If you have to use two words to describe the A-shares in March and April, it is "chicken ribs", tasteless food, and it is a pity to abandon it.
If you have to change four words to describe the current trend of A-shares, it is "twisting and pinching", which is not up or down, which makes people worry.
There are some opinions, and even think that the current A-shares are crumbling.
If 3000-3100 can't be held here, once it breaks down, it may be 2600-2700 again.
The market has been fluctuating in a narrow range here for nearly two months, what is the intention?
Everyone is looking for an answer: is the probability of going up or down.
In view of this, combined with the disk, let's talk about some views and opinions.
There are several reasons for the current twist in the market.
1. The lack of subject matter and the main line are not clear.
In addition to a hot low-altitude economy, the entire market in March and April, there is no other decent subject.
However, the overall size and volume of the low-altitude economy are not enough to support the market of the entire index.
The low-altitude economy is only the initial stage of development, and the overall market size cannot be as large as new energy vehicles in the future.
The ability of this main line to absorb gold is limited, resulting in the main capital of the market not knowing where to go.
In addition to this line, there are two distinct lines in the market, one is the dividend line with high dividends, and the other is the high-growth technology line.
But both lines have the same problem, that is, they are not cheap, and they are both at a high level in history.
This also makes many funds hesitate, whether to enter or retreat, and how to operate better.
In fact, the market has pushed through a main line, new quality productivity, but the concept is very vague, and there is no good plate effect.
If the main line is unclear, it will be difficult for the market to start.
2. The valuation is cheap, but the performance growth is slow.
The cheap valuation of A-shares is also an important factor supporting the market.
But on the other hand, valuations are cheap because performance growth has slowed.
The overall economic growth slowdown has led to a slowdown in the performance growth of listed companies, and the entire market has entered a cycle of low growth.
Without high growth, there is no room for high expectations and imagination.
When the funds enter the market, they will hesitate and have a wait-and-see attitude.
The so-called cheapness is relative, and if it can only bring a margin of safety and cannot bring a money-making effect, it is not attractive to funds.
On the contrary, some high-prosperity tracks still rose to a certain extent, because the expectations are better.
3. The increment is insufficient, and the stock is cut in turn.
To be honest, there is really no increase in A-shares, especially above 3,000 points.
The 2635-3000 is so fast that the funds simply don't have a chance to get on the bus at a low level.
The funds for getting on the bus at a high position are naturally cautious.
In the 3000-3100 oscillation, in fact, the funds repeatedly sell high and buy low, reducing their own chip costs.
The corresponding cut is the leeks of retail investors, and they have become vampires of retail investors.
But as long as you lie flat and don't move, it's a little better, and the result of chasing back and forth is a loss step by step.
In the stock market, there will be no big market, and after everyone's expectations are unanimous, the upward momentum of the market will be insufficient, because the space is insufficient.
According to this situation, how will A-shares go in the future?
Since it is not up or down, then there are naturally only two answers.
1. Rise first and then fall, and shipment priority.
Near 3000 points, the shuffle was completed, and the main force began to rise.
The probability of this kind of market is very high, because from the perspective of the market itself, after a period of rising is completed, there have been very few long-term sideways declines in history.
Even the head of 3731 and the top of 3418 are all long-term sideways trades, first going up, and then building a top pattern.
That's because once it goes sideways, it will be deadlocked, and after the funds are shuffled back and forth, there will be fewer and fewer floating chips.
At this time, if the main force wants to ship, it is bound to rise first, and only after there is a follow-up plate can it escape smoothly.
One of the great features of this type of top is that the high point is not too far from the platform.
If 3000-3100 is an oscillating platform, then the high is also in the 3200-3300 range.
Because the financial strength of the main force is limited, otherwise it would not be so twisted.
Rising first and then falling, for ordinary retail investors, special attention should be paid to.
On the one hand, retail investors with 3000-3100 positions may have high expectations once they start and miss the opportunity to run away.
On the other hand, retail investors with 3000-3100 short positions may flip and enter the market once they start, and it is better to continue to short positions if they receive orders at a high level.
2. Fall first and then rise, and suck chips low.
Falling first and then rising, in fact, is beneficial to retail investors, but the market may not allow it, and it is easy to hit confidence.
3000-3100 Since it's so tiring to go up, why don't you come down.
Nowadays, there are mysterious funds forcibly holding 3,000 points and wanting to do tail market, causing everyone to lose money and not lose index points.
This place, if it can be broken, go down and step back, and then go up will be obviously much more solid.
It's just that there are no funds to dare to smash the market, or to be willing to pay chips to smash the market, resulting in a low probability of 3,000 points breaking again.
But if it breaks, there is no need to panic, just wait for the adjustment to end, and buy and buy.
Going down, the low point of the market is also in the 2820-2850 area, and there will be no deep decline.
This is also the reason why the funds are reluctant to smash the market, the chips are handed over, and there is no lower point to get back.
On the contrary, if it rises above 3200 and then hits back to 2800, there is space.
Although both trends are possible, combined with the current situation, the probability of the former is significantly higher.
The reason why the probability of rising first and then falling is greater is because of the precipitation and distribution of chips.
At 3000 o'clock, those who should get on the bus have already gotten on the bus, and those who should get off have almost gotten off.
There has been a large contraction in the market, which means that the longs and shorts are once again balanced.
This place, if you want to kill, it means that there are not too many funds willing to take over, and it is actually very difficult to ship, and the market is easy to get out of the gloomy situation.
The probability of this situation is actually not high, at least in the context of the current market environment, the probability is relatively low.
But if it rises first and then falls, it is the normal chips and emotions released, breaking through 3200, forcing the bears to turn over and enter, and then return to around 3000 to make adjustments.
In fact, in essence, it depends on the space that the fund wants to operate this year, whether it is mainly above 3,000 points or below 3,000 points.
From a chip point of view, it is safer below 3000 points.
From the point of view of market confidence, a shock above 3000 points will be more attractive.
In short, taking 3000 as a feng shui range, the longer the more selling, the lower the buying, is a more suitable strategy in the current market.
2024 is the year of the layout, the expectations are not too high, just grasp the market that can be grasped.