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Civil aviation flight forecast for the May Day holiday in 2024

author:Civil Aviation Resource Network
Civil aviation flight forecast for the May Day holiday in 2024

The average daily take-off and landing of domestic airports is 30,000

It is expected to become the busiest "May Day" in history

During the "May Day" holiday in 24 years, domestic airports are expected to take off and land 151612 total flights, with an average daily takeoff and landing of 30,322 flights, an increase of 8.99% over the "May Day" holiday in 23 years and an increase of 36.2% over 19 years. The 24-year "May Day" is expected to break the 23-year record and become the busiest in history. Among them, it is estimated that the average daily take-off and landing of domestic flights will be 28,332, an increase of 5.76% year-on-year, and an increase of 41.08% compared with 19 years. The average daily take-off and landing of international flights is expected to be 1,990, a year-on-year increase of 93.24%, and a decrease of 6.19% compared with 19 years.

From April 28, three days before the holiday, to May 8, three days after the holiday, the daily take-off and landing of domestic airports, domestic flight take-offs and landings, and international flights are forecast as follows. Approaching the holiday, the number of takeoffs and landings began to increase, and the number of takeoffs and landings in the middle of the holiday decreased on the 2nd and 3rd, and then increased again, and the number of takeoffs and landings gradually decreased after the holiday. May 5, the last day of the holiday, was the peak of takeoffs and landings, with 31,010 takeoffs and landings from domestic airports.

Civil aviation flight forecast for the May Day holiday in 2024

More than 1,000 takeoffs and landings in 39 cities across the country

More than sixty percent of cities took off and landed more than 19 times in the same period

During the "May Day" holiday, it is expected that 39 cities in China will have more than 1,000 takeoffs and landings, Beijing ranks first with 9,835 takeoffs and landings, and Shanghai, Chengdu and Guangzhou rank second to fourth respectively. Among the 39 cities with more than 1,000 takeoffs and landings, 33 cities are expected to achieve year-on-year growth in takeoffs and landings, of which Hohhot increased by 24.48%, the largest increase. The 39 cities with more than 1,000 takeoffs and landings have all achieved take-off and landing growth compared with 19 years, of which Chengdu has increased by 81.66%, the largest increase.

Among the 246 domestic cities in the statistics, 135 cities have achieved a year-on-year increase in the number of 23-year holidays, accounting for 54.88% of the total number of cities, and 160 cities will achieve an increase in the number of cities compared with the 19-year holidays, accounting for 65.04%.

Civil aviation flight forecast for the May Day holiday in 2024

The top 10 cities expected to take off and land are shown in the figure below. Beijing ranked first in total takeoffs and landings and domestic takeoffs and landings (9,123 sorties), and Shanghai ranked first in international takeoffs and landings (1,341 sorties). Among the top 10 cities, Shanghai had the largest year-on-year increase (18.29%), and Chengdu had the largest increase (81.66%) compared with 19 years. The take-off and landing of the top 10 cities is expected to increase in 23 years and 19 years. International flight movements in the top 10 cities are expected to remain below the level of the same period in 19, and international flights in Chengdu, Kunming and Wuhan are expected to increase year-on-year in 23 years.

Civil aviation flight forecast for the May Day holiday in 2024

19 airlines have more than 1,000 flights

China Eastern Airlines ranked first in terms of flight volume

During the holiday, 41 passenger airlines are expected to operate 77,327 flights, with an average of 15,500 flights per day. China Eastern Airlines is expected to have 12,322 flights, ranking first. China Southern Airlines and Air China ranked second and third with 11,982 flights and 8,544 flights. It is estimated that 19 airlines will have more than 1,000 flights. The flight volume of these 19 airlines is expected to increase compared with 19 years, of which Chengdu Airlines is expected to increase by 1.11 times, the largest increase. 16 of the 19 airlines are expected to achieve year-on-year growth in 23 years, with China Express Airlines increasing by 45.77%, the largest increase.

34 of the 41 airlines are expected to grow their flight volume in 23 years, and 39 airlines are expected to increase their flight volume in 19 years. 15 of the 41 airlines are expected to achieve an increase in international flights compared to 19 years, of which Changlong is expected to increase by 120%, the largest increase.

Civil aviation flight forecast for the May Day holiday in 2024

The domestic Beijing-Shanghai route is the busiest

Shanghai accounts for six of the top 10 international routes

During the holiday, the top 10 domestic round-trip routes are expected to still be routes around first- and second-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chengdu, Hangzhou and Chongqing. The number of Shanghai-Beijing return flights is expected to reach 624, making it the busiest route. Beijing-Chengdu and Shanghai-Shenzhen ranked second and third, respectively. Among the top 10 international routes, it is expected that there will be 6 Shanghai routes, 2 Beijing routes, and one each in Guangzhou and Qingdao. The top 10 routes involve overseas cities including Hong Kong and Taiwan, Tokyo, Osaka and Seoul in Japan and South Korea, and Bangkok in Thailand. Shanghai-Hong Kong and Shanghai-Tokyo are expected to have 264 round-trip flights, ranking joint first. Shanghai-Bangkok and Beijing-Hong Kong ranked second and third, respectively.

Civil aviation flight forecast for the May Day holiday in 2024

Top 10 routes in terms of round-trip flights

Civil aviation flight forecast for the May Day holiday in 2024

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