Since Biden took office, he has vigorously promoted strategic competition with China, repaired the US-alliance relationship that continued to deteriorate during the Trump administration, and built a number of "mini-multilateral" mechanisms. The United States regards the Asia-Pacific region as a bridgehead for its great power competition with China, continues to increase investment in strategic resources, and is committed to building an "iron triangle" alliance between the United States, Japan and South Korea. Recently, however, there have been faint signs of collapse in this "small group" to contain China.
The heads of state of both countries are in a "governing crisis"
Recently, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida have both fallen into a "governing crisis".
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's cabinet approval rating has been below 30% in the polls for six consecutive times. Fumio Kishida tried to seize the opportunity to get rid of the decline and launch a counteroffensive through his visit to the United States, but it backfired and it was a failure. In the shadow of the LDP faction's takeback issue, Kishida continues to struggle. The opposition parties will go toe-to-toe through a debate in the Diet and three by-elections to the House of Representatives. This also reflects the dissatisfaction of the Japanese people with the Liberal Democratic Party's "withholding back" scandal and Kishida's response.
Kishida had hoped to highlight the outcome of his talks with U.S. President Joe Biden to boost his approval ratings. But it seems to have had limited success. According to the latest opinion poll in Japan, 93.3% of respondents said that they "did not fully ascertain the actual situation" on the issue of "withholding back", and 88.0% of LDP supporters, and 78.4% of respondents said that they "could not agree" with the verdict that Kishida himself was not punished, and the proportion was as high as 60.9% among LDP supporters.
Akira Nagazuma, the head of the political polling committee of Japan's Constitutional Democratic Party, accused the LDP of not taking political corruption seriously. As the next House of Representatives election approaches, the opposition parties will also lash out at Kishida's Liberal Democratic Party over the issue.
In addition, the continued downturn in Japan's economy is also a major "culprit" dragging down the approval rating of the Kishida government. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a report that expects Japan's economic growth to slow from 1.9% in 2023 to 0.9% in 2024 and 1% in 2025.
In Japan, a cabinet approval rating below 30% is seen as entering a "danger zone", and if it falls below 20%, it faces the risk of stepping down. The Kishida administration's unpopularity is bound to constrain its foreign policy.
South Korea's Yoon Suk-yeol is not having a good time here. According to a survey recently released by Realmeter, a South Korean polling agency, the public's favorable rating of President Yoon Suk-yeol's governance performance was 32.3%, a 19-month low, and the negative rating was as high as 64.3%. Some time ago, Yoon Suk-yeol suffered a crushing defeat in the parliamentary elections, and the opposition party became one of the largest majorities in the National Assembly in recent decades. In this regard, the Korean people use the term "Judgment Day" to describe the significance of the National Assembly election. South Korean politicians, media outlets, and party critics continue to blast Yoon for being "out of touch" with ordinary people, for his inappropriate treatment of the opposition, the protracted strike of doctors, and his handling of corruption allegations involving his wife, Kim Keon-hee.
While foreign policy remains dictated by South Korea's president, Yoon's waning domestic standing could be an obstacle to his foreign policy.
The structural contradictions between Japan and South Korea are difficult to reconcile
In recent years, with the in-depth evolution of the Sino-US game and the continued tension on the Korean Peninsula, the strategic anxiety of the United States, Japan and South Korea has risen. Out of consideration for their own security and interests, the three parties have formed a geopolitical "small group" under the banner of so-called "safeguarding regional security" to keep warm. Under the mediation of the United States, the relationship between South Korea and Japan has continued to get closer, and exchanges and interactions at various levels have been frequent. In August 2023, the "Camp David Summit" of the heads of state of the United States, Japan and South Korea also marked the formal formation of this "iron triangle" alliance, which was evaluated by the outside world as a "historic" qualitative change in trilateral relations.
From the perspective of the United States, of course, we hope that Japan and South Korea will resolve their contradictions. In the current international situation, Japan and the ROK are important pawns of the United States in the Far East to contain the mainland, restrain Russia, and contain the DPRK. Eliminating the contradictions between Japan and South Korea and strengthening the binding of the interests of the three countries is an important measure for the United States to integrate its Asia-Pacific allies.
However, Japan and South Korea themselves have structural contradictions on issues such as history and territory. Against the backdrop of increasingly serious domestic contradictions, there have also been changes in the relations between Japan and South Korea.
On April 16, the Japanese government released the 2024 version of the "Diplomatic Blue Book", which did not change the relevant statement that the disputed islands (known as "Takeshima" in Japan and "Dokdo" in South Korea) are Japanese territory, triggering strong protests from the South Korean government and urging the Japanese side to withdraw. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea summoned Minister Taisuke Minori of the Japanese Embassy in South Korea to protest against the statement on the territorial issue in the new version of the "Blue Book of Diplomacy" in Japan.
On April 21, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida offered sacrifices to the Yasukuni Shrine in the name of "Prime Minister". This has also caused strong dissatisfaction among the South Korean people. A spokesman for the South Korean Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the South Korean side "expressed deep disappointment and regret" over Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and other high-level political leaders offering offerings to the Yasukuni Shrine.
The United States, Japan, and South Korea contain China's small groups, "each with its own ghosts"
The deepening of Japan-ROK relations and the continuous strengthening of its ties with the United States are the result of the superposition of internal strategic drivers and external catalysts between the two countries. Among them, the United States has played an important role in "threading the needle". However, with the decline in the approval ratings of Japan's Kishida government and South Korea's Yoon Suk-yeol government, both of them have fallen into a governance crisis, and the structural contradictions between Japan and South Korea around history, territory and other issues have risen, and the "iron triangle" between the United States, Japan and South Korea has also shown signs of collapse.
Japan and South Korea have extensive commercial interests with China, and China is the largest trading partner of Japan and South Korea. Although in recent years, at the instigation of the United States, Japan and South Korea have intended to reduce their economic dependence on China and trace the US government's "decoupling" from China. However, in the context of the current downward pressure on the global economy, economic and trade cooperation with China is related to the economy and people's livelihood, and the quality of the economy is related to the stability of governance. Therefore, Japan and South Korea are limited in their efforts to follow the United States in containing China, and behind this is that Japan and South Korea cannot afford the risk of completely "tearing their faces" with China.
In Japan's new "Diplomatic Blue Book", the expression "Japan-China strategic reciprocal relationship" has been restored after five years. On the South Korean side, although it has given priority to the ROK-US alliance, it has relied heavily on China in the economic and other fields, and has been more cautious on sensitive issues related to China and joining the "Quadrilateral Dialogue" mechanism between the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, so as to avoid arousing dissatisfaction on the mainland. In addition, there is also a certain temperature difference between the ROK and the United States on issues such as the transfer of operational command in wartime and the stance on the DPRK. The collapse of the "small group" of the United States, Japan, and South Korea to contain China may be a matter of time before it collapses due to the asymmetry of their respective interests.