The situation in Myanmar continues to heat up! After four days of fierce fighting, the Burmese army has recaptured important border towns, and the matter of China's support is getting closer and closer. What are the new trends in the conflict between the Burmese government army and the civilian forces, and why is China's support getting closer and closer?
According to foreign media sources, as the conflict between the Burmese government army and the civilian armed forces has become more and more intense, the border town of Myawaddy in Myanmar has also fallen into the quagmire of "tug-of-war". According to the report, a new round of clashes broke out in Myawaddy on April 20, and after four days of fierce fighting, the counteroffensive of government forces has begun to bear fruit, and the rebel group Karen National Union has temporarily withdrawn from the area.
In view of the outstanding contribution of the Myawaddy region to Myanmar's economic development and its important geographical location, it is not difficult to understand the determination of the Burmese army to organize a counterattack to recapture the region in the first place. Some analysts believe that Myanmar's military junta is facing its biggest crisis since the 2021 coup seizing power as more and more key border areas fall into the hands of rebel groups.
It is important to know that the fact that border residents have become refugees and have poured into neighboring countries in large numbers has affected not only Myanmar's internal security situation, but also the relationship between the Myanmar military junta and neighboring countries. Once the refugee problem intensifies, the Burmese junta will inevitably face a dilemma of internal and external troubles. It is reported that after the "scramble" for Myawaddy, the Thai government has publicly asked Myanmar to ensure that the civil unrest will not spill over to Thailand.
After all, no one knows whether the rebel forces will inflict "accidental wounds" on the Thai side while attacking the government forces that retreated to the vicinity of the Burma-Thailand Friendship Bridge. As far as the current situation is concerned, although the Burmese army has regained control of Myawaddy and most of the Burmese refugees who have fled to Thailand have returned to their homes, the situation in the region and even in Myanmar as a whole is still not optimistic. Myanmar security analysts believe that the rebels will not stop there, and that the latter may re-attack Myawaddy after consolidating their positions, which is likely to accelerate the escalation.
In view of the fact that the border of Mae Sot town cannot be reopened as soon as it is not reopened, the trade along the Thai-Myanmar border will be seriously affected, and it has to be said that it is not only the Burmese people who hope that the Burmese government army will cease fire and negotiate peace with the rebel forces, but also a number of Burma's neighboring countries represented by Thailand and China. According to sources, the Thai Foreign Ministry has contacted Laos, Indonesia, Malaysia, and other countries and hopes to hold a meeting to discuss how to resolve the Burmese crisis.
A few days ago, ASEAN foreign ministers also issued a joint statement, calling on all parties to the conflict in Myanmar to immediately stop armed violence and take all necessary measures to ease domestic tensions and ensure the safety of the people. As everyone knows, since the October 27 incident, China has been paying close attention to the domestic situation in Myanmar and has made outstanding contributions to promoting peace talks. In the face of the situation in Myanmar, which has not yet been restored after the signing of the ceasefire agreement, and the armed conflict that broke out in the Myawaddy region, China has also responded quite positively this time.
In the words of Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian, China calls on all parties to cease fire and stop hostilities, resolve Africa peacefully through dialogue and consultation, and avoid escalation. Judging from the current situation, although the domestic situation in Myanmar is still not optimistic, China's support is getting closer and closer. This is partly because Thailand has received reports that rival groups in Myanmar may begin negotiations on a ceasefire, and partly because the former State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi has moved from imprisonment to house arrest, and the Burmese junta has softened its stance from being locked up at home.
Some analysts have pointed out that at a time when international circles are calling on the Burmese military junta to "unconditionally release" Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners, the Min Aung Hlaing government's move clearly gives people a sense of "softness." You know, although house arrest does not mean that the junta has pardoned the crimes of Aung San Suu Kyi and others, it at least means that there is room for negotiation. If the resistance forces in Myanmar can receive this "signal" and resolve the existing contradictions between the two sides through communication and negotiation rather than bloodshed, there may not be no possibility of a ceasefire between the two sides of the conflict in the short term.