I originally thought that the global demand for chips had begun to recover, but I didn't expect that although it had picked up, it still did not meet expectations.
Although at the beginning of the year, thanks to the rapid development of the artificial intelligence industry, the demand for AI chips increased rapidly, TSMC also received a large number of AI chip foundry orders from many American AI chip manufacturers such as AMD and NVIDIA. However, judging from the current situation, the strong demand for AI chips still has not filled the demand for chips.
Just recently, TSMC has officially announced that it has lowered its forecast for a 20% increase in global foundry output value estimated in January to between 14% and 19%. It is worth noting that in 2023 compared with 2022, the chip industry chain will have a considerable decline in both demand and output value.
This also means that although TSMC believes that the global wafer foundry output value will increase in 2024, it is still difficult to recover the level of 2022 under such a low increase. Compared to the rise, it is actually more like a recovery.
In fact, TSMC is not the only semiconductor company in the world that can't bear it, basically except for Nvidia, which stepped on the AI chip outlet and shipped a large number of AI chips, other semiconductor giants will not have a good time from 2023.
For example, judging from ASML's financial report data for the first quarter, the shipment of lithography machines in the first quarter was 70 units, a decrease of 54 units compared with the fourth quarter of 2023, which is equivalent to a decrease of about 40%. Many people think that this is related to ASML's inability to continue to ship DUV lithography machines to the Chinese market, but from the data released by ASML, it can be seen that ASML's revenue from the Chinese market has continued to increase to 49%. You must know that ASML's lithography machines shipped to the Chinese market are basically low-end, which means that 49% of the revenue accounts for more than half in terms of quantity alone.
There are also manufacturers such as Samsung and Intel, who have also cut their spending budgets, and in 2023, there will be varying degrees of revenue and net profit declines, and even Samsung will have a lot of losses in the semiconductor field. After entering 2024, judging from the first-quarter data released by major semiconductor manufacturers, although there has been a recovery, it is still not ideal.
Today, TSMC, Samsung and Intel, in addition to accelerating the development of the latest 2nm process chips, have also begun to build factories around the world to expand production capacity. Intel is doing this to enhance its influence in the field of chip manufacturing, after all, Intel has just restarted its chip foundry business and needs more order support, and TSMC is to gain more market share.
Not long ago, TSMC also added $25 billion to the United States to build a 2nm process chip factory, although it received a subsidy of $6.6 billion, but it is still a large expenditure for TSMC. In order to cope with the decline in revenue, TSMC has repeatedly announced price increases, and judging from the news revealed by this TSMC, it is expected that the price will increase by up to 6% in 2024.
With the acceleration of the construction of factories by TSMC, Intel and other manufacturers, it has further led to overcapacity, and from the current situation, it is difficult for chip demand to recover in a short period of time, and TSMC and Intel are now facing a lot of pressure.
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