As the day of the handover of power in the Taiwan region approaches on 20 May, the activity of the Taiwan independence forces on the island is also increasing. Lai Qingde's deputy, Xiao Meiqin, visited Europe earlier and lobbied for Lai Qingde to support political forces such as the Czech Republic, a traditional anti-China country in Europe, and Kosovo.
Lai Ching-te, the incoming new leader of the Taiwan region
The DPP authorities, which do not have many so-called "countries with diplomatic relations," are now counting on these foreign anti-China forces to support the scene and participate in Lai Qingde's inauguration ceremony, so that Lai Qingde will not be so "alone" at that time.
It can be said that the upcoming handover of power on 20 May on Taiwan has been planned by the DPP authorities as an "anti-China rally." Whenever we talk about anti-China forces abroad, one name that has been indispensable over the years is India.
India has begun to test the attitude of the Taiwan authorities
Although there is no clear information on whether the Indian side will participate in the 520 political transition on the island and who it will send to participate in the transfer of power on the island of Taiwan, there has been quite a lot of noise on the Indian side involving the Taiwan Strait recently.
Hu Shana, India Postdoctoral Researcher, Asia Foundation, Taiwan (left)
According to a comprehensive report by many Taiwan media such as "Today's Weekly", Hu Shana, an Indian postdoctoral researcher at the Taiwan Asia Foundation, recently publicly stated that the reason why the Indian government chose to strengthen ties with Taiwan is indeed partly due to bad relations with Chinese mainland, and the Indian government is less and less interested in the "red line" drawn by China, but Taiwan has indeed attracted India's attention to a certain extent.
Subsequently, the Indian researcher in Taiwan changed his tune, claiming that the Indian government is now interested in "strengthening interaction" with Taiwan and even providing "protection" to Taiwan. However, this is not without conditions, stressing that Taiwan must not only take the "first step" but also take three steps forward, and Taiwan must give India what it wants, that is, more "economy, science and technology, and investment."
This condition given by India to the Taiwan authorities is very much in line with India's consistent characteristic of "no profit and no sooner rather than early," and of course it can also be said that it "hits the Taiwan authorities' vital point in a targeted manner."
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi
The former can be a direct "gold-yuan diplomacy" by the Taiwan authorities to send money to India, or it can be to buy a large amount of Indian export commodities at a high price and send money to India in disguise.
The latter's "investment in India" will help India boost the economy, create jobs, and strengthen its position in the global supply chain on the one hand, and on the other hand, it can also obtain some good industries from Taiwan.
Combined with the fact that the conditions offered by India include "science and technology", it can basically be concluded that India is also eyeing the fat of "TSMC" and has started the idea of Taiwan's semiconductor industry.
TSMC
The current situation is that not only the Taiwan authorities themselves are treating TSMC as a treasure, the United States is trying to relocate TSMC to the United States, preparing for decoupling and even armed confrontation with China, and India also wants to take advantage of the opportunity of the United States to eat TSMC's meat and take a bite of soup. On the other hand, on the Taiwan side, it is indeed difficult to have any resistance to India's conditions of cooperation.
Failed Taiwan Authorities' "Diplomatic Relations"
Since Tsai Ing-wen came to power and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) came to power, the Taiwan authorities have engaged in a lot of "gold-yuan diplomacy" and sent a lot of money out, but the actual results they got backfired on their wishes.
Not only are there fewer and fewer so-called "countries with diplomatic relations," but the few "countries with diplomatic relations" that still maintain ties with each other are partly small countries that have a combined population and a large county population in order to maintain the "diplomatic face" of the Taiwan authorities under the influence of the United States.
The United States has also been thinking about TSMC for a long time
On the other hand, they are waiting for the Taiwan authorities to "pay tribute on time," which is a pure relationship of "you give the money, and I will pay the name." They are also small countries that only have nominal meaning but no practical significance.
The Taiwan authorities, who have always attached importance to "taking an international view," are certainly not satisfied with such a "diplomatic dilemma." And Lai Qingde is about to take over Tsai Ing-wen's position and take power, whether from the perspective of practical difficulties or prestige, Lai Qingde has a great willingness to make some "good-looking political achievements", including but not limited to the so-called "major diplomatic breakthrough".
At this juncture, India has thrown out to the Taiwan authorities opportunities for cooperation, including "protection." It should be said that the Indians are quite good at picking the right time, and they have also scratched the Taiwan authorities the most itchy point.
Among the few remaining single-digit "countries with diplomatic relations," it is difficult for the Taiwan authorities, who do not even have a medium-sized country, to refuse an opportunity from a regional power like India.
More importantly, the Indians themselves have made it clear that there is a so-called "common enemy" between the Taiwan authorities and India -- Chinese mainland, which means that there is a possibility of military cooperation between India and the Taiwan authorities.
In addition, India has made it clear that it can "protect" Taiwan, and the hint of military cooperation is very obvious, and for the Taiwan authorities, it is full of temptations that are difficult to refuse.
To sum up, there is a high probability that the Taiwan authorities after Lai Ching-te takes office will further strengthen their "cooperative relationship" with India. It is not even ruled out that India may provide weapons to the Taiwan authorities and take concrete actions to support Lai Ching-te in "resisting reunification by force" by selling Taiwan's economic, industrial, and financial revenues.
India may supply weapons to the Taiwan authorities
Looking at the arsenal of the Indians, it is not difficult to find that India actually still has some weapons that the Taiwan military is interested in and will pose an actual threat to the PLA. For example, the BrahMos supersonic anti-ship missile, jointly developed by India and Russia, has an effective range of up to 800 kilometers, which the Indians claim.
Indian "BrahMos" supersonic anti-ship missile
Even if the export type is calculated at 300 kilometers, the range of its launch from the main island of Taiwan is enough to hit all ports along the coast of the mainland and cover China's naval bases.
If it is deployed to Penghu or even Kinmen, the range will be enough to cover a considerable part of Chinese mainland. Moreover, this type of missile has a considerable degree of penetration capability, and the final strike speed is close to Mach 3, which is considered to be a heavy anti-ship missile of the international advanced level in various indicators.
And because the "BrahMos" directly copied the technical design of the Russian-made "Onyx" supersonic anti-ship missile, it is essentially the Indian version of the Russian-made missile, and its reliability is much stronger than that of India's self-developed weapons and equipment, and it is one of the few weapons in India's arsenal with "good and reliable performance".
If India really exports a certain amount of this missile to the Taiwan authorities, it will indeed be very much in line with Lai Ching-te's goal of "resisting reunification by force" and building up a "deterrence" capability against the mainland, and the two sides can be said to have hit it off.
Now, India has handed over the "BrahMos" to the Philippines, which is also at odds with China and frequently provokes trouble in the South China Sea. In order for the Philippines to establish the ability to directly hit Ren'ai Jiao with missiles, it will be more convenient to use the beached landing ship to create incidents.
With such a precedent, it is difficult to say that the Indians will not "make two mistakes" and create trouble for China by copying military support for the Philippines and aiding the Taiwan authorities by force.
The Pakistan Air Force has received rave reviews of the J-10C and made it clear that it expects more advanced Chinese fighters
But India's strategy doesn't actually make much sense. If India can provide arms assistance to the Taiwan authorities to counter China, then China can also provide Pakistan with similar, if not more and more reciprocal weapons, in reciprocal terms, so that the Indians will be even more caught in the throat and pay the price twice for their reckless actions.
After all, China is much stronger than India in terms of the amount of equipment available for export in its arsenal.
Some of the information sources in the article:
Indian media broadcast an interview with the head of Taiwan's foreign affairs department, and China strongly condemned it丨Beijing Daily