In the government work report in March, the state clearly stated that it would continue to increase the basic pension of retirees. The time is about to enter May, and according to the announcement time of the national pension adjustment notice in 2022 and 2023, it is expected that the national pension adjustment notice will be announced at the end of May.
The notice of pension adjustment mainly includes the scope of pension adjustment in the current year, the start and end time of pension adjustment, the overall level and requirements of pension adjustment, the method of pension adjustment, the source of funds, the organization and implementation, etc.
The overall level of pension adjustment may be the part that everyone is most concerned about, and the adjustment level has shown a gradual downward trend in recent years. From 2008 to 2015, it was 10 per cent, but this year was the adjustment level for corporate retirees. In 2016, it was 6.5%, and from this year, we implemented the unified adjustment of pensions for enterprises and government institutions. Due to the low level of pensions for enterprise retirees, the state gives a tilt in the adjustment range. In fact, the average adjustment rate of retirees in enterprises is much higher than that of retirees in government agencies and institutions.
The pension adjustment was 5.5% in 2017, 5% from 2018 to 2020, 4.5% in 2021, 4% in 2022 and 3.8% in 2023. On what basis is the increase in pensions determined?
According to the provisions of the Social Insurance Law, the State shall establish a mechanism for the normal adjustment of basic pensions. According to the increase in the average wage of employees and the rise in prices, the level of basic pension insurance benefits should be increased in a timely manner.
According to the national unified pension calculation formula, the pension mainly includes the basic pension and the personal account pension, and there are transitional pensions for individual personnel. Both the basic pension and the transitional pension are linked to the average salary of the previous year of retirement. Once the year is crossed, the average salary of the new year must be used. If the average salary increases, the pension will increase. Therefore, the increase of pension should be comprehensively considered according to the increase of social average wages. Since the pension part of the personal account is not linked to the average salary, the overall increase in the pension is lower than the growth rate of the average salary.
In 2023, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide will be 22,053 yuan, with a growth rate of 7.1%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points over the previous year. It shows that theoretically, the upper limit of the pension can be increased is higher.
But we also have to consider the issue of price growth. In 2023, our prices will increase by only 0.2%, 1.8 percentage points lower than the previous year. However, this year's price control target is 3.0% (it has been 3.0% for many years), so generally speaking, the pension growth rate will not be less than 3.0%.
The growth of social wage and price growth are two important factors affecting the growth rate of pensions, and the third important factor is the affordability of pension insurance funds.
In 2022, the total income of the basic pension insurance fund for employees in mainland China will be 6,332.4 billion yuan, the expenditure will be 5,903.5 billion yuan, and the balance will be 5,689 billion yuan. In addition, the National Council of Social Security Fund also manages 2.59 trillion yuan of social security fund equity. The income and expenditure of the social security fund can also maintain an effective balance.
However, the trend of aging in the mainland is under great pressure on the growth of pension insurance funds. In 2023, the number of people over the age of 60 on the mainland increased by 16.93 million from the previous season. As the population born in the baby boom era in 1962~1973 enters the age of 60 one after another, the pressure on pension will become greater and greater.
Since the annual pension decline will not exceed the previous year (0.2%), the pension increase in 2024 may not increase, and the probability will fluctuate between 3.6% and 3.8%. #头条创作挑战赛#