On April 25, some media exposed a piece of news that shocked people in the photovoltaic industry, they obtained a preview version of LONGi's product specification from a mysterious distributor, and it can be seen from the details of the online pictures that this is indeed in line with the style of LONGi's previous product specifications, with a module efficiency of up to 24.4% and a power of 625-660W. With the fermentation of public opinion, LONGi has once again been pushed to the forefront.
From the dispute between mono and multi technologies to the "PK" of TOPCon and BC technologies, will LONGi still win this time?
LONGi's "First Year of BC"
On November 2, 2022, LONGi's next-generation Hi-MO 6 PV module series products were launched, which is a mass-produced product from HPBC technology, which adopts a metal-free grid design on the front side and has significant advantages in power generation. Therefore, 2022 is also known as "LONGi's first year of BC".
International Energy Network learned that at that time, the efficiency of the standard version of LONGi's HPBC cell mass production was about 25%, and the efficiency of the pro version reached 25.3%. Hi-MO X6 modules equipped with this technology have a 6%-10% higher power generation performance than traditional modules, and the maximum efficiency of module products can reach 23.3% in mass production.
LONGi's Hi-MO 6 module products based on HPBC technology have been highly recognized by the market as soon as they were launched, and the new products supported by HPBC technology have brought remarkable changes to LONGi's performance in the first three times of 2023. As a result, in the first three quarters of 2023, LONGi shipped 43.53 GW of monocrystalline modules, with which the company's revenue reached 94.1 billion yuan and its net profit exceeded 11.7 billion yuan.
On the evening of September 19, 2023, LONGi announced that the board of directors officially passed the "Proposal on Investing in the Construction of Tongchuan High-efficiency Monocrystalline Cell Project with an Annual Output of 12GW". According to the proposal, the 12GW battery project products will use HPBC pro high-efficiency battery technology, with an estimated total investment of 3.9151 billion yuan, and is expected to be gradually put into production in November 2024 and reach production in November 2025.
At the end of 2023, according to the authoritative certification report of the Solar Energy Research Institute (ISFH) in Hamelin, Germany, LONGi's self-developed HBC product achieved a cell conversion efficiency of 27.09% using an all-laser patterned mass-produced process, creating a new world record for the efficiency of monocrystalline silicon solar cells, which is another breakthrough after LONGi Green Energy set a world record of 26.81% for silicon solar cell efficiency in November 2022.
On October 8, 2023, LONGi held a distributed new product launch conference, and among the new Hi-MO X6 series products released this time, it is still the most eye-catching high-efficiency anti-ash accumulation module, and this module is the first distributed product released by LONGi after officially announcing BC technology and upgrading the brand identity of distributed products.
It has been found that in just one year, the mass production conversion efficiency of LONGi's BC cell products has quietly increased from 25% to 25.3%, from 25.3% to 25.8%, and the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic modules has increased from 23.3% to 24.4%.
Is TOPCon just a transitional technology?
Whether it is the battle between monocrystalline and multicrystalline technology, or the later PERC technology replacing aluminum back-field cell technology, and then TOPCon technology replacing PERC, people have found that the time for technology iteration is gradually shortening. So how long can TOPCon, one of the current mainstream technologies, be popular in the industry?
Zhong Baoshen, chairman of LONGi
Zhong Baoshen, chairman of LONGi, gave this answer in an interview with the media: "Regarding TOPCon technology, it is still a transitional product, and compared with the current PERC, its improvement is still too small, and the industry technology is highly homogeneous, and it is very easy to have investment returns that do not meet expectations, or there is a surplus before making money." There are already signs of this. ”
"BC technology, I feel very much like the mono products of 2013 and 2014. At that time, everyone thought that poly was good, but we stuck to our own judgment. This time we are very determined that the same result will come. That's why we're very conservative in our investments in TOPCon. Zhong Baoshen said.
