.
Because after the early sentiment falls, it means that the supply of live pigs in the later period will not surge due to the rhythm disorder, which is conducive to maintaining a normal trend in pig prices in the later stage.
On the other hand, the market has been saying that it is necessary to remain cautiously optimistic about pig prices.
The view believes that prudence is more important than optimism, and the price of pigs has fallen, there will be less optimism, and more cautiousness will naturally be more, both for the pig market and for farmers.
So, can pig prices still rise?
The answer, of course, is yes, but the amplitude needs to be grasped well.
Overall, pig prices are better this year than last year, but that doesn't mean everyone is guaranteed to be profitable. It may be a stage of profit, or it may be the profit of some farmers, at least under the established framework of supply and demand, it is difficult for pig prices to get out of too big a market.
At the end of this article, thank you for reading!