The first half of 2024 is coming to an end, and we are about to usher in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, the domestic economy got off to a good start, with a GDP of 2.963 billion yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. In addition, domestic inflation is also at a low level, with CPI only 0.1% year-on-year, unchanged from the same period last year. The fly in the ointment is that household consumption, the real estate market, and the employment situation are not as expected. It seems that it will take time for the economy to fully recover to its pre-pandemic level.
In fact, if nothing else, there may be five major trends in China in the second half of the year, and I hope you will prepare in advance. The five major trends are: 1) It is becoming more and more difficult to take the public examination, 2) The employment situation is relatively severe, 3) It is becoming more and more difficult to do business, 4) Housing prices will continue to fall, 5) The deposit interest rate is getting lower and lower. Let's find out:
First, the public examination is becoming more and more difficult
Nowadays, the most popular thing in various places is to apply for the civil service examination. The main reason is that it is difficult to find a job nowadays, and even if you find a job, it is difficult to guarantee long-term stability. And once you become a civil servant, you have a stable income and a job. As long as you don't make major mistakes, you can stay in retirement.
However, because everyone wants to apply for the civil service establishment, thousands of troops have to cross this single-plank bridge. This will undoubtedly make it much more difficult to apply for the civil service examination. It is expected that the public examination will become more and more difficult in the future. Therefore, if your personal ability is not particularly outstanding, it is still not recommended to choose the path of taking the civil service examination.
Second, the employment situation is becoming more and more severe
The employment situation in 2024 is so grim mainly due to two aspects: on the one hand, 11.87 million fresh college graduates are looking for jobs this year, not including the urban unemployed and new migrant workers, and on the other hand, the real economy continues to be sluggish. The profitability of many enterprises has declined, and the demand for recruitment has decreased rapidly. For this reason, many young people now either go to work as food delivery workers, couriers, and online car-hailing, or they can only start their own businesses. It is expected that the domestic employment situation will remain very severe in the second half of 2024.
Third, it's getting harder and harder to do business
The main reasons why it is becoming more and more difficult to do business now are: 1. After the epidemic, the consumption demand of the people has shrunk, resulting in a serious backlog of inventory in many small and medium-sized enterprises, and the funds cannot be withdrawn in time. 2. During the epidemic, many young people have developed the habit of online shopping, because online shopping is not only cheap, but also delivered to their homes. In this way, there will be an impact on physical stores.
3. Now the rents of office buildings, shops, and factories are rising every year, which often takes away a large part of the profits of enterprises. The trend of expecting business to be more and more difficult to do business will not change for a long time.
Fourth, house prices will continue to fall
Heading into 2024, there is still no sign of reversing the downward trend in house prices. First, housing prices in second- and third-tier cities represented by Zhengzhou, Tianjin, and Wuhan fell, and then spread to first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. Taking Shanghai as an example, the housing prices in the downtown area have fallen from more than 100,000 yuan per square meter at the peak to 6-70,000 yuan per square meter now, and the housing prices have fallen by 30%-40%. It is expected that in the second half of 2024, domestic housing prices will continue to continue the previous downward trend, which is difficult to change for a long time in the future.
Fifth, deposit rates are getting lower and lower
In order to stimulate consumption and reduce financing costs, major domestic banks will continue to cut deposit rates starting from 2023. After entering 2024, the domestic 3-year deposit rate has fallen to less than 3%. At the same time, the interest rate on one-year deposits has been reduced to less than 2%. Currently, domestic deposit rates are at an all-time low.
It is predicted that in the second half of this year, the deposit rate will be further reduced. Our suggestion is that savers can put their money in a 3-year fixed deposit, which can lock in the deposit rate for a long time. Even if the bank deposit is low, keep the money in the bank, at least the principal and interest are guaranteed. In short, everyone should be prepared for lower and lower deposit rates.