The reason why TOPCon is said to be a "transition technology" may be because from the perspective of mass production efficiency, the theoretical maximum conversion efficiency of TOPCon is about 28.5% to 28.7%, while the conversion efficiency of IBC cells can reach up to 29.1%. Since conversion efficiency is crucial to power generation, once IBC is developed on a large scale, the cost will be further reduced, and the increase in power generation brought by its conversion efficiency will increase the revenue of photovoltaic power plants.
Not only that, because the BC technology adopts the method of back contact, the front of the module cannot see the grid line, and the overall appearance is more beautiful, which is suitable for environments with more requirements for application scenarios.
Some clues can also be seen from the dynamics of some current TOPCon projects. As of the end of December 2023, 50.6GW of PERC cell capacity has been closed or stopped, and 132GW of TOPCon projects are facing a suspended expansion, which is so large. If it's not overcapacity, it's hard to explain why this postponement of capacity expansion makes sense.
Who says that only those who stand in the light are heroes?
At that time, a song "The Lonely Brave" could be heard in every corner of the streets, and one of the lyrics was very suitable to describe LONGi's current situation - "Who said that only those who stand in the light are heroes?"
Judging from the technical route chosen by the major photovoltaic companies in the current market, the BC technology that LONGi bets on this time is definitely "niche", at present, only Zhonghuan and Aixu are on the same track, and the TOPCon technology field gathers JinkoSolar, Yiyi New Energy, Chint New Energy, Trina Solar and other "old brands", and there are also "new players" such as Junda Co., Ltd. and Huadong Heavy Machinery to join.
Li Zhenguo, founder of LONGi
LONGi has chosen a path that is destined to be difficult and lonely, as Li Zhenguo, the founder of LONGi, said: "You can do what others can't do, or what is difficult for others to do, and you finally achieve it through a simpler way, I think this is actually a technological innovation and breakthrough, including the realization of the value of the technical team, and then it may also be the embodiment of the company's value." ”
Perhaps this is how LONGi has taken practical actions to avoid the PV industry falling into homogeneous competition. Every year, the company invests a lot of money in the field of technology to test different technical routes, select the best of the best, and finally after repeated demonstrations, go to officially launch mass production products.
In fact, LONGi has researched many different photovoltaic technologies, and some of them have achieved quite high conversion efficiency verified by the laboratory, but LONGi is not in a hurry to use these technologies to directly produce mass-produced products, but only carefully selects BC technologies from them and lays out mass production projects, which shows that BC technology is the most promising technology in LONGi's view.
As Zhong Baoshen, Chairman of LONGi, said: "LONGi's cautious attitude towards capacity expansion in the first two years is mainly based on the judgment of risks during the period of rapid change in the technical route. Now the direction has been clear, and in the announced investment plan projects, BC technology will be used and put into production at the announced pace. ”
The international energy network found that the reason why many companies do not choose the BC route may be due to cost considerations, because after all, the industry is so seriously involuted, lower costs, lower prices, it is possible to have a better market space, giving up BC technology, for these enterprises, may not be a bad thing, because after all, there are not many companies in the industry can invest as much money and manpower in the field of new technology research and development as LONGi. Choosing a relatively mature and low-cost technology can reduce the cost of trial and error for enterprises. But these companies are also destined to be mediocre and will never be able to stand at the forefront of industry development.
Li Zhenguo, the founder of LONGi, revealed at the end of last year that the cost of BC technology is very close to that of similar technologies, slightly higher than that of traditional PERC technology. "Currently, HPBC modules can maintain a premium of 1-1.5 cents/W in the general market and 3-4 cents/W in the high-end market. ”
Whether LONGi can "bring down" the price of BC products may become an important task now and for a long time to come.
It is understood that at present, in addition to actively promoting the mass production project of BC products, LONGi is also stockpiling a new generation of perovskite cell technology. Because on the big stage of photovoltaic technology, leading enterprises need a more forward-looking perspective, and it will take time to further test whether LONGi can become the guiding light of the industry as it did back then!
Source: International Energy Network WeChat public account