Today is April 26, 2024.
The overall trend of wheat prices in the country is stable and falling.
The adjustment area involves major provinces and regions such as Shandong and Henan.
The mainstream adjustment range is in the range of 10-30 yuan/ton.
The specific changes are as follows:
Shandong
Flying flour: On April 26, Chen Mai fell 1.5 points and 1.32 yuan per catty.
Henan
Zhiqing noodle industry: On April 26, before the rain, the wheat fell 5% 1.305 yuan / catty.
Except for a small number of enterprises that continue to fall in price, most of the rest of the enterprises have stepped on the brakes - stopped falling and stabilized.
After a long period of baptism of wheat,
Today is an end,
Finally stopped, and I could catch my breath.
Overall, at present, the center of gravity of the purchase price of national enterprises has been shifted down to 1.30 yuan / catty.
Henan's low is approaching 1.20.
The sprouts fell below 1.20, and the low point has reached 1.15 yuan / catty.
However, I am afraid that this is not the end of the matter.
Let's take a look at the wheat auction transaction.
yesterday
Most of the grain storage sales are still unsold, and some of them are all unsold.
Inner Mongolia Branch, plans to sell 2,214 tons of first-class wheat in 2018, with a turnover rate of 50%.
Henan Branch plans to sell 29,678 tons of first-class wheat in 2020-2021, with a turnover rate of 44%.
Shandong Branch plans to sell 8,168 tons of first-class wheat from 2020 to 2022, with a turnover rate of 18%.
Xinjiang Branch, which plans to sell 6,000 tons of first-class wheat in 2019-2020, is all unsold.
Yunnan Branch, which plans to sell 1,669 tons of first-class wheat in 2020, is all unsold.
Guangxi Branch, which plans to sell 4,197 tons of second-class wheat in 2020, is all unsold.
Most of the local sales are still unsold.
Most of the purchases are still traded, and the transaction price and local areas are as follows (the transaction price can be compared for reference):
Medium grain storage
Guizhou Branch, planning to purchase 4,000 tons of third-class and above wheat in 24 years, with a transaction price of 1.3925 yuan/jin, all transactions.
Chengdu Branch plans to purchase 7,698 tons of third-class and above wheat in 24 years, with a transaction price of 1.375-1.395 yuan/jin, and a turnover rate of 46%.
region
The Grain Storage Management Center of Xuecheng District, Zaozhuang City, Shandong Province, plans to purchase 2,200 tons of non-rainy wheat in 2024, with a purchase reserve price of 1.31 yuan/jin and a transaction price of 1.31 yuan/jin, all of which are traded at the reserve price.
Henan Provincial Military Grain Reserve, two-way procurement of 1493.1 tons of mixed wheat in 2024, the purchase floor price is 1.31 yuan/jin, the transaction price is 1.31 yuan/jin, and all the reserve prices are traded.
Funing Local Grain Reserve in Jiangsu Province plans to purchase 12,053 tons of wheat in 2024, with a purchase floor price of 1.32 yuan/jin, a transaction price of 1.298 yuan/jin, and a discount of 44 yuan/ton.
Tianjin Jinghai District Grain Purchase and Sales Co., Ltd. plans to purchase 7,000 tons of hard white wheat in 2024, with a purchase floor price of 1.325 yuan/jin, a transaction price of 1.305 yuan/jin, and a discount of 40 yuan/ton.
Supply remains abundant.
The pattern of oversupply is still relatively obvious.
However, in the future, the release at all levels, led by the central grain reserves, will continue.
The market supply will increase further.
(In order to improve the transaction rate), there is still an expectation of further downward adjustment of the floor price.
In addition, the listing of Xinmai is approaching, and the price of Xinchen is facing convergence.
The characteristics of wheat decline are difficult to change substantially for a while.
The price range is still likely to continue to move downward.
However, judging from the comparison of the current purchase price of enterprises and the recent 2024 new wheat purchase transaction price of grain depots at all levels such as China Grain Storage, most regions have basically approached or flattened.
Some people in the industry believe that in the absence of special factors, the resistance of enterprises to continue to fall sharply may also rise.
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