At 24 o'clock on April 29, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will be officially opened. In the view of comprehensive institutions, the price of refined oil products will usher in the second decline in 2024.
In this round of pricing cycle, international crude oil prices fell first and then rose. On the supply side, geopolitical conflicts are gradually easing, but instability remains. A number of OPEC+ oil producers have stated that they will firmly promote production cuts, and the pattern of tight supply continues.
On the demand side, although U.S. crude oil inventories have declined, the traditional fuel consumption season has not yet arrived, and short-term demand is still weak, which has a weak effect on oil prices. The U.S. dollar continued to fluctuate slightly at a high level, and did not go out of the general trend, which also led to oil prices in a narrow range.
Liu Bingjuan, an analyst of Longzhong information refined oil products, said that according to the domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism, the domestic gasoline and diesel fell by about 80 yuan / ton on April 30, and the fuel tank of 70 liters will cost private car owners about 3.5 yuan less to fill up a tank of oil.
According to Sino-Singapore Jingwei, since the beginning of this year, the domestic refined oil price adjustment has shown a pattern of "five rises, one fall and two stranded", with gasoline and diesel rising by 875 yuan and 845 yuan per ton respectively. If this round of price adjustment is implemented, the price adjustment of refined oil during the year will be "five up, two down and two stranded".
According to the principle of "ten working days", the next round of retail price adjustment window for refined oil will open at 24 o'clock on May 15, 2024. Looking ahead, Liu Bingjuan believes that the favorable support of geopolitical factors may be further weakened, in addition to the poor performance of economic data, the outlook for crude oil demand is slowly improving.
According to the analysis of Zhuochuang Information, there is no core contradiction in the oil market at present, the market chooses to wait and see, and oil prices will also maintain a narrow range of fluctuations. From the perspective of risks, first, oil inventories have been greatly destocked, and second, the situation in the Middle East has been repeatedly disturbed.
Zhuochuang information said that it is expected that the domestic refined oil market is weak before the holiday, the price rebound pressure is greater, most of the industry has a cautious short mentality, the willingness to ship is strong, diesel continues to decline, the demand side is difficult to boost, gasoline decline slows down, due to the pre-holiday stocking support, the fundamentals or will be marginally better.
Source: China-Singapore Jingwei Red Network